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Size, Trend, and Policy Implications of the Underground Economy

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  • Renzo Orsi

    (University of Bologna)

  • Davide Raggi

    (University of Bologna)

  • Francesco Turino

    (University of Alicante)

Abstract

We study the underground economy within a dynamic and stochastic general equilibrium framework. Our model combines limited tax enforcement with an otherwise standard two-sector neoclassical stochastic growth model. The Bayesian estimation of the model based on Italian data provides evidence in favor of an important underground sector in Italy, with a size that has increased steadily over the whole sample period. We show that this pattern is due to a steady increase in taxation. Fiscal policy experiments suggest that a moderate tax cut, along with a stronger effort in the monitoring process, causes a sizeable reduction in the size of the underground economy and provides a positive stimulus for the regular economy. Both of these effects jointly increase total fiscal revenues. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Renzo Orsi & Davide Raggi & Francesco Turino, 2014. "Size, Trend, and Policy Implications of the Underground Economy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(3), pages 417-436, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:12-217
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2013.11.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Gerasimos T. Soldatos, 2016. "An Anti-Austerity Policy Recipe Against Debt Accumulation in the Presence of Hidden Economy," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(2), pages 90-99, February.
    2. Amedeo Argentiero & Carlo Andrea BOLLINO, 2013. "The Mmeasurement of Underground Economy: A Dynamic-Simulation Based Approach," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 123/2013, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.
    3. Barbara Annicchiarico & Claudio Cesaroni, 2018. "Tax reforms and the underground economy: a simulation-based analysis," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(2), pages 458-518, April.
    4. Solis-Garcia, Mario & Xie, Yingtong, 2018. "Measuring the size of the shadow economy using a dynamic general equilibrium model with trends," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 258-275.
    5. Bruno Chiarini & Maria Ferrara & Elisabetta Marzano, 2016. "Investment Shocks, Tax Evasion and the Consumption Puzzle: A DSGE Analysis with Financial Frictions," CESifo Working Paper Series 6015, CESifo Group Munich.
    6. Raffaella Basile & Bruno Chiarini & Giovanni Luca & Elisabetta Marzano, 2016. "Fiscal multipliers and unreported production: evidence for Italy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 877-896, November.
    7. Pappa, Evi & Sajedi, Rana & Vella, Eugenia, 2015. "Fiscal consolidation with tax evasion and corruption," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 56-75.
    8. Guriev, Sergei & Speciale, Biagio & Tuccio, Michele, 2016. "How do regulated and unregulated labor markets respond to shocks? Evidence from immigrants during the Great Recession," CEPR Discussion Papers 11403, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. repec:zbw:espost:170564 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE; Underground economy; Tax evasion; Bayesian estimation; Italy;

    JEL classification:

    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

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