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The Role of Output Composition in the Stabilization of U.S. Output Growth

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  • Andrew Eggers
  • Yannis Ioannides

Abstract

US output growth became much more stable over the past half-century. This paper assesses the role of changes in the composition of output | the increasing importance of stable sectors and diminishing importance of volatile sectors | in this stabilization. Our decomposition of output growth volatility by one-digit industry indicates that a bit less than half of the drop in volatility between the pre- and post-1982 periods is accounted for by compositional shifts, most notably the decline of manufacturing.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Eggers & Yannis Ioannides, 2004. "The Role of Output Composition in the Stabilization of U.S. Output Growth," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0422, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
    • Handle: RePEc:tuf:tuftec:0422
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
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    5. Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Margaret M. McConnell, 2000. "Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed since the Early 1980's?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1464-1476, December.
    6. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "Has The U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based On A Markov-Switching Model Of The Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 608-616, November.
    7. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Carlos R. Barrera Chaupis, 2018. "Inventory Adjustments to Demand Shocks under Flexible Specifications," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 149-201, january-j.
    3. Fang, WenShwo & Miller, Stephen M., 2009. "Modeling the volatility of real GDP growth: The case of Japan revisited," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 312-324, August.
    4. Kimura, Takeshi & Shiotani, Kyosuke, 2009. "Stabilized business cycles with increased output volatility at high frequencies," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-19, March.
    5. Anna Batyra, 2007. "Are turbulences of Sargent and Ljungqvist consistent with lower aggregate volatility?," 2007 Meeting Papers 413, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Parijat Maitra, 2022. "Inventories and business Cycles: The story of the last three decades," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(2), pages 553-565.
    7. Song, Malin & Ma, Xiaowei & Shang, Yuping & Zhao, Xin, 2020. "Influences of land resource assets on economic growth and fluctuation in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    8. Dongchao Zhang & Fangyi Jiao & Xiyue Zheng & Jianing Pang, 2023. "Analysis of the Influence Mechanism of New Urbanization on High-Quality Economic Development in Northeast China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-22, May.
    9. Dongyeol Lee & Hyunjoon Lim, 2019. "Industrial structure and the probability of crisis: Stability is not resilience," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 212-226, January.
    10. Huang, Ho-Chuan (River) & Fang, WenShwo & Miller, Stephen M., 2014. "Does financial development volatility affect industrial growth volatility?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 307-320.
    11. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller & ChunShen Lee, 2008. "Cross‐Country Evidence On Output Growth Volatility: Nonstationary Variance And Garch Models," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 55(4), pages 509-541, September.
    12. Cheng Dazhong & Tang Yutong & Shao Xinyi, 2025. "Growth of the Service Sector and Economic Fluctuations: A Production Network Perspective," China Finance and Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 23-49.
    13. Wen‐Shwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2008. "The Great Moderation and the Relationship between Output Growth and Its Volatility," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 74(3), pages 819-838, January.
    14. Hongsheng Fang & Xiangrong Jin, 2010. "Role Of Economic Structural Adjustment For Long‐Term Economic Stability In China: Estimation Based On Variance Decomposition," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(5), pages 637-652, December.
    15. Barrera, Carlos R., 2011. "Impacto amplificador del ajuste de inventarios ante choques de demanda según especificaciones flexibles," Working Papers 2011-009, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    16. Yang, Xin & Wang, Xuya & Cao, Jie & Zhao, Lili & Huang, Chuangxia, 2024. "Cross-regional connectedness of financial market: Measurement and determinants," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production

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