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Underground economy and aggregate fluctuations

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Carlos Conesa
  • Carlos Diaz Moreno
  • Jose Enrique Galdon Sanchez

    (Universitat de Barcelona)

Abstract

This paper explores the role of underground economic activities as an explanation for cross-country differences in registered aggregate fluctuations. In order to do so, we develop a two-sector Real Business Cycle model calibrated to the USA economy. In our model, individuals will participate or not in registered economic activities according to the wage premium, i.e. the ratio of average wages to the minimum wage. Our main result is that exogenously specified differences in the wage premium could account for the high range of registered aggregate fluctuations found across countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Carlos Conesa & Carlos Diaz Moreno & Jose Enrique Galdon Sanchez, 1997. "Underground economy and aggregate fluctuations," Working Papers in Economics 17, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bar:bedcje:199717
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    Cited by:

    1. Solis-Garcia, Mario & Xie, Yingtong, 2017. "Is GDP more volatile in developing countries after taking the shadow economy into account? Evidence from Latin America," MPRA Paper 78965, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2015. "Welfare gains from the adoption of proportional taxation in a general-equilibrium model with a grey economy: the case of Bulgaria's 2008 flat tax reform," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, pages 169-185.
    3. Elgin, Ceyhun & Uras, Burak R., 2013. "Public debt, sovereign default risk and shadow economy," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 628-640.
    4. Amedeo Argentiero & Michele Bagella & Francesco Busato, 2008. "Money laundering in a two-sector model: using theory for measurement," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 341-359, December.
    5. Jose Maria Serrano & Maria Dolores Gadea, 2005. "What causes the hidden economy in Spain?," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 143-150, May.
    6. Busato, Francesco & Chiarini, Bruno & Marchetti, Enrico, 2011. "Indeterminacy, underground activities and tax evasion," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 831-844, May.
    7. Conesa, Juan Carlos & Diaz-Moreno, Carlos & Galdon-Sanchez, Jose Enrique, 2002. "Explaining cross-country differences in participation rates and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 333-345, February.
    8. repec:eee:quaeco:v:65:y:2017:i:c:p:61-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Renzo Orsi & Davide Raggi & Francesco Turino, 2014. "Size, Trend, and Policy Implications of the Underground Economy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(3), pages 417-436, July.
    10. Catalina Granda-Carvajal, 2010. "The Unofficial Economy and the Business Cycle: A Test for Theories," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 573-586.
    11. Atesagaoglu, Orhan Erem & Elgin, Ceyhun, 2015. "Cyclicality of labor wedge and informal sector," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 141-146.
    12. Ceyhun Elgin & Friedrich Schneider, 2016. "Shadow Economies in OECD Countries: DGE vs. MIMIC Approaches," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 30(1), pages 51-75.
    13. Maurizio Bovi & Peter Claeys, 2008. "Treasury V Dodgers. A Tale of Fiscal Consolidation and Tax Evasion," ISAE Working Papers 93 Classification-JEL E62, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
    14. Colombo, Emilio & Onnis, Luisanna & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2016. "Shadow economies at times of banking crises: Empirics and theory," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 180-190.
    15. Elgin, Ceyhun, 2013. "Internet usage and the shadow economy: Evidence from panel data," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 111-121.
    16. Miroslava Kostova Karaboytcheva & Carolina Silva Cassorla, 2015. "The shadow economy: a relevant factor for investment decisions in selected European Union countries," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 39(3), pages 305-323.
    17. Francesco Busato & Bruno Chiarini & Enrico Marchetti, 2005. "Fiscal Policy under Indeterminacy and Tax Evasion," Economics Working Papers 2005-09, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    18. Joanna Tyrowicz & Stanisław Cichocki, 2010. "Employed Unemployed? On Shadow Employment During Transition," Working Papers 2010-05, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    19. Silvia Sgherri, 2005. "Long-Run Productivity Shifts and Cyclical Fluctuations; Evidence for Italy," IMF Working Papers 05/228, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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