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Are Revisions to State-Level GDP Data in the US Well Behaved?

Author

Listed:
  • James Mitchell
  • Taylor Shiroff

Abstract

No, first estimates of state GDP growth are not rational forecasts, except for Georgia. Revisions to first estimates of state-level GDP growth tend to be biased, large, and/or predictable using information known at the time of the first estimate.

Suggested Citation

  • James Mitchell & Taylor Shiroff, 2025. "Are Revisions to State-Level GDP Data in the US Well Behaved?," Working Papers 25-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwq:99878
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-202511
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
    2. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    data revisions; real-time data; state GDP; forecast efficiency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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