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Tracking weekly state-level economic conditions

Author

Listed:
  • Christiane Baumeister
  • Danilo Leiva-León
  • Eric Sims

Abstract

In this paper, we develop a novel dataset of weekly economic conditions indices for the 50 U.S. states going back to 1987 based on mixed-frequency dynamic factor models with weekly, monthly, and quarterly variables that cover multiple dimensions of state economies. We show that there is considerable heterogeneity in the length, depth, and timing of business cycles across individual states. We assess the role of states in national recessions and propose an aggregate indicator that allows us to gauge the overall weakness of the U.S. economy. We also illustrate the usefulness of these state-level indices for quantifying the main forces contributing to the economic collapse caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and for evaluating the e effectiveness of federal economic policies like the Paycheck Protection Program.

Suggested Citation

  • Christiane Baumeister & Danilo Leiva-León & Eric Sims, 2021. "Tracking weekly state-level economic conditions," CAMA Working Papers 2021-55, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2021-55
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    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2021-07/55_2021_baumeister_leiva-leon_sims0.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Rueben Ellul & Germano Ruisi, 2022. "Nowcasting the Maltese economy with a dynamic factor model," CBM Working Papers WP/02/2022, Central Bank of Malta.
    3. Kohns, David & Potjagailo, Galina, 2023. "Flexible Bayesian MIDAS: time‑variation, group‑shrinkage and sparsity," Bank of England working papers 1025, Bank of England.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    local economic conditions; government policies; weekly indicators; state economies; cross-state heterogeneity; mixed-frequency dynamic factor model; economic weakness index; Markov-switching; recession probabilities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

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