Forecasting and Tracking Real-Time Data Revisions in Inflation Persistence
The purpose of this paper is to examine the forecasting ability of sixty-two vintages of revised real-time PCE and core PCE using nonparametric methodologies. The combined fields of real-time data and nonparametric forecasting have not been previously explored with rigor, which this paper remedies. The contributions of this paper are on the three fronts of (i.) analysis of real-time data; (ii.) the additional benefits of using nonparametric econometrics to examine real-time data; and (iii.) nonparametric forecasting with real-time data. Regarding the analysis of real-time data revisions, this paper finds that the third quarter releases of real-time data have the largest number of data revisions. Secondly, nonparametric regressions are beneficial in utilizing the information provided by data revisions, which typically are just a few tenths in magnitude but are significant enough to statistically affect regression results. The deviations in window widths can be useful in identifying potential problematic time periods such as a large spike in oil prices. The third and final front of this paper regards nonparametric forecasting and the best performing real-time data release with the three local nonparametric forecasting methods outperforming the parametric benchmark forecasts. Lastly, this paper shows that the best performing quarterly-release of real-time data is dependent on the benchmark revision periods. For vintages 1996:Q1 to 2003:Q3, the second quarter real-time data releases produce the smaller RMSE 58% of the time and for vintages 2003:Q4 to 2011:Q2, the third quarter real-time data releases produce forecasts with smaller RMSE approximately 60% of the time.
|Date of creation:||08 Nov 2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Elliott, Graham, 2002. "Comments on 'Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 533-539, December.
- Pagan,Adrian & Ullah,Aman, 1999.
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521355643.
- Pagan,Adrian & Ullah,Aman, 1999. "Nonparametric Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521586115.
- Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
- Wolfgang HÄRDLE & H. LÜTKEPOHL & R. CHEN, 1996. "A Review of Nonparametric Time Series Analysis," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1996,48, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-263, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hardle, W. & Tsybakov, A., 1997. "Local polynomial estimators of the volatility function in nonparametric autoregression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 223-242, November.
- Wolfgang HÄRDLE & A. TSYBAKOV, 1995. "Local Polynomial Estimators of the Volatility Function in Nonparametric Autoregression," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1995,42, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Cogley, Timothy, 2002. "A Simple Adaptive Measure of Core Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 94-113, February.
- Timothy Cogley, 1998. "A simple adaptive measure of core inflation," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 98-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Cai, Zongwu, 2007. "Trending time-varying coefficient time series models with serially correlated errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 163-188, January.
- Tierney, Heather L.R., 2011. "Real-time data revisions and the PCE measure of inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1763-1773, July.
- Tierney, Heather L.R., 2010. "Real-Time Data Revisions and the PCE Measure of Inflation," MPRA Paper 22387, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2010.
- Tierney, Heather L.R., 2010. "Real-Time Data Revisions and the PCE Measure of Inflation," MPRA Paper 20625, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Gooijer, Jan G. De & Gannoun, Ali, 2000. "Nonparametric conditional predictive regions for time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 259-275, May.
- Harvey, David I & Leybourne, Stephen J & Newbold, Paul, 1998. "Tests for Forecast Encompassing," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 254-259, April.
- White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
- William D. Nordhaus, 2011. "The Economics of Tail Events with an Application to Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 5(2), pages 240-257, Summer.
- Heather L. R. Tierney, 2012. "Examining the ability of core inflation to capture the overall trend of total inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(4), pages 493-514, February.
- Tierney, Heather L.R., 2009. "Examining the Ability of Core Inflation to Capture the Overall Trend of Total Inflation," MPRA Paper 22409, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2010.
- Marron, J S, 1988. "Automatic Smoothing Parameter Selection: A Survey," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 13(3/4), pages 187-208.
- Chauvet, Marcelle & Tierney, Heather L. R., 2007. "Real Time Changes in Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 16199, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2009.
- Barkoulas, John T. & Baum, Christopher F. & Onochie, Joseph, 1997. "A nonparametric investigation of the 90-day t-bill rate," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 187-198.
- Qi Li & Jeffrey Scott Racine, 2006. "Nonparametric Econometrics: Theory and Practice," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8355.
- Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
- Fujiwara, Ippei & Koga, Maiko, 2004. "A Statistical Forecasting Method for Inflation Forecasting: Hitting Every Vector Autoregression and Forecasting under Model Uncertainty," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 22(1), pages 123-142, March.
- Robert W. Rich & Charles Steindel, 2005. "A review of core inflation and an evaluation of its measures," Staff Reports 236, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:51398. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.