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Danilo Leiva-Leon

Personal Details

First Name:Danilo
Middle Name:
Last Name:Leiva-Leon
Suffix:
RePEc Short-ID:ple733
https://sites.google.com/site/daniloleivaleon/

Affiliation

European Central Bank

Frankfurt am Main, Germany
http://www.ecb.europa.eu/
RePEc:edi:emieude (more details at EDIRC)

Research output

as
Jump to: Working papers Articles Chapters

Working papers

  1. Corinna Ghirelli & Danilo Leiva-León & Alberto Urtasun, 2022. "Housing prices in Spain: convergence or decoupling?," Working Papers 2205, Banco de España.
  2. Luciano Campos & Danilo Leiva-León & Steven Zapata, 2022. "Latin American Falls, Rebounds and Tail," Working Papers 145, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
  3. Luciano Campos & Danilo Leiva-León & Steven Zapata- Álvarez, 2022. "Latin American Falls, Rebounds and Tail Risks," Borradores de Economia 1201, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  4. Baumann, Ursel & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Westermann, Thomas & Riggi, Marianna & Bobeica, Elena & Meyler, Aidan & Böninghausen, Benjamin & Fritzer, Friedrich & Trezzi, Riccardo & Jonckheere, Jana & , 2021. "Inflation expectations and their role in Eurosystem forecasting," Occasional Paper Series 264, European Central Bank.
  5. Bańbura, Marta & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Menz, Jan-Oliver, 2021. "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation forecasts?," Working Paper Series 2604, European Central Bank.
  6. Christiane Baumeister & Danilo Leiva-León & Eric R. Sims, 2021. "Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions," CESifo Working Paper Series 9165, CESifo.
  7. Eddie Gerba & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2020. "Macro-financial interactions in a changing world," Working Papers 2018, Banco de España.
  8. Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Rots, Eyno & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2020. "Real-time weakness of the global economy: a first assessment of the coronavirus crisis," Working Paper Series 2381, European Central Bank.
  9. Danilo Leiva-Leon & Luis Uzeda, 2020. "Endogenous Time Variation in Vector Autoregressions," Staff Working Papers 20-16, Bank of Canada.
  10. Christian Friedrich & Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2020. "Monetary Policy Independence and the Strength of the Global Financial Cycle," Staff Working Papers 20-25, Bank of Canada.
  11. Danilo Leiva-Leon & Eva Ortega & Jaime Martínez-Martín, 2019. "Exchange rate shocks and inflation comovement in the euro area," Working Papers 1934, Banco de España.
  12. María Gil & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Javier J. Pérez & Alberto Urtasun, 2019. "An application of dynamic factor models to nowcast regional economic activity in Spain," Occasional Papers 1904, Banco de España.
  13. Danilo Leiva-Leon & Lorenzo Ductor, 2019. "Fluctuations in Global Macro Volatility," Working Papers 1925, Banco de España.
  14. Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2017. "Markov-Switching Three-Pass Regression Filter," Staff Working Papers 17-13, Bank of Canada.
  15. Funke, Michael & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Tsang, Andrew, 2017. "Mapping China’s time-varying house price landscape," BOFIT Discussion Papers 21/2017, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  16. Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "Measuring business cycles intra-synchronization in us: a regime-switching interdependence framework," Working Papers 1726, Banco de España.
  17. Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "Monitoring the Spanish Economy through the Lenses of Structural Bayesian VARs," Occasional Papers 1706, Banco de España.
  18. María Dolores Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "The evolution of regional economic interlinkages in Europe," Working Papers 1705, Banco de España.
  19. Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "Monetary policy, stock market and sectoral comovement," Working Papers 1731, Banco de España.
  20. Barnett, William & Chauvet, Marcelle & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Su, Liting, 2016. "Nowcasting Nominal GDP with the Credit-Card Augmented Divisia Monetary," Studies in Applied Economics 59, The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.
  21. William Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Liting Su, 2016. "Nowcasting Nominal GDP with the Credit-Card Augmented Divisia Monetary Aggregates," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201605, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2016.
  22. William Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Liting Su, 2016. "The Credit-Card-Services Augmented Divisia Monetary Aggregates," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201604, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2016.
  23. Lorenzo Ductor & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2015. "Dynamics of Global Business Cycles Interdependence," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 763, Central Bank of Chile.
  24. Máximo Camacho & Danilo Leiva-León & Gabriel Pérez-Quiros, 2015. "Country Shocks, Monetary Policy Expectations and ECB Decisions. A Dynamic Non-Linear Approach," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 764, Central Bank of Chile.
  25. Guérin, Pierre & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2014. "Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data," MPRA Paper 59361, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  26. William A. Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2014. "Real-Time Nowcasting of Nominal GDP Under Structural Breaks," Staff Working Papers 14-39, Bank of Canada.
  27. Maximo Camacho & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2014. "The Propagation of Industrial Business Cycles," Staff Working Papers 14-48, Bank of Canada.
  28. Barnett, William A. & Chauvet, Marcelle & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2014. "Real-Time Nowcasting Nominal GDP Under Structural Break," MPRA Paper 53699, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  29. Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2013. "Real vs. Nominal Cycles: A Multistate Markov-Switching Bi-Factor Approach," MPRA Paper 54456, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  30. Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2013. "A New Approach to Infer Changes in the Synchronization of Business Cycle Phases," MPRA Paper 54452, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Articles

