IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/21885.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Micro Origins of International Business Cycle Comovement

Author

Listed:
  • Julian di Giovanni
  • Andrei A. Levchenko
  • Isabelle Mejean

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of individual firms in international business cycle comovement using data covering the universe of French firm-level value added, bilateral imports and exports, and cross-border ownership over the period 1993-2007. At the micro level, controlling for firm and country effects, trade in goods with a particular foreign country is associated with a significantly higher correlation between a firm and that foreign country. In addition, foreign multinational affiliates operating in France are significantly more correlated with the source economy. The impact of direct trade and multinational linkages on comovement at the micro level has significant macro implications. Because internationally connected firms are systematically larger than non- internationally connected firms, the firms directly linked to foreign countries represent only 8% of all firms, but 56% of all value added, and account for 75% of the observed aggregate comovement. Without those linkages the correlation between France and foreign countries would fall by about 0.091, or one-third of the observed average business cycle correlation of 0.29 in our sample of partner countries. These results are evidence of transmission of business cycle shocks through direct trade and multinational ownership linkages at the firm level.

Suggested Citation

  • Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko & Isabelle Mejean, 2016. "The Micro Origins of International Business Cycle Comovement," NBER Working Papers 21885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21885
    Note: IFM ITI
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w21885.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vasco Carvalho, 2007. "Aggregate fluctuations and the network structure of intersectoral trade," Economics Working Papers 1206, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2010.
    2. Javier Cravino & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2017. "Multinational Firms and International Business Cycle Transmission," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 132(2), pages 921-962.
    3. repec:aea:aejmac:v:9:y:2017:i:4:p:254-80 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Nitya Pandalai Nayar & Aaron Flaaen & Christoph Boehm, 2015. "Input Linkages and the Transmission of Shocks: Firm-Level Evidence from the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake," 2015 Meeting Papers 383, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. repec:bof:bofrdp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201512101464 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. George Alessandria & Horag Choi, 2007. "Do Sunk Costs of Exporting Matter for Net Export Dynamics?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 122(1), pages 289-336.
    7. Burstein, Ariel & Kurz, Christopher & Tesar, Linda, 2008. "Trade, production sharing, and the international transmission of business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 775-795, May.
    8. Calderon, Cesar & Chong, Alberto & Stein, Ernesto, 2007. "Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization: Are developing countries any different?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 2-21, March.
    9. Daron Acemoglu & Ufuk Akcigit & William Kerr, 2016. "Networks and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Exploration," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 273-335.
    10. Blonigen, Bruce A. & Piger, Jeremy & Sly, Nicholas, 2014. "Comovement in GDP trends and cycles among trading partners," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 239-247.
    11. Glenn Magerman & Karolien De Bruyne & Emmanuel Dhyne & Jan Van Hove, 2016. "Heterogeneous Firms and the Micro Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2016-35, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    12. David Baqaee, 2016. "Cascading Failures in Production Networks," 2016 Meeting Papers 402, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Vasco Carvalho & Basile Grassi, 2015. "Large firm dynamics and the business cycle," Economics Working Papers 1481, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    14. Liao, Wei & Santacreu, Ana Maria, 2015. "The trade comovement puzzle and the margins of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 266-288.
    15. Ng, Eric C.Y., 2010. "Production fragmentation and business-cycle comovement," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 1-14, September.
    16. Enghin Atalay, 2017. "How Important Are Sectoral Shocks?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 254-280, October.
    17. Friberg, Richard & Sanctuary, Mark, 2016. "The contribution of firm-level shocks to aggregate fluctuations: The case of Sweden," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 8-11.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ruediger Bachmann & Gabriel Ehrlich & Dimitrije Ruzic, 2017. "Firms and Collective Reputation: The Volkswagen Emission Scandal as a Case Study," CESifo Working Paper Series 6805, CESifo Group Munich.
    2. Ernesto Pasten & Raphael Schoenle & Michael Weber, 2017. "Price Rigidities and the Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 23750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Vasco M. CARVALHO & NIREI Makoto & SAITO Yukiko, 2014. "Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake," Discussion papers 14035, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    4. repec:eee:ecolet:v:163:y:2018:i:c:p:95-97 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Ingvild Almås & Anders Kjelsrud, 2016. "Pro-poor Price Trends and Inequality - The Case of India," CESifo Working Paper Series 5740, CESifo Group Munich.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • F61 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Microeconomic Impacts
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21885. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.