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A Leading Indicator of Austrian Exports Based on Truck Mileage

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Abstract

The close correlation between economic activity and freight performance is emphasized in numerous international studies. With regard to Austria, timely information on truck mileage has been available since 2004 when Austria introduced road pricing. In this study, truck road pricing data compiled by the Austrian highway authority (ASFINAG) are analyzed for the first time with respect to their adequacy as a leading indicator for various macroeconomic indicators. The results show that truck mileage is a good leading indicator above all for goods exports. The timely availability provides an information advantage in analyzing economic developments of two to three months relative to the first release of export data by Statistics Austria.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerhard Fenz & Martin Schneider, 2009. "A Leading Indicator of Austrian Exports Based on Truck Mileage," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 44-52.
    • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbmp:y:2009:i:1:b:3
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. António Rua & Nuno Lourenço, 2020. "The DEI: tracking economic activity daily during the lockdown," Working Papers w202013, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    2. Döhrn, Roland, 2013. "Transportation Data as a Tool for Nowcasting Economic Activity – The German Road Pricing System as an Example," Ruhr Economic Papers 395, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    3. Roland Döhrn, 2013. "Transportation Data as a Tool for Nowcasting Economic Activity – The German Road Pricing System as an Example," Ruhr Economic Papers 0395, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    4. Lourenço, Nuno & Rua, António, 2021. "The Daily Economic Indicator: tracking economic activity daily during the lockdown," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    5. repec:zbw:rwirep:0395 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. António Rua & Paulo Esteves, 2012. "Short-term forecasting for the portuguese economy: a methodological overview," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    7. Gerhard Fenz & Helmut Stix, 2021. "Monitoring the economy in real time with the weekly OeNB GDP indicator: background, experience and outlook," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q4/20-Q1/, pages 17-40.
    8. Christian Ragacs & Klaus Vondra, 2009. "Economic Crisis Unleashes Deep Recession in Austria – Stabilization Expected at Year-End," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 6-40.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    leading indicator; transport volume; export activity; business cycle; forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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