  1. Danilo Leiva-Leon & Jaime Martinez-Martin & Eva Ortega, 2022. "Exchange Rate Shocks and Inflation Co-movement in the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(1), pages 239-275, March.
  2. Ductor, Lorenzo & Leiva-León, Danilo, 2022. "Fluctuations in global output volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
  3. Danilo Leiva-León & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Horacio Sapriza & Egon Zakrajšek, 2022. "Introducing the Credit Market Sentiment Index," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 22(33), August.
  4. Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2020. "Markov-Switching Three-Pass Regression Filter," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 285-302, April.
  5. Gadea-Rivas, María Dolores & Gómez-Loscos, Ana & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2019. "Increasing linkages among European regions. The role of sectoral composition," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 222-243.
  6. Concha Artola & María Gil & Danilo Leiva & Javier J. Pérez & Alberto Urtasun, 2019. "Predicción en tiempo real del PIB regional: aspectos estadísticos y un modelo de previsión," Boletín Económico, Banco de España, issue JUN, pages 1-11.
  7. Funke, Michael & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Tsang, Andrew, 2019. "Mapping China’s time-varying house price landscape," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  8. Concha Artola & María Gil & Danilo Leiva & Javier J. Pérez & Alberto Urtasun, 2019. "Real-time regional GDP forecasting: statistical aspects and a forecasting model," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue JUN, pages 1-11.
  9. Camacho, Maximo & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2019. "The Propagation Of Industrial Business Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 144-177, January.
  10. Danilo Leiva & Jaime Martínez-Martín & Eva Ortega, 2018. "La evolución reciente del tipo de cambio del euro y su impacto sobre la inflación en la economía española," Boletín Económico, Banco de España, issue DIC, pages 1-9.
  11. Danilo Leiva & Jaime Martínez-Martín & Eva Ortega, 2018. "Recent movements in the euro exchange rate and the impact on inflation in the Spanish economy," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue DEC, pages 1-8.
  12. Guérin, Pierre & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2017. "Model averaging in Markov-switching models: Predicting national recessions with regional data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 45-49.
  13. Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "Measuring Business Cycles Intra-Synchronization in US: A Regime-switching Interdependence Framework," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(4), pages 513-545, August.
  14. Barnett, William A. & Chauvet, Marcelle & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2016. "Real-time nowcasting of nominal GDP with structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(2), pages 312-324.
  15. Ductor, Lorenzo & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2016. "Dynamics of global business cycle interdependence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 110-127.
  16. Leiva-Leon Danilo, 2014. "Real vs. nominal cycles: a multistate Markov-switching bi-factor approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(5), pages 1-24, December.

    RePEc:chb:bcchrl:v:18:y:2015:i:3:p:130-132 is not listed on IDEAS

Chapters

  1. Elías Albagli & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Diego Saravia, 2016. "U.S. Monetary Spillovers to Latin America: The Role of Long-term Interest Rates," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Elías Albagli & Diego Saravia & Michael Woodford (ed.),Monetary Policy through Asset Markets: Lessons from Unconventional Measures and Implications for an Integrated World, edition 1, volume 24, chapter 9, pages 285-307, Central Bank of Chile.
  2. Maximo Camacho & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2016. "Country Shocks, Monetary Policy Expectations and ECB Decisions. A Dynamic Non-linear Approach," Advances in Econometrics, in: Eric Hillebrand & Siem Jan Koopman (ed.), Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 283-316, Emerald Publishing Ltd.

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Working papers

  1. Baumann, Ursel & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Westermann, Thomas & Riggi, Marianna & Bobeica, Elena & Meyler, Aidan & Böninghausen, Benjamin & Fritzer, Friedrich & Trezzi, Riccardo & Jonckheere, Jana & , 2021. "Inflation expectations and their role in Eurosystem forecasting," Occasional Paper Series 264, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Koester, Gerrit & Lis, Eliza & Nickel, Christiane & Osbat, Chiara & Smets, Frank, 2021. "Understanding low inflation in the euro area from 2013 to 2019: cyclical and structural drivers," Occasional Paper Series 280, European Central Bank.
    2. Ehrmann, Michael & Holton, Sarah & Kedan, Danielle & Phelan, Gillian, 2021. "Monetary policy communication: perspectives from former policy makers at the ECB," Working Paper Series 2627, European Central Bank.

  2. Bańbura, Marta & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Menz, Jan-Oliver, 2021. "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation forecasts?," Working Paper Series 2604, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Baumann, Ursel & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Westermann, Thomas & Riggi, Marianna & Bobeica, Elena & Meyler, Aidan & Böninghausen, Benjamin & Fritzer, Friedrich & Trezzi, Riccardo & Jonckheere, Jana & , 2021. "Inflation expectations and their role in Eurosystem forecasting," Occasional Paper Series 264, European Central Bank.
    2. Florian Huber & Luca Onorante & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2022. "Forecasting euro area inflation using a huge panel of survey expectations," Papers 2207.12225, arXiv.org.
    3. Giulio Galdi & Roberto Casarin & Davide Ferrari & Carlo Fezzi & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2022. "Nowcasting industrial production using linear and non-linear models of electricity demand," DEM Working Papers 2022/2, Department of Economics and Management.
    4. Luigi Bonatti, & Andrea Fracasso & Roberto Tamborini, 2021. "What to expect from inflation expectations: theory, empirics and policy issues," DEM Working Papers 2022/1, Department of Economics and Management.

  3. Christiane Baumeister & Danilo Leiva-León & Eric R. Sims, 2021. "Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions," CESifo Working Paper Series 9165, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Rueben Ellul & Germano Ruisi, 2022. "Nowcasting the Maltese economy with a dynamic factor model," CBM Working Papers WP/02/2022, Central Bank of Malta.

  4. Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Rots, Eyno & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2020. "Real-time weakness of the global economy: a first assessment of the coronavirus crisis," Working Paper Series 2381, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta & Elie Bouri, 2022. "Testing the Forecasting Power of Global Economic Conditions for the Volatility of International REITs using a GARCH-MIDAS Approach," Working Papers 202211, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2021. "Macroeconomic effects of Covid-19: a mid-term review," BIS Working Papers 959, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Pérez Quirós, Gabriel, 2020. "Global Weakness Index – reading the economy’s vital signs during the COVID-19 crisis," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 72.
    4. Donato Masciandaro, 2020. "Covid-19 Helicopter Money, Monetary Policy And Central Bank Independence: Economics And Politics," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 20137, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    5. Massimiliano Ferraresi, 2022. "The regional (re)allocation of migrants during the Great Lockdown in Italy," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 39(2), pages 403-426, July.
    6. Sułkowski Łukasz, 2020. "Covid-19 Pandemic; Recession, Virtual Revolution Leading to De-globalization?," Journal of Intercultural Management, Sciendo, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, March.
    7. Funke, Michael & Tsang, Andrew, 2020. "The People's Bank of China's response to the coronavirus pandemic - A quantitative assessment," BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2020, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    8. Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel & Driha, Oana M. & Bekun, Festus & Sinha, Avik & Fatai Adedoyin, Festus, 2020. "Consequences of COVID-19 on the social isolation of the Chinese economy: accounting for the role of reduction in carbon emissions," MPRA Paper 102894, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2020.
    9. Mary Oluwatoyin Agboola & Festus Victor Bekun & Daniel Balsalobre-Lorente, 2021. "Implications of Social Isolation in Combating COVID-19 Outbreak in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Its Consequences on the Carbon Emissions Reduction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-16, August.
    10. Donato Masciandaro, 2020. "Ecb Helicopter Money: Economic And Political Economy Arithmetics," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 20138, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    11. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2021. "Gauging the Effect of Influential Observations on Measures of Relative Forecast Accuracy in a Post-COVID-19 Era: Application to Nowcasting Euro Area GDP Growth," Working Papers 2021/01, Latvijas Banka.
    12. Piotr Skórka & Beata Grzywacz & Dawid Moroń & Magdalena Lenda, 2020. "The macroecology of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Anthropocene," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(7), pages 1-17, July.

