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Cyclical implications of the declining manufacturing employment share

Listed author(s):
  • Andrew J. Filardo

Over the last 35 years, the U.S. economy has created service sector jobs at a faster pace than manufacturing sector jobs. Not only has this trend led to a significant shift in the composition of the labor force from manufacturing to services, but it has also fundamentally changed the characteristics of the average workplace. ; Some economists have argued that the ongoing structural shifts from manufacturing employment to services employment may have had the additional consequence of smoothing the business cycle. A smoother cycle would be welcomed and would yield several benefits. The economy would grow more stably and would provide a more predictable backdrop for working, saving, and investing. ; Filardo investigates whether the shift from manufacturing to services employment has muted the business cycle. He concludes that the declining manufacturing employment share may have substantially changed the workplace but has had little impact on the smoothness of the business cycle.

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File URL: http://www.kansascityfed.org/publicat/econrev/pdf/2q97fila.pdf
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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in its journal Economic Review.

Volume (Year): (1997)
Issue (Month): Q II ()
Pages: 63-87

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedker:y:1997:i:qii:p:63-87:n:v.82no.2
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  1. Victor R. Fuchs, 1968. "Some Implications of the Growth of a Service Economy," NBER Chapters,in: The Service Economy, pages 183-199 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Robert Gordon, 1995. "Problems in the Measurement and Performance of Service-Sector Productivity in the United States," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Palle Andersen & Jacqueline Dwyer & David Gruen (ed.), Productivity and Growth Reserve Bank of Australia.
  3. Watson, Mark W, 1994. "Business-Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 24-46, March.
  4. Victor R. Fuchs, 1968. "The Service Economy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number fuch68-1, Enero-Jun.
  5. Christiano, Lawrence J, 1992. "Searching for a Break in GNP," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 237-250, July.
  6. Zvi Griliches, 1992. "Introduction to "Output Measurement in the Service Sectors"," NBER Chapters,in: Output Measurement in the Service Sectors, pages 1-22 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. John W. Kendrick, 1961. "Productivity Trends in the United States," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kend61-1, Enero-Jun.
  8. Zvi Griliches, 1992. "Output Measurement in the Service Sectors," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gril92-1, Enero-Jun.
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