IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0190076.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sectoral networks and macroeconomic tail risks in an emerging economy

Author

Listed:
  • Pedro P Romero
  • Ricardo López
  • Carlos Jiménez

Abstract

This paper aims to explain the macroeconomic volatility due to microeconomic shocks to one or several sectors, recognizing the non-symmetrical relation in the interaction among the Ecuadorian economic sectors. To grasp the economic structure of this emerging economy, a statistical analysis of network data is applied to the respective input-output matrix of Ecuador from 1975 until 2012. We find periods wherein the production of domestic inputs is concentrated in a few suppliers; for example, in 2010, the concentration significantly affects sectors and their downstream providers, thus influencing aggregate volatility. Compared to the US productive structure, this emerging economy presents fewer sectors and degree distributions with less extreme fat-tail behavior. In this simpler economy, we continue to find a link between microeconomic shocks and aggregate volatility. Two new theoretical propositions are introduced to formalize our results.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro P Romero & Ricardo López & Carlos Jiménez, 2018. "Sectoral networks and macroeconomic tail risks in an emerging economy," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(1), pages 1-17, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0190076
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0190076
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0190076
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0190076&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0190076?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vasco Carvalho, 2007. "Aggregate fluctuations and the network structure of intersectoral trade," Economics Working Papers 1206, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2010.
    2. Andrew T. Foerster & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2011. "Sectoral versus Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-38.
    3. Daron Acemoglu & Vasco M. Carvalho & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz‐Salehi, 2012. "The Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(5), pages 1977-2016, September.
    4. Ando, Sakai, 2014. "Measuring US sectoral shocks in the world input–output network," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(2), pages 204-207.
    5. Vasco Carvalho & Xavier Gabaix, 2013. "The Great Diversification and Its Undoing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1697-1727, August.
    6. Xavier Gabaix, 2011. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 733-772, May.
    7. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
    8. Robert C. Johnson, 2014. "Trade in Intermediate Inputs and Business Cycle Comovement," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 39-83, October.
    9. Kenan Huremovic & Fernando Vega-Redondo, 2016. "Production Networks," AMSE Working Papers 1633, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    10. Romain Rancière & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2008. "Systemic Crises and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 123(1), pages 359-406.
    11. Timothy G. Conley & Bill Dupor, 2003. "A Spatial Analysis of Sectoral Complementarity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(2), pages 311-352, April.
    12. Dupor, Bill, 1999. "Aggregation and irrelevance in multi-sector models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 391-409, April.
    13. Jackson, Matthew O. & Watts, Alison, 2002. "The Evolution of Social and Economic Networks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 265-295, October.
    14. Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2010. "Cascades in Networks and Aggregate Volatility," NBER Working Papers 16516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Horvath, Michael, 2000. "Sectoral shocks and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 69-106, February.
    16. Michael Horvath, 1998. "Cyclicality and Sectoral Linkages: Aggregate Fluctuations from Independent Sectoral Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(4), pages 781-808, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kristina Barauskaite & Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen, 2021. "Direct and network effects of idiosyncratic TFP shocks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(6), pages 2765-2793, June.
    2. Barauskaite, Kristina & Nguyen, Anh D.M., 2021. "Global intersectoral production network and aggregate fluctuations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    3. Anthonisen, Niels, 2016. "Microeconomic shocks and macroeconomic fluctuations in a dynamic network economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB), pages 233-254.
    4. Roberto Roson & Martina Sartori, 2016. "Input--output linkages and the propagation of domestic productivity shocks: assessing alternative theories with stochastic simulation," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 38-54, March.
    5. Dong, Feng & Wen, Yi, 2019. "Long and Plosser meet Bewley and Lucas," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 70-92.
    6. Tian, Can, 2021. "Input-output linkages in Pigouvian industrial fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 1078-1095.
    7. David Rezza Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2019. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Microeconomic Shocks: Beyond Hulten's Theorem," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(4), pages 1155-1203, July.
    8. Ernesto Pasten & Raphael S. Schoenle & Michael Weber & Michael Weber, 2017. "Price Rigidities and the Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," CESifo Working Paper Series 6619, CESifo.
    9. Glenn Magerman & Karolien De Bruyne & Emmanuel Dhyne & Jan Van Hove, 2016. "Heterogeneous Firms and the Micro Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2016-35, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    10. Camacho, Maximo & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2019. "The Propagation Of Industrial Business Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 144-177, January.
    11. Ernesto Pasten & Raphael Schoenle & Michael Weber, 2017. "Price Rigidity and the Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 23750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Yukiko Saito & Makoto Nirei & Vasco Carvalho, 2014. "Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from Great East Japan Earthquake," 2014 Meeting Papers 595, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Stefano Costa & Federico Sallusti & Claudio Vicarelli, 2021. "Trade networks and shock transmission within the Italian production system," LEM Papers Series 2021/15, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    14. Lorenzo Burlon, 2012. "How Do Aggregate Fluctuations Depend on the Network Structure of the Economy?," Working Papers in Economics 278, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
    15. Li, Nan & Martin, Vance L., 2019. "Real sectoral spillovers: A dynamic factor analysis of the great recession," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 77-95.
    16. Leonidov, Andrey & Serebryannikova, Ekaterina, 2019. "Dynamical topology of highly aggregated input–output networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 518(C), pages 234-252.
    17. Dongyeol Lee, 2019. "Transmission of Domestic and External Shocks through Input-Output Network: Evidence from Korean Industries," IMF Working Papers 2019/117, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Shaowen Luo, 2020. "Propagation of Financial Shocks in an Input-Output Economy with Trade and Financial Linkages of Firms," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 36, pages 246-269, April.
    19. Dimas Mateus Fazio & Thiago Christiano Silva & Janis Skrastins, 2020. "Economic Resilience: spillovers, courts, and vertical integration," Working Papers Series 531, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    20. Altinoglu, Levent, 2021. "The origins of aggregate fluctuations in a credit network economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 316-334.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0190076. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.