  5. Danilo Leiva-Leon & Luis Uzeda, 2020. "Endogenous Time Variation in Vector Autoregressions," Staff Working Papers 20-16, Bank of Canada.

    Cited by:

    1. Jamie L. Cross & Chenghan Hou & Gary Koop, 2021. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with Large Stochastic Volatility in Mean VARs," Working Papers No 04/2021, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.

  6. Christian Friedrich & Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2020. "Monetary Policy Independence and the Strength of the Global Financial Cycle," Staff Working Papers 20-25, Bank of Canada.

    Cited by:

    1. Kristin J. Forbes, 2020. "The International Aspects of Macroprudential Policy," NBER Working Papers 27698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  7. Danilo Leiva-Leon & Eva Ortega & Jaime Martínez-Martín, 2019. "Exchange rate shocks and inflation comovement in the euro area," Working Papers 1934, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Georgios Georgiadis & Ben Schumann, 2019. "Dominant-currency pricing and the global output spillovers from US dollar appreciation," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2019_021, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    2. Baumann, Ursel & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Westermann, Thomas & Riggi, Marianna & Bobeica, Elena & Meyler, Aidan & Böninghausen, Benjamin & Fritzer, Friedrich & Trezzi, Riccardo & Jonckheere, Jana & , 2021. "Inflation expectations and their role in Eurosystem forecasting," Occasional Paper Series 264, European Central Bank.
    3. Marco Flaccadoro, 2022. "Exchange rate pass-through in small, open, commodity-exporting economies: lessons from Canada," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1368, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. An, Lian & Wynne, Mark A. & Zhang, Ren, 2021. "Shock-dependent exchange rate pass-through: Evidence based on a narrative sign approach for Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    5. Georgiadis, Georgios & Gräb, Johannes & Khalil, Makram, 2019. "Global value chain participation and exchange rate pass-through," Working Paper Series 2327, European Central Bank.
    6. Cristina ANGHELESCU, 2022. "Shock-dependent Exchange Rate Pass-through into Different Measures of Price Indices in the Case of Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 88-104, October.

  8. María Gil & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Javier J. Pérez & Alberto Urtasun, 2019. "An application of dynamic factor models to nowcast regional economic activity in Spain," Occasional Papers 1904, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Concha Artola & María Gil & Javier J. Pérez & Alberto Urtasun & Alejandro Fiorito & Diego Vila, 2018. "Monitoring the Spanish economy from a regional perspective: main elements of analysis," Occasional Papers 1809, Banco de España.
    2. Robert Lehmann & Sascha Möhrle, 2022. "Forecasting Regional Industrial Production with High-Frequency Electricity Consumption Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 9917, CESifo.
    3. Robert Lehmann & Ida Wikman, 2022. "Quarterly GDP Estimates for the German States," ifo Working Paper Series 370, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.

  9. Danilo Leiva-Leon & Lorenzo Ductor, 2019. "Fluctuations in Global Macro Volatility," Working Papers 1925, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. N. V. Suvorov & S. V. Treshchina & Yu. V. Beletskii, 2020. "Design of Methods for Long-Term Forecasting of Development Trends in the Russian Economy (Methodology and Model Toolkit)," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 31(6), pages 636-646, November.

  10. Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2017. "Markov-Switching Three-Pass Regression Filter," Staff Working Papers 17-13, Bank of Canada.

    Cited by:

    1. Bouri, Elie & Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan, 2022. "Forecasting returns of major cryptocurrencies: Evidence from regime-switching factor models," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).

  11. Funke, Michael & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Tsang, Andrew, 2017. "Mapping China’s time-varying house price landscape," BOFIT Discussion Papers 21/2017, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.

    Cited by:

    1. Maynou, Laia & Monfort, Mercedes & Morley, Bruce & Ordóñez, Javier, 2021. "Club convergence in European housing prices: The role of macroeconomic and housing market fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    2. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Joe Cho Yiu Ng, 2018. "Macro Aspects of Housing," Globalization Institute Working Papers 340, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    3. Jie Chen & Haiyong Zhang & Qian Zhou, 2021. "Rule by Law, Law-Based Governance, and Housing Prices: The Case of China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-22, June.
    4. Peng Nie & Andrew E. Clark & Conchita d'Ambrosio & Lanlin Ding, 2022. "Income-related health inequality in urban China (1991–2015): The role of homeownership and housing conditions," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-03672658, HAL.
    5. Ozdemir Dicle, 2020. "Time-Varying Housing Market Fluctuations: Evidence from the U.S. Housing Market," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 28(2), pages 89-99, June.
    6. Michael Funke & Petar Mihaylovski & Adrian Wende, 2018. "Out of Sync Subnational Housing Markets and Macroprudential Policies," CESifo Working Paper Series 6887, CESifo.

