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The Micro Origins of International Business Cycle Comovement

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  • Julian Di Giovanni

    () (Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona GSE, CREI, CEPR)

  • Andrei A. Levchenko
  • Isabelle Méjean

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of individual firms in international business cycle comovement using data covering the universe of French firm-level value added, bilateral imports and exports, and cross-border ownership over the period 1993-2007. At the micro level, controlling for firm and country effects, trade in goods with a particular foreign country is associated with a significantly higher correlation between a firm and that foreign country. In addition, foreign multinational a liates operating in France are significantly more correlated with the source economy. The impact of direct trade and multinational linkages on comovement at the micro level has significant macro implications. Because internationally connected firms are systematically larger than noninternationally connected firms, the firms directly linked to foreign countries represent only 8% of all firms, but 56% of all value added, and account for 75% of the observed aggregate comovement. Without those linkages the correlation between France and foreign countries would fall by about 0.091, or one-third of the observed average business cycle correlation of 0.29 in our sample of partner countries. These results are evidence of transmission of business cycle shocks through direct trade and multinational ownership linkages at the firm level.

Suggested Citation

  • Julian Di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko & Isabelle Méjean, 2015. "The Micro Origins of International Business Cycle Comovement," Working Papers 2016-16, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
  • Handle: RePEc:crs:wpaper:2016-16
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    Cited by:

    1. Ruediger Bachmann & Gabriel Ehrlich & Ying Fan & Dimitrije Ruzic, 2017. "Firms and Collective Reputation: A Study of the Volkswagen Emissions Scandal," CESifo Working Paper Series 6805, CESifo.
    2. Böhm, Hannes & Schaumburg, Julia & Tonzer, Lena, 2020. "Financial linkages and sectoral business cycle synchronisation: Evidence from Europe," IWH Discussion Papers 2/2020, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    3. Yukiko Saito & Makoto Nirei & Vasco Carvalho, 2014. "Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from Great East Japan Earthquake," 2014 Meeting Papers 595, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Ernesto Pasten & Raphael S. Schoenle & Michael Weber & Michael Weber, 2018. "Price Rigidity and the Origins af Aggregate Fluctuations," CESifo Working Paper Series 7190, CESifo.
    5. Rita Cappariello & Sebastian Franco-Bedoya & Vanessa Gunnella & Gianmarco Ottaviano, 2020. "Rising Protectionism and Global Value Chains: Quantifying the General Equilibrium Effects," CEP Discussion Papers dp1682, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    6. Mincheol Choi & Chang-Yang Lee, 2020. "Power-law distributions of corporate innovative output: evidence from U.S. patent data," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 122(1), pages 519-554, January.
    7. Yukiko Saito & Makoto Nirei & Vasco Carvalho, 2014. "Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from Great East Japan Earthquake," 2014 Meeting Papers 595, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Brancaccio, Emiliano & Giammetti, Raffaele & Lopreite, Milena & Puliga, Michelangelo, 2019. "Monetary policy, crisis and capital centralization in corporate ownership and control networks: A B-Var analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 55-66.
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    15. Esposito, Federico, 2019. "Demand Risk and Diversification through Trade," MPRA Paper 99875, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Comovement; International Trade; Firm-Level Shocks; Large Firms;

    JEL classification:

    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • F61 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Microeconomic Impacts
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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