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Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake

  • Vasco M. CARVALHO
  • NIREI Makoto
  • SAITO Yukiko

This paper quantifies the spillover effect of exogenous shocks, such as earthquakes, on other firms through the supply chain network. Combining micro data on inter-firm transaction networks and geographic information systems, we examine firms' sales growth and transaction relationships outside the tsunami-hit areas before and after the Great East Japan Earthquake. We find that sales growth shows a negative but insignificant effect for firms with suppliers in the affected areas and a negative and significant effect for firms with customers in the affected areas. When we focus on exiting firms in the affected areas as the firms from where the spillovers originated, the sales growth of linked firms outside the affected areas exhibits negative and significant effects for both upstream and downstream firms. Furthermore, significantly negative effects on downstream firms are shown for not only directly linked firms but also indirectly linked firms, with two and three degrees of separation. Finally, we find that firms tend to establish new transactions when they have transaction partners in the affected areas.

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Paper provided by Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) in its series Discussion papers with number 14035.

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Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:14035
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  1. SAITO Yukiko, 2013. "Role of Hub Firms in Geographical Transaction Network," Discussion papers 13080, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  2. Eric Strobl, 2011. "The Economic Growth Impact of Hurricanes: Evidence from U.S. Coastal Counties," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(2), pages 575-589, May.
  3. Sean HOLLY & Ivan PETRELLA, 2010. "Factor demand linkages, technology shocks and the business cycle," Center for Economic Studies - Discussion papers ces10.26, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën.
  4. Andrew T. Foerster & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Sectoral vs. Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production," NBER Working Papers 14389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Yasuyuki Todo & Kentaro Nakajima & Petr Matous, 2015. "How Do Supply Chain Networks Affect The Resilience Of Firms To Natural Disasters? Evidence From The Great East Japan Earthquake," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(2), pages 209-229, 03.
  6. SAITO (UMENO) Yukiko & WATANABE Tsutomu & IWAMURA Mitsuru, 2007. "Do Larger Firms Have More Interfirm Relationships?," Discussion papers 07028, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  7. Carvalho, Vasco M & Gabaix, Xavier, 2010. "The Great Diversification and its Undoing," CEPR Discussion Papers 8044, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Vasco Carvalho, 2007. "Aggregate fluctuations and the network structure of intersectoral trade," Economics Working Papers 1206, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2010.
  9. Hosono, Kaoru & Miyakawa, Daisuke & Uchino, Taisuke & Hazama, Makoto & Ono, Arito & Uchida, Hirofumi & Uesugi, Iichiro, 2012. "Natural Disasters, Damage to Banks, and Firm Investment," Working Paper Series 18, Center for Interfirm Network, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  10. Noy, Ilan, 2009. "The macroeconomic consequences of disasters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 221-231, March.
  11. NAKAJIMA Kentaro & SAITO Yukiko Umeno & UESUGI Iichiro, 2012. "Localization of Interfirm Transaction Relationships and Industry Agglomeration," Discussion papers 12023, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  12. Andrew B. BERNARD & Andreas MOXNES & SAITO Yukiko, 2014. "Geography and Firm Performance in the Japanese Production Network," Discussion papers 14034, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  13. SAITO Yukiko, 2012. "The Impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake on Companies in the Non-affected Areas: Structure of the inter-company network of supply chains and its implication (Japanese)," Discussion Papers (Japanese) 12020, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
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