  12. Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "Measuring business cycles intra-synchronization in us: a regime-switching interdependence framework," Working Papers 1726, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Inekwe, John Nkwoma, 2020. "Liquidity connectedness and output synchronisation," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    2. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Daniel Soques, 2022. "Contagious switching," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 415-432, March.
    3. Maximo Camacho & Fernando Soto, 2018. "Consumer confidence’s boom and bust in Latin America," Working Papers 18/02, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    4. Camacho, Maximo & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2019. "The Propagation Of Industrial Business Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 144-177, January.
    5. Mattia Guerini & Duc Thi Luu & Mauro Napoletano, 2019. "Synchronization Patterns in the European Union," GREDEG Working Papers 2019-30, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    6. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2017. "Synchronicity of real and financial cycles and structural characteristics in EU countries," Bank of Lithuania Occasional Paper Series 15, Bank of Lithuania.
    7. Funke, Michael & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Tsang, Andrew, 2017. "Mapping China’s time-varying house price landscape," BOFIT Discussion Papers 21/2017, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    8. Liu, Dayu & Wang, Qiaoru & Song, Yang, 2020. "China’s business cycles at the provincial level: National synchronization, interregional coordination and provincial idiosyncrasy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 629-650.
    9. Shinya Fukui, 2020. "Business Cycle Spatial Synchronization: Measuring a Synchronization Parameter," Discussion Papers 2009, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    10. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2022. "Do economic policy uncertainty indices matter in joint volatility cycles between U.S. and Japanese stock markets?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    11. Rachidi Kotchoni & Dalibor Stevanovic & Stéphane Surprenant, 2019. "Identification des points de retournement du cycle économique au Canada," CIRANO Project Reports 2019rp-05, CIRANO.
    12. Maximo Camacho & Angela Caro & German Lopez-Buenache, 2020. "The two-speed Europe in business cycle synchronization," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 1069-1084, September.
    13. Yong Song & Tomasz Wo'zniak, 2020. "Markov Switching," Papers 2002.03598, arXiv.org.
    14. Gadea-Rivas, María Dolores & Gómez-Loscos, Ana & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2019. "Increasing linkages among European regions. The role of sectoral composition," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 222-243.
    15. María Dolores Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "The evolution of regional economic interlinkages in Europe," Working Papers 1705, Banco de España.
    16. Amy Y. Guisinger & Michael T. Owyang & Daniel Soques, 2020. "Industrial Connectedness and Business Cycle Comovements," Working Papers 2020-052, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 04 Aug 2021.

  13. Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "Monitoring the Spanish Economy through the Lenses of Structural Bayesian VARs," Occasional Papers 1706, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Danilo Leiva-Leon & Jaime Martinez-Martin & Eva Ortega, 2022. "Exchange Rate Shocks and Inflation Co-movement in the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(1), pages 239-275, March.
    2. Ian Borg & Germano Ruisi, 2018. "Forecasting using Bayesian VARs: A Benchmark for STREAM," CBM Working Papers WP/04/2018, Central Bank of Malta.
    3. Erik Andres-Escayola & Juan Carlos Berganza & Rodolfo Campos & Luis Molina, 2021. "A BVAR toolkit to assess macrofinancial risks in Brazil and Mexico," Occasional Papers 2114, Banco de España.

  14. María Dolores Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "The evolution of regional economic interlinkages in Europe," Working Papers 1705, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Dolores Gadea-Rivas, M. & Gómez-Loscos, Ana & Bandrés, Eduardo, 2018. "Clustering regional business cycles," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 171-176.
    2. Eduardo Bandrés & María Dolores Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos, 2017. "Regional business cycles across europe," Occasional Papers 1702, Banco de España.
    3. Gomez-Loscos, Ana & Gadea, M. Dolores & Bandres, Eduardo, 2018. "Business cycle patterns in European regions," MPRA Paper 83964, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Camacho, Máximo & Pacce, Matias & Ulloa, Camilo, 2018. "Regional Business Cycle Phases in Spain/Ciclos económicos regionales en España," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 36, pages 857-896, Septiembr.
    5. Maximo Camacho & Matias Pacce & Camilo Ulloa, 2017. "Business cycle phases in Spain," Working Papers 17/20, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.

  15. Barnett, William & Chauvet, Marcelle & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Su, Liting, 2016. "Nowcasting Nominal GDP with the Credit-Card Augmented Divisia Monetary," Studies in Applied Economics 59, The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.

    Cited by:

    1. Barnett, William & Park, Sohee, 2021. "Forecasting Inflation and Output Growth with Credit-Card-Augmented Divisia Monetary Aggregates," MPRA Paper 110298, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Babii, Andrii & Ghysels, Eric & Striaukas, Jonas, 2021. "Machine Learning Time Series Regressions With an Application to Nowcasting," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2021004, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    3. Barnett, William A. & Su, Liting, 2017. "Data sources for the credit-card augmented Divisia monetary aggregates," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 899-910.
    4. Liu Jinan & Serletis Apostolos, 2020. "Money growth variability and output: evidence with credit card-augmented Divisia monetary aggregates," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(5), pages 1-11, December.
    5. William Barnett & Jinan Liu, 2017. "User Cost of Credit Card Services under Risk with Intertemporal Nonseparability," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201705, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2017.
    6. James Chapman & Ajit Desai, 2021. "Using Payments Data to Nowcast Macroeconomic Variables During the Onset of COVID-19," Staff Working Papers 21-2, Bank of Canada.
    7. Ali B. Barlas & Seda Guler Mert & Berk Orkun Isa & Alvaro Ortiz & Tomasa Rodrigo & Baris Soybilgen & Ege Yazgan, 2021. "Big Data Information and Nowcasting: Consumption and Investment from Bank Transactions in Turkey," Papers 2107.03299, arXiv.org.
    8. Barnett, William & Su, Liting, 2016. "Risk adjustment of the credit-card augmented Divisia monetary aggregates," MPRA Paper 73248, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Serletis, Apostolos & Xu, Libo, 2020. "Functional monetary aggregates, monetary policy, and business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    10. Knut Are Aastveit & Tuva Marie Fastbø & Eleonora Granziera & Kenneth Sæterhagen Paulsen & Kjersti Næss Torstensen, 2020. "Nowcasting Norwegian household consumption with debit card transaction data," Working Paper 2020/17, Norges Bank.
    11. James Chapman & Ajit Desai, 2022. "Macroeconomic Predictions Using Payments Data and Machine Learning," Staff Working Papers 22-10, Bank of Canada.
    12. William Barnett & Hyun Park & Sohee Park, 2021. "The Barnett Critique," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202115, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2021.
    13. Lourenço, Nuno & Rua, António, 2021. "The Daily Economic Indicator: tracking economic activity daily during the lockdown," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    14. António Rua & Nuno Lourenço, 2020. "The DEI: tracking economic activity daily during the lockdown," Working Papers w202013, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

  16. William Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Liting Su, 2016. "Nowcasting Nominal GDP with the Credit-Card Augmented Divisia Monetary Aggregates," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201605, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2016.

