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The last fifteen years of stagnation in Italy: A Business Cycle Accounting Perspective

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  • R. Orsi
  • F. Turino

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate possible sources of declining economic growth performance in Italy starting around the middle of the 90s. A long-run data analysis suggests that the poor performance of the Italian economy cannot be ascribed to an unfortunate business cycle contingency. The rest of the euro area countries have shown better performance, and the macroeconomic data show that the Italian economy has not grown as rapidly as these other European economies. We investigate the sources of economic fluctuations in Italy by applying the Business Cycle Accounting procedure introduced by Chari, Kehoe and McGrattan (2007). We analyze the relative importance of efficiency, labor, investment and government wedges for business cycles in Italy over the 1982-2008 period. We find that different wedges have played different roles during the period, but the efficiency wedge is revealed to be the main factor responsible for the stagnation phase beginning around 1995. Our findings also show that the improvement in labor market distortions that occurred in Italy during the 90s provided an alleviating effect, preventing an even stronger slowdown in per capita output growth.

Suggested Citation

  • R. Orsi & F. Turino, 2010. "The last fifteen years of stagnation in Italy: A Business Cycle Accounting Perspective," Working Papers 707, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    • Handle: RePEc:bol:bodewp:707
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    Cited by:

    1. Lorenzo Burlon, 2015. "Ownership networks and aggregate volatility," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1004, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Leal, Matheus Cardoso & Nakane, Márcio Issao, 2025. "Brazilian economy in the 2000’s: A tale of two recessions," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 6(1).
    3. Brinca, Pedro & João, Costa-Filho, 2021. "Output falls and the international transmission of crises," MPRA Paper 107297, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Pedro Brinca & João Ricardo Costa Filho & Francesca Loria, 2024. "Business cycle accounting: What have we learned so far?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 1276-1316, September.
    5. Brinca, Pedro & Costa-Filho, João, 2021. "Economic depression in Brazil: the 2014-2016 fall," MPRA Paper 107298, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Francesca Marino, 2013. "The Italian productivity slowdown in a Real Business Cycle perspective," SERIES 0046, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza - Università degli Studi di Bari "Aldo Moro", revised Apr 2013.
    7. Dubovyk Tetyana, 2014. "Growth Experience in Ukraine during Twenty Years of Independence: Business Cycle Accounting Perspective," EERC Working Paper Series 14/05e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    8. Madanizadeh, Seyed Ali & Karimirad, Ali & Rahmati, Mohammad H., 2019. "Business cycle accounting of trade barriers in a small open economy," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 67-78.
    9. Emmanuel Ameyaw, 2023. "The relevance of domestic and foreign factors in driving Ghana’s business cycle," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(9), pages 1-33, September.
    10. Renzo Orsi & Davide Raggi & Francesco Turino, 2014. "Size, Trend, and Policy Implications of the Underground Economy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(3), pages 417-436, July.
    11. Francesca Marino, 2016. "The Italian productivity slowdown in a Real Business Cycle perspective," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 63(2), pages 171-193, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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