IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cen/wpaper/14-31.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How Important Are Sectoral Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Enghin Atalay

Abstract

I quantify the contribution of sectoral shocks to business cycle fluctuations in aggregate output. I develop a multi-industry general equilibrium model in which each industry employs the material and capital goods produced by other sectors, and then estimate this model using data on U.S. industries sales, output prices, and input choices. Maximum likelihood estimates indicate that industry-specific shocks account for nearly two-thirds of the volatility of aggregate output, substantially larger than previously assessed. Identification of the relative importance of industry-specific shocks comes primarily from data on industries intermediate input purchases, data that earlier estimations of multi-industry models have ignored.

Suggested Citation

  • Enghin Atalay, 2014. "How Important Are Sectoral Shocks," Working Papers 14-31, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    • Handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:14-31
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www2.census.gov/ces/wp/2014/CES-WP-14-31.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2014
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Miles S. Kimball & John G. Fernald & Susanto Basu, 2006. "Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1418-1448, December.
    2. Enghin Atalay, 2014. "Materials Prices And Productivity," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 575-611, June.
    3. Marcel P. Timmer & Mary O’Mahony & Bart van Ark, 2007. "EU KLEMS Growth and Productivity Accounts: An Overview," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 14, pages 71-85, Spring.
    4. Mary O'Mahony & Marcel P. Timmer, 2009. "Output, Input and Productivity Measures at the Industry Level: The EU KLEMS Database," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(538), pages 374-403, June.
    5. Lucia Foster & John Haltiwanger & Chad Syverson, 2016. "The Slow Growth of New Plants: Learning about Demand?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 83(329), pages 91-129, January.
    6. Ellen R. McGrattan & James A. Schmitz, 1999. "Maintenance and repair: too big to ignore," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 23(Fall), pages 2-13.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Molnárová, Zuzana & Reiter, Michael, 2022. "Technology, demand, and productivity: What an industry model tells us about business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    2. Pascal Michaillat & Emmanuel Saez, 2015. "Aggregate Demand, Idle Time, and Unemployment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(2), pages 507-569.
    3. Dariusz Kotlewski, 2022. "Przesłanki za wykorzystaniem rachunkowości wzrostu gospodarczego w badaniu specjalizacji regionalnych," Ekonomista, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, issue 2, pages 235-258.
    4. Elstner, Steffen & Grimme, Christian & Kecht, Valentin & Lehmann, Robert, 2022. "The diffusion of technological progress in ICT," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    5. Christian vom Lehn & Thomas Winberry, 2022. "The Investment Network, Sectoral Comovement, and the Changing U.S. Business Cycle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(1), pages 387-433.
    6. Ethan Ilzetzki, 2024. "Learning by Necessity: Government Demand, Capacity Constraints, and Productivity Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(8), pages 2436-2471, August.
    7. Martin Schneider, 2014. "Labor Productivity Developments in Austria in an International Perspective," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 13-35.
    8. Peter Goodridge & Jonathan Haskel, 2023. "Accounting for the slowdown in UK innovation and productivity," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(359), pages 780-812, July.
    9. Claudia Olivetti & Barbara Petrongolo, 2011. "Gender Gaps Across Countries and Skills: Supply, Demand and the Industry Structure," CEP Discussion Papers dp1093, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    10. Krenz, Astrid & Prettner, Klaus & Strulik, Holger, 2021. "Robots, reshoring, and the lot of low-skilled workers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    11. Huo, Zhen & Levchenko, Andrei A. & Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya, 2023. "Utilization-adjusted TFP across countries: Measurement and implications for international comovement," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    12. Vasco Carvalho & Xavier Gabaix, 2013. "The Great Diversification and Its Undoing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1697-1727, August.
    13. Liao, Hailin & Wang, Bin & Li, Baibing & Weyman-Jones, Tom, 2016. "ICT as a general-purpose technology: The productivity of ICT in the United States revisited," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 10-25.
    14. Vu, Khuong & Hartley, Kris, 2022. "Sources of transport sector labor productivity performance in industrialized countries: Insights from a decomposition analysis," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 204-218.
    15. Fulvio Castellacci, 2010. "Structural Change And The Growth Of Industrial Sectors: Empirical Test Of A Gpt Model," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 56(3), pages 449-482, September.
    16. Goodridge, Peter & Haskel, Jonathan & Edquist, Harald, 2019. "The economic contribution of the “C” in ICT: Evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 867-880.
    17. Fabio Monteforte, 2015. "Structural Transformation, the Push-Pull Hypothesis and the Labour Market," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 15/654, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK, revised 01 Dec 2017.
    18. Van Biesebroeck, Johannes., 2014. "How tight is the link between wages and productivity? : a survey of the literature," ILO Working Papers 994864443402676, International Labour Organization.
    19. Tim Berg, 2012. "Did monetary or technology shocks move euro area stock prices?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 693-722, October.
    20. Georg Graetz, 2019. "Labor Demand in the Past, Present, and Future," European Economy - Discussion Papers 114, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:14-31. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dawn Anderson (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.