IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/red/sed015/1157.html

Ownership networks and aggregate volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Lorenzo Burlon

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

We study how aggregate volatility is influenced by the propagation of idiosyncratic shocks across firms through the network of ownership relations. To this purpose, we use detailed data on cross-holdings as well as relevant balance sheet information for almost the universe of Italian limited liability firms over the period 2005-2013. We first document that the ownership network matters for the correlation across firms' sales. Then, we construct a model where firms are linked through ownership relations and have limited access to credit markets. We characterize key features of the network structure that are relevant for the dynamics of the economy. A calibration to key features of the Italian economy shows that the model-implied volatility can account for a sizable percentage of actual GDP fluctuations. Moreover, we conduct a counterfactual exercise to isolate the role played by the network structure alone in the propagation of idiosyncratic shocks to the aggregate level.

Suggested Citation

  • Lorenzo Burlon, 2015. "Ownership networks and aggregate volatility," 2015 Meeting Papers 1157, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed015:1157
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://red-files-public.s3.amazonaws.com/meetpapers/2015/paper_1157.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vasco Carvalho & Nico Voigtländer, 2014. "Input diffusion and the evolution of production networks," Economics Working Papers 1418, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Feb 2015.
    2. Vasco M. Carvalho, 2014. "From Micro to Macro via Production Networks," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 23-48, Fall.
    3. Daron Acemoglu & Vasco M. Carvalho & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz‐Salehi, 2012. "The Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(5), pages 1977-2016, September.
    4. Acemoglu,Daron & Arellano,Manuel & Dekel,Eddie (ed.), 2013. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107016064, January.
    5. Dhritman Bhattacharya & Nezih Guner & Gustavo Ventura, 2013. "Distortions, Endogenous Managerial Skills and Productivity Differences," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(1), pages 11-25, January.
    6. Enghin Atalay & Ali Horta?su & Chad Syverson, 2014. "Vertical Integration and Input Flows," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(4), pages 1120-1148, April.
    7. Acemoglu,Daron & Arellano,Manuel & Dekel,Eddie (ed.), 2013. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107638105, January.
    8. Saki Bigio, 2013. "Financial Frictions in Production Networks," 2013 Meeting Papers 121, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Vasco M. Carvalho, 2015. "From Micro to Macro via Production Networks," Working Papers 793, Barcelona School of Economics.
    10. Bulow, Jeremy I & Geanakoplos, John D & Klemperer, Paul D, 1985. "Multimarket Oligopoly: Strategic Substitutes and Complements," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(3), pages 488-511, June.
    11. Acemoglu,Daron & Arellano,Manuel & Dekel,Eddie (ed.), 2013. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107016057, January.
    12. Thomas Chaney, 2014. "The Network Structure of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(11), pages 3600-3634, November.
    13. Bianco, Magda & Nicodano, Giovanna, 2006. "Pyramidal groups and debt," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 937-961, May.
    14. Andrew T. Foerster & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2011. "Sectoral versus Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-38.
    15. Acemoglu,Daron & Arellano,Manuel & Dekel,Eddie (ed.), 2013. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107674165, January.
    16. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-1311, July.
    17. Xavier Gabaix, 2011. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 733-772, May.
    18. Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos & Martin Shubik, 2005. "Default and Punishment in General Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(1), pages 1-37, January.
    19. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
    20. Antonio Cabrales & Piero Gottardi & Fernando Vega-Redondo, 2017. "Risk Sharing and Contagion in Networks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(9), pages 3086-3127.
    21. Giacinta Cestone & Chiara Fumagalli, 2005. "The Strategic Impact of Resource Flexibility in Business Groups," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 36(1), pages 193-214, Spring.
    22. Renzo Orsi & Francesco Turino, 2014. "The last fifteen years of stagnation in Italy: a business cycle accounting perspective," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 469-494, September.
    23. Ezra Oberfield, 2011. "Business networks, production chains and productivity: A theory of input-output architecture," Working Paper Series WP-2011-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    24. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/7an8r1ubqs93caeqs80puld0tp is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko & Isabelle Mejean, 2014. "Firms, Destinations, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(4), pages 1303-1340, July.
    26. Giacinta Cestone & Chiara Fumagalli, 2005. "The Strategic Impact of Resource Flexibility in Business Groups," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 36(4), pages 193-214, Winter.
    27. Brioschi, Francesco & Buzzacchi, Luigi & Colombo, Massimo G., 1989. "Risk capital financing and the separation of ownership and control in business groups," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 747-772, September.
    28. Lamont, Owen, 1997. "Cash Flow and Investment: Evidence from Internal Capital Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 83-109, March.
    29. Charles F. Manski, 1993. "Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: The Reflection Problem," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(3), pages 531-542.
