Inflation Dynamics in the US -A Nonlinear Perspective
A stylized fact of US inflation dynamics is one of extreme persistence and possible unit root behavior. If so, the implications for macroeconomics and monetary policy are somewhat unpalatable. Our econometric analysis proposes a parsimonious representation of the inflation process, the nonlinear ESTAR, rather than the IMA process with time-varying parameters as in Stock and Watson (2007). The empirical results confirm a number of the key features such as regime changes and implicit Federal Reserve inflationtargets. We address the issue of whether the source of the Great Moderation can be ascribed to good luck rather than good policy.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dolado, Juan José & Ruge Murcia, F. J. & Ramón, Maria Dolores, 2002.
"Nonlinear monetary policy rules: some new evidence for the US,"
UC3M Working papers. Economics
we022910, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
- Dolado Juan & Pedrero Ramón María-Dolores & Ruge-Murcia Francisco J., 2004. "Nonlinear Monetary Policy Rules: Some New Evidence for the U.S," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 1-34, September.
- Dolado, Juan J. & María-Dolores, Ramón & Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 2002. "Non-Linear Monetary Policy Rules: Some New Evidence for the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 3405, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- DOLADO, J.J. & MARIA-DOLORES, R. & RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 2003. "Nonlinear Monetary Policy Rules: Some New Evidence for the U.S," Cahiers de recherche 18-2003, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- DOLADO, J.J. & MARIA-DOLORES, R. & RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 2003. "Nonlinear Monetary Policy Rules: Some New Evidence for the U.S," Cahiers de recherche 2003-24, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Byers, J D & Peel, D A, 2000. "Non-linear Dynamics of Inflation in High Inflation Economies," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(0), pages 23-37, Supplemen.
- Harris, David & McCabe, Brendan & Leybourne, Stephen, 2003. "Some Limit Theory For Autocovariances Whose Order Depends On Sample Size," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(05), pages 829-864, October.
- Aksoy, Yunus & Orphanides, Athanasios & Small, David & Wieland, Volker & Wilcox, David, 2006.
"A quantitative exploration of the opportunistic approach to disinflation,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1877-1893, November.
- Aksoy, Yunus & Orphanides, Athanasios & Small, David & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "A quantitative exploration of the opportunistic approach to disinflation," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/19, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Aksoy, Yunus & Orphanides, Athanasios & Small, David & Wieland, Volker & Wilcox, David, 2003. "A Quantitative Exploration of the Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4073, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Athanasios Orphanides & David H. Small & Volker W. Wieland & David W. Wilcox, 1997. "A quantitative exploration of the opportunistic approach to disinflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jurgen, 1995. "Long Memory in Inflation Rates: International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 37-45, January.
- Philip Hans Franses & Marius Ooms & Charles S. Bos, 1999.
"Long memory and level shifts: Re-analyzing inflation rates,"
Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 427-449.
- Charles S. Bos & Philip Hans Franses & Marius Ooms, 1998. "Long Memory and Level Shifts: Re-Analyzing Inflation Rates," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 98-039/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Ooms, M. & Bos, C.S., 1998. "Long memory and level shifts: re-analysing inflation rates," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9811, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "A Fractional Cointegration Analysis of Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 103-12, January.
- Andros Gregoriou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2006.
"Inflation Targeting And The Stationarity Of Inflation: New Results From An Estar Unit Root Test,"
Bulletin of Economic Research,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 309-322, October.
- Andros Gregoriou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2005. "Inflation Targeting and the Stationarity of Inflation: New Results from an ESTAR Unit Root Test," Working Papers 2005_10, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Pippenger, Michael K & Goering, Gregory E, 1993. "A Note on the Empirical Power of Unit Root Tests under Threshold Processes," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(4), pages 473-81, November.
- John H. Cochrane, 2007.
"Determinacy and Identification with Taylor Rules,"
NBER Working Papers
13409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Enders, Walter & Granger, C. W. J., 1998.
"Unit Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates,"
Staff General Research Papers Archive
1388, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Enders, Walter & Granger, Clive W J, 1998. "Unit-Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 304-11, July.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Enders/Granger JBES(1998)on threshold unit roots," Statistical Software Components RTZ00054, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Andros Gregoriou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2005. "Modeling The Non-Linear Behaviour of Inflation Deviations From The Target," Working Papers 2005_12, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgdps:dp601. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (The FMG Administration)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.