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Investment Networks, Sectoral Comovement, and the Changing U.S. Business Cycle

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  • Christian vom Lehn

    (Brigham Young University)

  • Thomas Winberry

    (University of Chicago)

Abstract

We study the role of sectoral comovement in accounting for changes in the U.S. business cycle since the 1980s. We first show that the correlation of value added across sectors has fallen since the 1980s but that the correlation of employment has not. These patterns statistically account for the decline in both GDP volatility and the cyclicality of labor productivity since the 1980s. We then build a model with sectoral linkages in both final and investment goods. The model endogenously matches the observed changes in sectoral comovement patterns, driven by the change in the covariance matrix of sectoral TFP shocks. The structure of the investment network is key to generating this result because it propagates sectoral shocks across sectors more strongly for employment than value added. Our calibrated model accounts for a significant portion of the changes in aggregate fluctuations since the 1980s.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian vom Lehn & Thomas Winberry, 2019. "Investment Networks, Sectoral Comovement, and the Changing U.S. Business Cycle," 2019 Meeting Papers 1158, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed019:1158
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    Cited by:

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    2. Francisco J. Buera & Nicholas Trachter, 2024. "Sectoral Development Multipliers," Working Paper 24-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    3. Sen, A., 2024. "Structural Change at a Disaggregated Level: Sectoral Heterogeneity Matters," Janeway Institute Working Papers 2410, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    4. Molnárová, Zuzana & Reiter, Michael, 2022. "Technology, demand, and productivity: What an industry model tells us about business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    5. Andrew T. Foerster & Andreas Hornstein & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2022. "Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(12), pages 3286-3333.
    6. Iovino, Luigi, 2023. "Comment on “Rigid production networks” by Pellet and Tahbaz-Salehi," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 103-106.
    7. Paul Gaggl & Aspen Gorry & Christian vom Lehn, 2023. "Structural Change in Production Networks and Economic Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 10460, CESifo.
    8. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco, 2024. "Asset prices in a production network," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    9. Baruník, Jozef & Bevilacqua, Mattia & Faff, Robert, 2024. "Dynamic industry uncertainty networks and the business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    10. Alejandro Fernández-Cerezo & Enrique Moral-Benito & Javier Quintana, 2023. "A production network model for the Spanish economy with an application to the impact of NGEU funds," Working Papers 2305, Banco de España.
    11. Ferrante, Francesco & Graves, Sebastian & Iacoviello, Matteo, 2023. "The inflationary effects of sectoral reallocation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(S), pages 64-81.
    12. Maarten Dossche & Andrea Gavazzi & Vivien Lewis, 2023. "Labor Adjustment and Productivity in the OECD," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pages 111-130, January.
    13. Mitra, Aruni, 2024. "The productivity puzzle and the decline of unions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    14. Pellet, Thomas & Tahbaz-Salehi, Alireza, 2023. "Rigid production networks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 86-102.
    15. Joshua Brault & Hashmat Khan, 2021. "Large Firms and the Cyclicality of US Labour Productivity," Carleton Economic Papers 21-02, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 27 May 2021.
    16. Lafond, François & Astudillo-Estévez, Pablo & Bacilieri, Andrea & Borsos, András, 2023. "Firm-level production networks: what do we (really) know?," INET Oxford Working Papers 2023-08, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    17. Zarges, Lara & Lehmann, Robert, 2024. "What Drives Trend German GDP Growth? A Disaggregated Sectoral View," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302409, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. Kohei Matsumura & Tomomi Naka & Nao Sudo, 2023. "Analysis of the Transmission of Carbon Tax using a Multi-Sector Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 23-E-2, Bank of Japan.
    19. Fernández-Cerezo, Alejandro & Moral-Benito, Enrique & Quintana, Javier, 2024. "On the macroeconomic impact of NGEU funds and its propagation through the production network," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    20. Marco Pangallo, 2020. "Synchronization of endogenous business cycles," Papers 2002.06555, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    21. Dragomirescu-Gaina, Catalin & Elia, Leandro, 2021. "Technology shocks and sectoral labour market spill-overs," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    22. Jongchang Ahn & Yirang Jang & Yoonki Rhee, 2022. "A Factor Exploration and Empirical Study on the Influence of the Fourth Industrial Revolution on Employment: Focus on Korean Sample," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-21, August.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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