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Tracking weekly state-level economic conditions

Author

Listed:
  • Christiane Baumeister
  • Danilo Leiva-León
  • Eric Sims

Abstract

In this paper, we develop a novel dataset of weekly economic conditions indices for the 50 U.S. states going back to 1987 based on mixed-frequency dynamic factor models with weekly, monthly, and quarterly variables that cover multiple dimensions of state economies. We show that there is considerable heterogeneity in the length, depth, and timing of business cycles across individual states. We assess the role of states in national recessions and propose an aggregate indicator that allows us to gauge the overall weakness of the U.S. economy. We also illustrate the usefulness of these state-level indices for quantifying the main forces contributing to the economic collapse caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and for evaluating the e effectiveness of federal economic policies like the Paycheck Protection Program.

Suggested Citation

  • Christiane Baumeister & Danilo Leiva-León & Eric Sims, 2021. "Tracking weekly state-level economic conditions," CAMA Working Papers 2021-55, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2021-55
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    Cited by:

    1. Trinh, Hai Hong & Tran, Thao Phuong, 2024. "Global banking systems, financial stability, and uncertainty: How have countries coped with geopolitical risks?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    2. Matteo Bonato & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2025. "Electricity Sales and Forecasting of Stock Market Realized Volatility: A State-Level Analysis of the United States," Working Papers 202540, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Raimondo Pala, 2025. "The causal interpretation of panel vector autoregressions," Papers 2510.23540, arXiv.org.
    4. MeiChi Huang, 2025. "Revisiting housing asset pricing: uncertainty and business-cycle factors in US state-level housing markets," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 74(1), pages 1-25, March.
    5. Lyu, Yongjian & Zhang, Xinyu & Cao, Jin & Liu, Jiatao & Yang, Mo, 2024. "Quantitative easing and the spillover effects from the crude oil market to other financial markets: Evidence from QE1 to QE3," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    6. Andrew B. Martinez, 2025. "How do Macroeconomic Expectations React to Extreme Weather Shocks?," Working Papers 2025-001, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    7. Mitchell, James & Shiroff, Taylor, 2025. "Are revisions to state-level GDP data in the US well behaved?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    8. Alvaro Ortiz & Tomasa Rodrigo & David Sarasa & Sirenia Vazquez, 2025. "What Can 240,000 New Credit Transactions Tell Us About the Impact of NGEU Funds?," Papers 2504.01964, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2025.
    9. Miguel A. Mascarúa Lara, 2024. "Heterogeneous recessions and expansions in Mexican regions and sectors," Working Papers 2024-13, Banco de México.
    10. Emanuele Bacchiocchi & Andrea Bastianin & Graziano Moramarco, 2026. "Macroeconomic Spillovers of Weather Shocks Across U.S. States," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 88(1), pages 141-156, February.
    11. Arora, Parush & Tran, Derek, 2025. "Central bank intervention and bank liquidity: Evidence from the paycheck protection program," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    12. Abeeb Olaniran & Xin Sheng & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta, 2025. "Climate Shocks and Unemployment Claims," Working Papers 202536, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    13. Sheng, Xin & Marfatia, Hardik A. & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2023. "The non-linear response of US state-level tradable and non-tradable inflation to oil shocks: The role of oil-dependence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    14. Xin Sheng & Rangan Gupta & Wenting Liao & Oguzhan Cepni, 2024. "The Effects of Uncertainty on Economic Conditions across US States: The Role of Climate Risks," Working Papers 202410, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    15. Ignacio Garr'on & Andrey Ramos, 2025. "High-frequency Density Nowcasts of U.S. State-Level Carbon Dioxide Emissions," Papers 2501.03380, arXiv.org.
    16. Rueben Ellul & Germano Ruisi, 2022. "Nowcasting the Maltese economy with a dynamic factor model," CBM Working Papers WP/02/2022, Central Bank of Malta.
    17. Emiliozzi, Simone & Rondinelli, Concetta & Villa, Stefania, 2025. "Unveiling consumption patterns during COVID-19: Insights from credit cards," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    18. Andrew B. Martinez, 2025. "Real-time Hurricane Damage Nowcasts," Working Papers 2025-006, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    19. Baioni Tomás, 2025. "The macroeconomic effects of carbon pricing at a subnational level: evidence from California’s cap and trade," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 27(2), pages 305-330, April.
    20. Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem & Vinh Vo, Xuan, 2025. "The “effect modifier” of US interest rate in the economic policy uncertainties and economic conditions of fifty (50) US states: A semi-parametric smooth varying-coefficient approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(PA).
    21. Andriantomanga, Zo & Kishor, N. Kundan & Kumar, Labesh, 2025. "Interest Rate Misalignments and Monetary Policy Effects: Evidence from U.S. States," MPRA Paper 124748, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. David Kohns & Galina Potjagailo, 2023. "Flexible Bayesian MIDAS: time‑variation, group‑shrinkage and sparsity," Bank of England working papers 1025, Bank of England.
    23. Donayre, Luiggi & Loomer, Lacey, 2025. "Regime-dependent health care employment dynamics in recessions," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2).
    24. Shi, Shimeng & Zhai, Jia, 2024. "California carbon allowance futures," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    25. Andrew B. Martinez & Alexander D. Schibuola & David Beckworth, 2025. "The Reliability of the Nominal GDP Expectations Gap," Working Papers 2025-004, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

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