    Cited by:

    1. Barnett, William & Park, Sohee, 2021. "Forecasting Inflation and Output Growth with Credit-Card-Augmented Divisia Monetary Aggregates," MPRA Paper 110298, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Babii, Andrii & Ghysels, Eric & Striaukas, Jonas, 2021. "Machine Learning Time Series Regressions With an Application to Nowcasting," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2021004, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    3. Barnett, William A. & Su, Liting, 2017. "Data sources for the credit-card augmented Divisia monetary aggregates," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 899-910.
    4. Liu Jinan & Serletis Apostolos, 2020. "Money growth variability and output: evidence with credit card-augmented Divisia monetary aggregates," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(5), pages 1-11, December.
    5. William Barnett & Jinan Liu, 2017. "User Cost of Credit Card Services under Risk with Intertemporal Nonseparability," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201705, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2017.
    6. Raquel Nadal Cesar Gonçalves, 2022. "Nowcasting Brazilian GDP with Electronic Payments Data," Working Papers Series 564, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    7. Barnett, William & Su, Liting, 2016. "Risk adjustment of the credit-card augmented Divisia monetary aggregates," MPRA Paper 73248, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. William Barnett & Liting Su, 2017. "Financial Firm Production Of Inside Monetary And Credit Card Services: An Aggregation Theoretic Approach1," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201707, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2017.
    9. Serletis, Apostolos & Xu, Libo, 2020. "Functional monetary aggregates, monetary policy, and business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    10. Knut Are Aastveit & Tuva Marie Fastbø & Eleonora Granziera & Kenneth Sæterhagen Paulsen & Kjersti Næss Torstensen, 2020. "Nowcasting Norwegian household consumption with debit card transaction data," Working Paper 2020/17, Norges Bank.
    11. Barnett, William & Chauvet, Marcelle & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Su, Liting, 2016. "The credit-card-services augmented Divisia monetary aggregates," MPRA Paper 73245, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Barnett, William & Su, Liting, 2017. "Financial Firm Production Of Inside Monetary And Credit Card Services: An Aggregation Theoretic Approach," Studies in Applied Economics 91, The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.
    13. William Barnett & Hyun Park & Sohee Park, 2021. "The Barnett Critique," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202115, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2021.
    14. Lourenço, Nuno & Rua, António, 2021. "The Daily Economic Indicator: tracking economic activity daily during the lockdown," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).

  17. William Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Liting Su, 2016. "The Credit-Card-Services Augmented Divisia Monetary Aggregates," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201604, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2016.

    Cited by:

    1. Fixler, Dennis & Zieschang, Kim, 2019. "Producing liquidity," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 115-135.
    2. Barnett, William & Park, Sohee, 2021. "Forecasting Inflation and Output Growth with Credit-Card-Augmented Divisia Monetary Aggregates," MPRA Paper 110298, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Barnett, William A. & Nguyen, Van H., 2021. "Constructing Divisia monetary aggregates for Singapore," MPRA Paper 108422, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Babii, Andrii & Ghysels, Eric & Striaukas, Jonas, 2021. "Machine Learning Time Series Regressions With an Application to Nowcasting," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2021004, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    5. William Barnett & Jinan Liu, 2017. "User Cost of Credit Card Services under Risk with Intertemporal Nonseparability," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201705, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2017.
    6. William A. Barnett & Liting Su, 2016. "Joint aggregation over money and credit card services under risk," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(4), pages 2301-2310.
    7. William Barnett & Liting Su, 2017. "Financial Firm Production Of Inside Monetary And Credit Card Services: An Aggregation Theoretic Approach1," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201707, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2017.
    8. Barnett, William & Su, Liting, 2017. "Financial Firm Production Of Inside Monetary And Credit Card Services: An Aggregation Theoretic Approach," Studies in Applied Economics 91, The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.
    9. William Barnett & Hyun Park & Sohee Park, 2021. "The Barnett Critique," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202115, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2021.

  18. Lorenzo Ductor & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2015. "Dynamics of Global Business Cycles Interdependence," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 763, Central Bank of Chile.

    Cited by:

