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Role Of Economic Structural Adjustment For Long‐Term Economic Stability In China: Estimation Based On Variance Decomposition

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  • Hongsheng Fang
  • Xiangrong Jin

Abstract

Based on the variance decomposition method of Eggers and Ioannides, the sources of long-term stability of the Chinese economy since the mid‐1990s are estimated and the potential influence of structural optimization is predicted. Results show that: (i) the contribution of industrial structural adjustment was a negative 46.38%; and (ii) if the share of the expenditure structure was adjusted to the average level in the early period, the contribution of structural optimization would be approximately 38.25%. Moreover, it is believed that a reasonable economic structure can be achieved only through the implementation of a development strategy that takes comparative advantage into consideration.

Suggested Citation

  • Hongsheng Fang & Xiangrong Jin, 2010. "Role Of Economic Structural Adjustment For Long‐Term Economic Stability In China: Estimation Based On Variance Decomposition," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(5), pages 637-652, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:pacecr:v:15:y:2010:i:5:p:637-652
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1468-0106.2010.00520.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Margaret M. McConnell, 2000. "Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed since the Early 1980's?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1464-1476, December.
    2. Yiping Huang & Bijun Wang, 2010. "Cost Distortions and Structural Imbalances in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 18(s1), pages 1-17.
    3. Eggers, Andrew & Ioannides, Yannis M., 2006. "The role of output composition in the stabilization of US output growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 585-595, September.
    4. Francis E. Warnock & Veronica C. Warnock, 2000. "The declining volatility of U.S. employment: was Arthur Burns right?," International Finance Discussion Papers 677, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    Cited by:

    1. Julan Du & Hongsheng Fang & Xiangrong Jin, 2013. "Chinese Political and Economic Governance System and the Imbalance between Consumption and Investment," Working Papers 232013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    2. Du, Julan & Fang, Hongsheng & Jin, Xiangrong, 2014. "The “growth-first strategy” and the imbalance between consumption and investment in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 441-458.
    3. Shiyi Chen & Amelia U. Santos-Paulino, 2013. "Energy Consumption and Carbon Emission Based Industrial Productivity in China: A Sustainable Development Analysis," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 644-661, November.

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