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A New Approach to Infer Changes in the Synchronization of Business Cycle Phases


  • Leiva-Leon, Danilo


This paper proposes a Markov-switching framework useful to endogenously identify regimes where economies enter recessionary and expansionary phases synchronously, and regimes where economies are unsynchronized following independent business cycle phases. The reliability of the framework to track synchronization changes is corroborated with Monte Carlo experiments. An application to the case of U.S. states reports substantial changes over time in the cyclical affiliation patterns of states. Moreover, a network analysis discloses a change in the propagation pattern of aggregate contractionary shocks across states, suggesting that regional economies in U.S. have become more interdependent since the early 90s.

Suggested Citation

  • Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2013. "A New Approach to Infer Changes in the Synchronization of Business Cycle Phases," MPRA Paper 54452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:54452

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eme:aecozz:s0731-905320150000035007 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Guérin, Pierre & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2017. "Model averaging in Markov-switching models: Predicting national recessions with regional data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 45-49.
    3. Ductor, Lorenzo & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2016. "Dynamics of global business cycle interdependence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 110-127.
    4. Maximo Camacho & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2014. "The Propagation of Industrial Business Cycles," Staff Working Papers 14-48, Bank of Canada.
    5. Maximo Camacho & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2016. "Country Shocks, Monetary Policy Expectations and ECB Decisions. A Dynamic Non-linear Approach," Advances in Econometrics,in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 283-316 Emerald Publishing Ltd.

    More about this item


    Business Cycles; Markov-Switching; Network Analysis.;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles


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