    1. Keisuke Kondo, 2015. "Spatial Dependence in Regional Business Cycles: Evidence from Mexican States," Discussion Paper Series DP2015-27, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised Jun 2021.
    2. Ngozi E. Egbuna & Maimuna John-Sowe & Santigie M. Kargbo (PhD) & Sani Bawa (PhD) & Ibrahima Diallo & Isatou Mendy, 2020. "Business Cycle Synchronisation In The Ecowas Region," Working Papers 18, West African Monetary Institute.
    3. Deskar-Škrbić, Milan & Kotarac, Karlo & Kunovac, Davor, 2020. "The third round of euro area enlargement: Are the candidates ready?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    4. Baumeister, Christiane & Guérin, Pierre, 2021. "A comparison of monthly global indicators for forecasting growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1276-1295.
    5. António M Lopes & J A Tenreiro Machado & John S Huffstot & Maria Eugénia Mata, 2018. "Dynamical analysis of the global business-cycle synchronization," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(2), pages 1-25, February.
    6. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Daniel Soques, 2019. "Business Cycles Across Space and Time," Working Papers 2019-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 05 May 2021.
    7. Berger, Tino & Wortmann, Marcus, 2018. "Global vs. group-specific business cycles: The importance of defining the groups," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 334, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    8. Ro’i Zultan & Oded Ravid & Miki Malul, 2016. "The Effect Of Economic Cycles On Job Satisfaction In A Two-Sector Economy," Working Papers 1605, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    9. John D. Burger & Francis E. Warnock & Veronica Cacdac Warnock, 2018. "Benchmarking Portfolio Flows," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(3), pages 527-563, September.
    10. Danilo Leiva-Leon & Jaime Martinez-Martin & Eva Ortega, 2022. "Exchange Rate Shocks and Inflation Co-movement in the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(1), pages 239-275, March.
    11. Amalia Repele & Sébastien Waelti, 2021. "Mapping the Global Business Cycle Network," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 739-760, September.
    12. Servén, Luis & Abate, Girum Dagnachew, 2020. "Adding space to the international business cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    13. Roman Matkovskyy, 2020. "A measurement of affluence and poverty interdependence across countries: Evidence from the application of tail copula," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(4), pages 404-416, October.
    14. Friberg, Richard & Sanctuary, Mark, 2019. "Matched trade at the firm level and the micro origins of international business-cycle comovement," CEPR Discussion Papers 14122, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Mark F. J. Steel, 2020. "Model Averaging and Its Use in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 644-719, September.
    16. Ductor, Lorenzo & Leiva-León, Danilo, 2022. "Fluctuations in global output volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    17. Danilo Leiva-Leon & Lorenzo Ductor, 2019. "Fluctuations in Global Macro Volatility," Working Papers 1925, Banco de España.
    18. Víctor Alberto Pena & Alina Gómez-Mejía, 2019. "Effect of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic and optimism bias in stock market forecasts," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 11(2), pages 389-409, November.
    19. Oleksandr Faryna & Heli Simola, 2018. "The Transmission of International Shocks to CIS Economies: A Global VAR Approach," Working Papers 04/2018, National Bank of Ukraine.
    20. Szafranek, Karol, 2021. "Evidence on time-varying inflation synchronization," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 1-13.
    21. Richard Friberg & Mark Sanctuary, 2022. "Matched trade at the firm level and the micro origins of international business‐cycle comovement," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 2997-3009, July.
    22. Shinya Fukui, 2020. "Business Cycle Spatial Synchronization: Measuring a Synchronization Parameter," Discussion Papers 2009, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    23. Berger, Tino & Richter, Julia, 2017. "What has caused global business cycle decoupling: Smaller shocks or reduced sensitivity?," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 300, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    24. Ma, Feng & Wahab, M.I.M. & Zhang, Yaojie, 2019. "Forecasting the U.S. stock volatility: An aligned jump index from G7 stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 132-146.
    25. Simola, Heli, 2019. "Effects of external shocks on Russian economy," BOFIT Policy Briefs 4/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    26. Shen, Jiancheng & Selover, David D. & Li, Chao & Yousefi, Hamed, 2022. "An ocean apart? The effects of US business cycles on Chinese business cycles," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 677-698.
    27. Faryna, Oleksandr & Simola, Heli, 2021. "The transmission of international shocks to CIS economies: A global VAR approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(2).
    28. Szafranek, Karol, 2021. "Disentangling the sources of inflation synchronization. Evidence from a large panel dataset," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 229-245.
    29. Gadea-Rivas, María Dolores & Gómez-Loscos, Ana & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2019. "Increasing linkages among European regions. The role of sectoral composition," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 222-243.
    30. Central Bank of Brazil, 2018. "Globalisation and deglobalisation," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation and deglobalisation, volume 100, pages 71-82, Bank for International Settlements.
    31. María Dolores Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "The evolution of regional economic interlinkages in Europe," Working Papers 1705, Banco de España.

  19. Máximo Camacho & Danilo Leiva-León & Gabriel Pérez-Quiros, 2015. "Country Shocks, Monetary Policy Expectations and ECB Decisions. A Dynamic Non-Linear Approach," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 764, Central Bank of Chile.

    Cited by:

    1. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
    2. Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "Monitoring the Spanish Economy through the Lenses of Structural Bayesian VARs," Occasional Papers 1706, Banco de España.

  20. Guérin, Pierre & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2014. "Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data," MPRA Paper 59361, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Cited by:

    1. Irfan Nurfalah & Aam Slamet Rusydiana & Nisful Laila & Eko Fajar Cahyono, 2018. "Early Warning to Banking Crises in the Dual Financial System in Indonesia: The Markov Switching Approach التحذير المبكر من الأزمات المصرفية في النظام المالي المزدوج في إندونيسيا: مقاربة ماركوف للتحويل," Journal of King Abdulaziz University: Islamic Economics, King Abdulaziz University, Islamic Economics Institute., vol. 31(2), pages 133-156, July.
    2. Gadea-Rivas, María Dolores & Gómez-Loscos, Ana & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2019. "Increasing linkages among European regions. The role of sectoral composition," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 222-243.
    3. María Dolores Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "The evolution of regional economic interlinkages in Europe," Working Papers 1705, Banco de España.
    4. Baumann, Ursel & Gomez-Salvador, Ramon & Seitz, Franz, 2019. "Detecting turning points in global economic activity," Working Paper Series 2310, European Central Bank.

  21. William A. Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2014. "Real-Time Nowcasting of Nominal GDP Under Structural Breaks," Staff Working Papers 14-39, Bank of Canada.

    Cited by:

    1. Christian Glocker & Philipp Wegmüller, 2017. "Business Cycle Dating and Forecasting with Real-time Swiss GDP Data," WIFO Working Papers 542, WIFO.
    2. Barnett, William & Suvra Bhadury, Soumya & Ghosh, Taniya, 2015. "An SVAR Approach to Evaluation of Monetary Policy in India: Solution to the Exchange Rate Puzzles in an Open Economy," Studies in Applied Economics 41, The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.
    3. Barnett, William A. & Tang, Biyan, 2015. "Chinese Divisia monetary index and GDP nowcasting," MPRA Paper 67691, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Gálvez-Soriano Oscar de Jesús, 2018. "Nowcasting Mexican GDP using Factor Models and Bridge Equations," Working Papers 2018-06, Banco de México.

  22. Maximo Camacho & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2014. "The Propagation of Industrial Business Cycles," Staff Working Papers 14-48, Bank of Canada.

