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The Micro Origins of International Business Cycle Comovement

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  • Julian Di Giovanni

    () (Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona GSE, CREI, CEPR)

  • Andrei A. Levchenko
  • Isabelle Méjean

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of individual firms in international business cycle comovement using data covering the universe of French firm-level value added, bilateral imports and exports, and cross-border ownership over the period 1993-2007. At the micro level, controlling for firm and country effects, trade in goods with a particular foreign country is associated with a significantly higher correlation between a firm and that foreign country. In addition, foreign multinational a liates operating in France are significantly more correlated with the source economy. The impact of direct trade and multinational linkages on comovement at the micro level has significant macro implications. Because internationally connected firms are systematically larger than noninternationally connected firms, the firms directly linked to foreign countries represent only 8% of all firms, but 56% of all value added, and account for 75% of the observed aggregate comovement. Without those linkages the correlation between France and foreign countries would fall by about 0.091, or one-third of the observed average business cycle correlation of 0.29 in our sample of partner countries. These results are evidence of transmission of business cycle shocks through direct trade and multinational ownership linkages at the firm level.

Suggested Citation

  • Julian Di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko & Isabelle Méjean, 2015. "The Micro Origins of International Business Cycle Comovement," Working Papers 2016-16, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
  • Handle: RePEc:crs:wpaper:2016-16
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Vasco M. CARVALHO & NIREI Makoto & SAITO Yukiko, 2014. "Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake," Discussion papers 14035, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    2. Vasco M. CARVALHO & NIREI Makoto & SAITO Yukiko, 2014. "Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake," Discussion papers 14035, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. Ruediger Bachmann & Gabriel Ehrlich & Dimitrije Ruzic, 2017. "Firms and Collective Reputation: The Volkswagen Emission Scandal as a Case Study," CESifo Working Paper Series 6805, CESifo Group Munich.
    4. Ernesto Pasten & Raphael Schoenle & Michael Weber, 2017. "Price Rigidities and the Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 23750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Ingvild Almås & Anders Kjelsrud, 2016. "Pro-poor Price Trends and Inequality - The Case of India," CESifo Working Paper Series 5740, CESifo Group Munich.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Comovement; International Trade; Firm-Level Shocks; Large Firms;

    JEL classification:

    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • F61 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Microeconomic Impacts
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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