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The Micro Origins of International Business Cycle Comovement

Author

Listed:
  • Julian di Giovanni

    (Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona GSE, CREI and CEPR)

  • Andrei A. Levchenko

    (University of Michigan, NBER, and CEPR)

  • Isabelle Méjean

    (Ecole Polytechnique and CEPR)

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of individual firms in international business cycle comovement using data covering the universe of French firm-level value added, bilateral imports and exports, and cross-border ownership over the period 1993-2007. At the micro level, controlling for firm and country effects, trade in goods with a particular foreign country is associated with a significantly higher correlation between a firm and that foreign country. In addition, foreign multinational affliates operating in France are significantly more correlated with the source economy. The impact of direct trade and multinational linkages on comovement at the micro level has significant macro implications. Because internationally connected firms are systematically larger than noninternationally connected firms, the firms directly linked to foreign countries represent only 8% of all firms, but 56% of all value added, and account for 75% of the observed aggregate comovement. Without those linkages the correlation between France and foreign countries would fall by about 0.091, or one-third of the observed average business cycle correlation of 0.29 in our sample of partner countries. These results are evidence of transmission of business cycle shocks through direct trade and multinational ownership linkages at the firm level.

Suggested Citation

  • Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko & Isabelle Méjean, 2015. "The Micro Origins of International Business Cycle Comovement," Working Papers 649, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  • Handle: RePEc:mie:wpaper:649
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Ruediger Bachmann & Gabriel Ehrlich & Ying Fan & Dimitrije Ruzic, 2017. "Firms and Collective Reputation: A Study of the Volkswagen Emissions Scandal," CESifo Working Paper Series 6805, CESifo Group Munich.
    2. Ernesto Pasten & Raphael Schoenle & Michael Weber, 2017. "Price Rigidity and the Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 23750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ernesto Pasten & Raphael S. Schoenle & Michael Weber, 2017. "Price Rigidities and the Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," CESifo Working Paper Series 6619, CESifo Group Munich.
    4. Felipe Iachan & Dejanir Silva, 2019. "Risk externalities," 2019 Meeting Papers 338, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Alfaro, Laura & García-Santana, Manuel & Moral-Benito, Enrique, 2018. "On the Direct and Indirect Real Effects of Credit Supply Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 12794, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Anja Kukuvec & Harald Oberhofer, 2018. "The propagation of business sentiment within the European Union," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp257, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    7. Héricourt, Jérôme & Nedoncelle, Clément, 2018. "Multi-destination firms and the impact of exchange-rate risk on trade," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 1178-1193.
    8. Yukiko Saito & Makoto Nirei & Vasco Carvalho, 2014. "Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from Great East Japan Earthquake," 2014 Meeting Papers 595, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Imbs, Jean & Pauwels, Laurent, 2019. "Fundamental Moments," Working Papers BAWP-2019-06, University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics.
    10. Carvalho, Vasco M & Tahbaz-Salehi, Alireza, 2018. "Production Networks: A Primer," CEPR Discussion Papers 13421, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. repec:eee:ecolet:v:163:y:2018:i:c:p:95-97 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Bachmann, R�diger & Ehrlich, Gabriel & Ruzic, Dimitrije, 2017. "Firms and Collective Reputation: the Volkswagen Emissions Scandal as a Case Study," CEPR Discussion Papers 12504, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Emiliano Brancaccio & Raffaele Giammetti & Milena Lopreite & Michelangelo Puliga, 2019. "Monetary Policy, Crisis and Capital Centralization in Corporate Ownership and Control Networks: a B-Var Analysis," LEM Papers Series 2019/28, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    14. Maria Bas & Pamela Bombarda & Sébastien Jean & Gianluca Orefice, 2018. "Firms' Exports, Volatility and Skills: Evidence from France," Working Papers 2018-20, CEPII research center.
    15. Ingvild Almås & Anders Kjelsrud, 2016. "Pro-poor Price Trends and Inequality - The Case of India," CESifo Working Paper Series 5740, CESifo Group Munich.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Comovement; International Trade; Firm-Level Shocks; Large Firms;

    JEL classification:

    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • F61 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Microeconomic Impacts
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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