    Cited by:

    1. Maximo Camacho & Fernando Soto, 2018. "Consumer confidence’s boom and bust in Latin America," Working Papers 18/02, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    2. Lirios Alos-Simo & Antonio J. Verdu-Jover & Jose M. Gomez-Gras, 2020. "Knowledge Transfer in Sustainable Contexts: A Comparative Analysis of Periods of Financial Recession and Expansion," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-24, June.
    3. Funke, Michael & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Tsang, Andrew, 2017. "Mapping China’s time-varying house price landscape," BOFIT Discussion Papers 21/2017, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    4. Komla M. Agudze & Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2021. "Markov Switching Panel with Endogenous Synchronization Effects," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS82, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    5. Paflioti, Persa & Vitsounis, Thomas K. & Teye, Collins & Bell, Michael G.H. & Tsamourgelis, Ioannis, 2017. "Box dynamics: A sectoral approach to analyse containerized port throughput interdependencies," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 396-413.
    6. Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "Monetary policy, stock market and sectoral comovement," Working Papers 1731, Banco de España.
    7. Ductor, Lorenzo & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2016. "Dynamics of global business cycle interdependence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 110-127.
    8. Gadea-Rivas, María Dolores & Gómez-Loscos, Ana & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2019. "Increasing linkages among European regions. The role of sectoral composition," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 222-243.
    9. María Dolores Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "The evolution of regional economic interlinkages in Europe," Working Papers 1705, Banco de España.
    10. Amy Y. Guisinger & Michael T. Owyang & Daniel Soques, 2020. "Industrial Connectedness and Business Cycle Comovements," Working Papers 2020-052, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 04 Aug 2021.

  23. Barnett, William A. & Chauvet, Marcelle & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2014. "Real-Time Nowcasting Nominal GDP Under Structural Break," MPRA Paper 53699, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Cited by:

    1. Christian Glocker & Philipp Wegmüller, 2017. "Business Cycle Dating and Forecasting with Real-time Swiss GDP Data," WIFO Working Papers 542, WIFO.
    2. Ductor, Lorenzo & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2016. "Dynamics of global business cycle interdependence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 110-127.
    3. Gálvez-Soriano Oscar de Jesús, 2018. "Nowcasting Mexican GDP using Factor Models and Bridge Equations," Working Papers 2018-06, Banco de México.

  24. Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2013. "Real vs. Nominal Cycles: A Multistate Markov-Switching Bi-Factor Approach," MPRA Paper 54456, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Cited by:

    1. Mattia Guerini & Duc Thi Luu & Mauro Napoletano, 2019. "Synchronization Patterns in the European Union," GREDEG Working Papers 2019-30, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    2. Maximo Camacho & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2016. "Country Shocks, Monetary Policy Expectations and ECB Decisions. A Dynamic Non-linear Approach," Advances in Econometrics, in: Eric Hillebrand & Siem Jan Koopman (ed.), Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 283-316, Emerald Publishing Ltd.
    3. Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "Measuring business cycles intra-synchronization in us: a regime-switching interdependence framework," Working Papers 1726, Banco de España.
    4. Barnett, William A. & Chauvet, Marcelle & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2016. "Real-time nowcasting of nominal GDP with structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(2), pages 312-324.
    5. Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2014. "A New Approach to Infer Changes in the Synchronization of Business Cycle Phases," Staff Working Papers 14-38, Bank of Canada.
    6. William Barnett & Marcelle Chauvetz & Danilo Leiva-Leonx, 2014. "Real-Time Nowcasting Nominal GDP Under Structural Break," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201313, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2014.
    7. William A. Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2014. "Real-Time Nowcasting of Nominal GDP Under Structural Breaks," Staff Working Papers 14-39, Bank of Canada.

  25. Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2013. "A New Approach to Infer Changes in the Synchronization of Business Cycle Phases," MPRA Paper 54452, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Cited by:

    1. Camacho, Maximo & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2019. "The Propagation Of Industrial Business Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 144-177, January.
    2. Maximo Camacho & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2016. "Country Shocks, Monetary Policy Expectations and ECB Decisions. A Dynamic Non-linear Approach," Advances in Econometrics, in: Eric Hillebrand & Siem Jan Koopman (ed.), Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 283-316, Emerald Publishing Ltd.
    3. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Enrica De Cian & Malcolm Mistry & Anthony Osuntuyi, 2020. "The impact of Climate on Economic and Financial Cycles: A Markov-switching Panel Approach," Papers 2012.14693, arXiv.org.
    4. Komla M. Agudze & Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2021. "Markov Switching Panel with Endogenous Synchronization Effects," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS82, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    5. Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2015. "Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data," Staff Working Papers 15-24, Bank of Canada.
    6. Ductor, Lorenzo & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2016. "Dynamics of global business cycle interdependence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 110-127.

Articles

  1. Danilo Leiva-Leon & Jaime Martinez-Martin & Eva Ortega, 2022. "Exchange Rate Shocks and Inflation Co-movement in the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(1), pages 239-275, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Ductor, Lorenzo & Leiva-León, Danilo, 2022. "Fluctuations in global output volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).

    Cited by:

    1. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Effect of structural economic vulnerability on the participation in international trade," EconStor Preprints 262004, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

  3. Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2020. "Markov-Switching Three-Pass Regression Filter," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 285-302, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Gadea-Rivas, María Dolores & Gómez-Loscos, Ana & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2019. "Increasing linkages among European regions. The role of sectoral composition," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 222-243.

    Cited by:

    1. María Gil & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Javier J. Pérez & Alberto Urtasun, 2019. "An application of dynamic factor models to nowcast regional economic activity in Spain," Occasional Papers 1904, Banco de España.
    2. Gomez-Loscos, Ana & Gadea, M. Dolores & Bandres, Eduardo, 2018. "Business cycle patterns in European regions," MPRA Paper 83964, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  5. Funke, Michael & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Tsang, Andrew, 2019. "Mapping China’s time-varying house price landscape," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Camacho, Maximo & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2019. "The Propagation Of Industrial Business Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 144-177, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Danilo Leiva & Jaime Martínez-Martín & Eva Ortega, 2018. "Recent movements in the euro exchange rate and the impact on inflation in the Spanish economy," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue DEC, pages 1-8.

    Cited by:

    1. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2019. "An Investigation of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Baltic States," CEIS Research Paper 469, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 17 Sep 2019.

  8. Guérin, Pierre & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2017. "Model averaging in Markov-switching models: Predicting national recessions with regional data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 45-49.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  9. Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "Measuring Business Cycles Intra-Synchronization in US: A Regime-switching Interdependence Framework," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(4), pages 513-545, August. See citations under working paper version above.
  10. Barnett, William A. & Chauvet, Marcelle & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2016. "Real-time nowcasting of nominal GDP with structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(2), pages 312-324.

