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Real-Time Data Revisions and the PCE Measure of Inflation

  • Tierney, Heather L.R.

This paper tracks data revisions in the Personal Consumption Expenditure using the exclusions-from-core inflation persistence model. Keeping the number of observations the same, the regression parameters of earlier vintages of real-time data, beginning with vintage 1996:Q1, are tested for coincidence against the regression parameters of the last vintage of real-time data used in this paper, which is vintage 2008:Q2 in a parametric and two nonparametric frameworks. The effects of data revisions are not detectable in the vast majority of cases in the parametric model, but the flexibility of the two nonparametric models is able to utilize the data revisions.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/20625/1/MPRA_paper_20625.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 20625.

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Date of creation: 01 Feb 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:20625
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  1. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "A real-time data set for marcoeconomists: does the data vintage matter?," Working Papers 99-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  2. Stark, Tom & Croushore, Dean, 2002. "Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 507-531, December.
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  14. Tierney, Heather L.R., 2009. "Examining the Ability of Core Inflation to Capture the Overall Trend of Total Inflation," MPRA Paper 22409, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2010.
  15. Oliver LINTON, . "Applied nonparametric methods," Statistic und Oekonometrie 9312, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
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  23. Chauvet, Marcelle & Tierney, Heather L. R., 2007. "Real Time Changes in Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 16199, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2009.
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  26. Cai, Zongwu, 2007. "Trending time-varying coefficient time series models with serially correlated errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 163-188, January.
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  30. Dean Croushore, 2008. "Revisions to PCE inflation measures: implications for monetary policy," Working Papers 08-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  31. Chi-Young Choi, 2010. "Reconsidering the Relationship between Inflation and Relative Price Variability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(5), pages 769-798, 08.
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