    30. Robert H. Gertner & David S. Scharfstein & Jeremy C. Stein, 1994. "Internal versus External Capital Markets," NBER Working Papers 4776, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Robert H. Gertner & David S. Scharfstein & Jeremy C. Stein, 1994. "Internal versus External Capital Markets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(4), pages 1211-1230.
    32. Acemoglu,Daron & Arellano,Manuel & Dekel,Eddie (ed.), 2013. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107627314, January.
    33. Acemoglu,Daron & Arellano,Manuel & Dekel,Eddie (ed.), 2013. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107016040, January.
    34. Guerrieri, Luca & Iacoviello, Matteo, 2015. "OccBin: A toolkit for solving dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints easily," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 22-38.
    35. Gaiotti, Eugenio, 2013. "Credit availability and investment: Lessons from the “great recession”," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 212-227.
    36. Dupor, Bill, 1999. "Aggregation and irrelevance in multi-sector models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 391-409, April.
    37. Ricardo Hausmann & César Hidalgo, 2011. "The network structure of economic output," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 309-342, December.
    38. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-417, June.
    39. Dow, Sandra & McGuire, Jean, 2009. "Propping and tunneling: Empirical evidence from Japanese keiretsu," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1817-1828, October.
    40. Brusco, Sandro & Panunzi, Fausto, 2005. "Reallocation of corporate resources and managerial incentives in internal capital markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 659-681, April.
    41. Riyanto, Yohanes E. & Toolsema, Linda A., 2008. "Tunneling and propping: A justification for pyramidal ownership," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2178-2187, October.
    42. Michael Horvath, 1998. "Cyclicality and Sectoral Linkages: Aggregate Fluctuations from Independent Sectoral Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(4), pages 781-808, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nicolò Gnocato & Concetta Rondinelli, 2018. "Granular sources of the Italian business cycle," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1190, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Brancaccio, Emiliano & Giammetti, Raffaele & Lopreite, Milena & Puliga, Michelangelo, 2018. "Centralization of capital and financial crisis: A global network analysis of corporate control," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 94-104.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Basile Grassi & Julien Sauvagnat, 2019. "Production networks and economic policy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 35(4), pages 638-677.
    2. Shaowen Luo, 2020. "Propagation of Financial Shocks in an Input-Output Economy with Trade and Financial Linkages of Firms," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 36, pages 246-269, April.
    3. Alonso de Gortari, 2018. "Disentangling Global Value Chains," 2018 Meeting Papers 139, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2017. "Microeconomic Origins of Macroeconomic Tail Risks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(1), pages 54-108, January.
    5. Ernesto Pasten & Raphael S. Schoenle & Michael Weber & Michael Weber, 2017. "Price Rigidities and the Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," CESifo Working Paper Series 6619, CESifo.
    6. Hansen, G.D. & Ohanian, L.E., 2016. "Neoclassical Models in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2043-2130, Elsevier.
    7. Ernesto Pasten & Raphael Schoenle & Michael Weber, 2017. "Price Rigidity and the Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 23750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Pasten, Ernesto & Schoenle, Raphael & Weber, Michael, 2017. "Price rigidities and the granular origins of aggregate fluctuations," Working Paper Series 2102, European Central Bank.
    9. Barauskaite, Kristina & Nguyen, Anh D.M., 2021. "Global intersectoral production network and aggregate fluctuations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    10. Hsuan-Li Su, 2024. "Financial Frictions, Capital Misallocation, and Input-Output Linkages," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 62-94, April.
    11. Glenn Magerman & Karolien De Bruyne & Emmanuel Dhyne & Jan Van Hove, 2016. "Heterogeneous firms and the micro origins of aggregate fluctuations," Working Paper Research 312, National Bank of Belgium.
    12. Shaowen Luo & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2020. "China And World Output Impact Of The Hubei Lockdown During The Coronavirus Outbreak," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(4), pages 583-592, October.
    13. Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel, 2017. "Cascades and Fluctuations in an Economy with an Endogenous Production Network," 2017 Meeting Papers 700, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Dong, Feng & Wen, Yi, 2019. "Long and Plosser meet Bewley and Lucas," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 70-92.
    15. Áureo de Paula, 2015. "Econometrics of network models," CeMMAP working papers 52/15, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    16. Alessandra Bonfiglioli & Rosario Crinò & Gino Gancia, 2018. "Firms and Economic Performance: A View from Trade," Working Papers 1047, Barcelona School of Economics.
    17. Erik Frohm & Vanessa Gunnella, 2021. "Spillovers in global production networks," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 663-680, August.
    18. Jonathan EATON & Samuel KORTUM & Francis KRAMARZ, 2016. "Firm-to-Firm Trade: Imports, exports, and the labor market," Discussion papers 16048, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    19. Frohm, Erik & Gunnella, Vanessa, 2017. "Sectoral interlinkages in global value chains: spillovers and network effects," Working Paper Series 2064, European Central Bank.
    20. Andrew T. Foerster & Andreas Hornstein & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2022. "Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(12), pages 3286-3333.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed015:1157. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.