    Cited by:

    1. Fokin, Nikita, 2021. "The importance of modeling structural breaks in forecasting Russian GDP," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 63, pages 5-29.
    2. Barnett, William & Suvra Bhadury, Soumya & Ghosh, Taniya, 2015. "An SVAR Approach to Evaluation of Monetary Policy in India: Solution to the Exchange Rate Puzzles in an Open Economy," Studies in Applied Economics 41, The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.
    3. Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2017. "Markov-Switching Three-Pass Regression Filter," Staff Working Papers 17-13, Bank of Canada.
    4. Ellington, Michael, 2018. "The case for Divisia monetary statistics: A Bayesian time-varying approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 26-41.
    5. Gilbert Mbara, 2017. "Business Cycle Dating after the Great Moderation: A Consistent Two – Stage Maximum Likelihood Method," Working Papers 2017-13, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    6. Gong, Xu & Lin, Boqiang, 2018. "Structural changes and out-of-sample prediction of realized range-based variance in the stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 494(C), pages 27-39.
    7. Abel Rodríguez Tirado & Marcelo Delajara & Federico Hernández Álvarez, 2016. "Nowcasting Mexico’s Short-Term GDP Growth in Real-Time: A Factor Model versus Professional Forecasters," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2016), pages 167-182, October.
    8. Xu Gong & Boqiang Lin, 2021. "Effects of structural changes on the prediction of downside volatility in futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(7), pages 1124-1153, July.
    9. Makram El-Shagi & Kiril Tochkov, 2021. "Divisia Monetary Aggregates for Russia: Money Demand, GDP Nowcasting, and the Price Puzzle," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2021/1, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.

  11. Ductor, Lorenzo & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2016. "Dynamics of global business cycle interdependence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 110-127.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  12. Leiva-Leon Danilo, 2014. "Real vs. nominal cycles: a multistate Markov-switching bi-factor approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(5), pages 1-24, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.

Chapters

  1. Elías Albagli & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Diego Saravia, 2016. "U.S. Monetary Spillovers to Latin America: The Role of Long-term Interest Rates," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Elías Albagli & Diego Saravia & Michael Woodford (ed.),Monetary Policy through Asset Markets: Lessons from Unconventional Measures and Implications for an Integrated World, edition 1, volume 24, chapter 9, pages 285-307, Central Bank of Chile.

    Cited by:

    1. Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Malagon, Jonathan, 2018. "Financial spillovers of international monetary policy: Six hypotheses on the Latin American case, 2010-2016," CEPR Discussion Papers 12678, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

  2. Maximo Camacho & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2016. "Country Shocks, Monetary Policy Expectations and ECB Decisions. A Dynamic Non-linear Approach," Advances in Econometrics, in: Eric Hillebrand & Siem Jan Koopman (ed.), Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 283-316, Emerald Publishing Ltd.
    See citations under working paper version above.

More information

Research fields, statistics, top rankings, if available.

Statistics

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Rankings

This author is among the top 5% authors according to these criteria:
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Co-authorship network on CollEc

NEP Fields

NEP is an announcement service for new working papers, with a weekly report in each of many fields. This author has had 41 papers announced in NEP. These are the fields, ordered by number of announcements, along with their dates. If the author is listed in the directory of specialists for this field, a link is also provided.
  1. NEP-MON: Monetary Economics (12) 2015-08-30 2015-09-26 2015-09-26 2016-08-28 2016-08-28 2017-08-27 2019-10-28 2020-03-30 2020-06-22 2021-09-27 2021-10-18 2022-02-07. Author is listed
  2. NEP-EEC: European Economics (11) 2015-08-30 2015-09-26 2017-09-24 2019-03-18 2019-10-28 2020-03-30 2020-07-27 2021-09-27 2021-10-18 2021-11-22 2022-02-07. Author is listed
  3. NEP-ORE: Operations Research (10) 2014-11-17 2016-03-06 2017-05-07 2017-07-30 2018-01-29 2019-07-15 2020-06-22 2021-10-18 2021-11-22 2022-02-07. Author is listed
  4. NEP-FOR: Forecasting (9) 2014-11-17 2014-12-03 2016-03-06 2017-07-30 2019-03-18 2021-09-27 2021-10-18 2021-11-22 2022-02-07. Author is listed
  5. NEP-URE: Urban & Real Estate Economics (9) 2016-03-06 2017-02-26 2017-07-30 2018-01-01 2019-03-18 2019-09-30 2021-07-19 2021-09-20 2022-02-21. Author is listed
  6. NEP-CBA: Central Banking (8) 2015-08-30 2015-09-26 2015-09-26 2020-03-30 2020-05-18 2020-06-22 2021-09-27 2021-10-18. Author is listed
  7. NEP-ETS: Econometric Time Series (7) 2016-03-06 2017-07-30 2017-07-30 2018-01-29 2019-03-18 2020-05-18 2021-08-09. Author is listed
  8. NEP-OPM: Open Economy Macroeconomics (5) 2019-07-15 2019-10-28 2020-03-30 2020-06-22 2020-07-27. Author is listed
  9. NEP-ISF: Islamic Finance (4) 2020-10-12 2021-08-09 2021-09-20 2021-09-27
  10. NEP-CIS: Confederation of Independent States (3) 2020-03-30 2020-06-22 2020-10-12
  11. NEP-CNA: China (3) 2018-01-01 2019-09-30 2020-06-22
  12. NEP-ECM: Econometrics (3) 2014-11-17 2014-12-03 2020-05-18
  13. NEP-RMG: Risk Management (3) 2020-03-30 2022-07-11 2022-07-18
  14. NEP-BEC: Business Economics (2) 2014-12-08 2017-08-20
  15. NEP-CWA: Central & Western Asia (2) 2021-09-20 2022-02-21
  16. NEP-IFN: International Finance (2) 2020-03-30 2020-06-22
  17. NEP-TRA: Transition Economics (2) 2018-01-01 2019-09-30
  18. NEP-ACC: Accounting & Auditing (1) 2016-08-28
  19. NEP-BAN: Banking (1) 2021-11-22
  20. NEP-DEM: Demographic Economics (1) 2022-07-18
  21. NEP-GER: German Papers (1) 2015-08-30
  22. NEP-HEA: Health Economics (1) 2020-03-30
  23. NEP-PAY: Payment Systems & Financial Technology (1) 2016-08-28

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