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The Propagation of Industrial Business Cycles

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  • Maximo Camacho
  • Danilo Leiva-Leon

Abstract

This paper examines the business cycle linkages that propagate industry-specific business cycle shocks throughout the economy in a way that (sometimes) generates aggregated cycles. The transmission of sectoral business cycles is modelled through a multivariate Markov-switching model, which is estimated by Gibbs sampling. Using nonparametric density estimation approaches, we find that the number and location of modes in the distribution of industrial dissimilarities change over the business cycle. There is a relatively stable trimodal pattern during expansionary and recessionary phases characterized by highly, moderately and lowly synchronized industries. However, during phase changes, the density mass spreads from moderately synchronized industries to lowly synchronized industries. This agrees with a sequential transmission of the industrial business cycle dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Maximo Camacho & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2014. "The Propagation of Industrial Business Cycles," Staff Working Papers 14-48, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:14-48
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Maximo Camacho & Fernando Soto, 2018. "Consumer confidence’s boom and bust in Latin America," Working Papers 18/02, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    2. repec:zbw:bofitp:2017_021 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Lirios Alos-Simo & Antonio J. Verdu-Jover & Jose M. Gomez-Gras, 2020. "Knowledge Transfer in Sustainable Contexts: A Comparative Analysis of Periods of Financial Recession and Expansion," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-24, June.
    4. Corinna Ghirelli & Danilo Leiva-León & Alberto Urtasun, 2023. "Housing prices in Spain: convergence or decoupling?," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 165-187, June.
    5. Funke, Michael & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Tsang, Andrew, 2019. "Mapping China’s time-varying house price landscape," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    6. Funke, Michael & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Tsang, Andrew, 2019. "Mapping China’s time-varying house price landscape," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    7. Agudze, Komla M. & Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2022. "Markov switching panel with endogenous synchronization effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 230(2), pages 281-298.
    8. Paflioti, Persa & Vitsounis, Thomas K. & Teye, Collins & Bell, Michael G.H. & Tsamourgelis, Ioannis, 2017. "Box dynamics: A sectoral approach to analyse containerized port throughput interdependencies," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 396-413.
    9. Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "Monetary policy, stock market and sectoral comovement," Working Papers 1731, Banco de España.
    10. Ductor, Lorenzo & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2016. "Dynamics of global business cycle interdependence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 110-127.
    11. Wang, Xiaoyu & Sun, Yanlin & Peng, Bin, 2023. "Industrial linkage and clustered regional business cycles in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 59-72.
    12. Guisinger, Amy Y. & Owyang, Michael T. & Soques, Daniel, 2024. "Industrial Connectedness and Business Cycle Comovements," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 132-149.
    13. Gadea-Rivas, María Dolores & Gómez-Loscos, Ana & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2019. "Increasing linkages among European regions. The role of sectoral composition," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 222-243.
    14. María Dolores Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "The evolution of regional economic interlinkages in Europe," Working Papers 1705, Banco de España.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business fluctuations and cycles; Domestic demand and components; Econometric and statistical methods;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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