IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/onb/oenbwp/209.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Value Added and Productivity Linkages Across Countries

Author

Listed:
  • François de Soyres

    (Toulouse School of Economics)

Abstract

What is the relationship between international trade and business cycle synchronization? Using data from OECD countries, I find that trade in intermediate inputs plays a significant role in synchronizing GDP fluctuations across countries while trade in final goods is found insignificant. Motivated by this new fact, I build a model of international trade in intermediates that is able to replicate more than 70% of the empirical trade-comovement slope, making a significant step toward solving the “Trade Comovement Puzzle”. The model relies on two key assumptions: (i) price distortions due to monopolistic competition and (ii) fluctuations in the mass of firms serving each country. The combination of those ingredients creates a link between domestic productivity and foreign shocks through trade linkages. Finally, I provide evidence for the importance of those elements in the link between foreign shocks and domestic GDP and test other predictions of the model.

Suggested Citation

  • François de Soyres, 2016. "Value Added and Productivity Linkages Across Countries," Working Papers 209, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:209
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.oenb.at/dam/jcr:17bca8b9-7f65-461d-95a2-42005bce37a5/Working%20Paper%20209_web.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2005. "International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(3), pages 865-915.
    2. Jean Imbs, 2004. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 723-734, August.
    3. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2008. "Are Shocks to the Terms of Trade Shocks to Productivity?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(4), pages 804-819, October.
    4. Burstein, Ariel & Kurz, Christopher & Tesar, Linda, 2008. "Trade, production sharing, and the international transmission of business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 775-795, May.
    5. Clark, Todd E. & van Wincoop, Eric, 2001. "Borders and business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 59-85, October.
    6. Jean-Noël Barrot & Julien Sauvagnat, 2016. "Input Specificity and the Propagation of Idiosyncratic Shocks in Production Networks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(3), pages 1543-1592.
    7. Gita Gopinath & Brent Neiman, 2014. "Trade Adjustment and Productivity in Large Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(3), pages 793-831, March.
    8. Lukasz A. Drozd & Jaromir B. Nosal, 2012. "Understanding International Prices: Customers as Capital," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 364-395, February.
    9. Ariel Burstein & Javier Cravino, 2015. "Measured Aggregate Gains from International Trade," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 181-218, April.
    10. Lukasz A. Drozd & Sergey Kolbin & Jaromir B. Nosal, 2021. "The Trade-Comovement Puzzle," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 78-120, April.
    11. Andrew B. Bernard & Jonathan Eaton & J. Bradford Jensen & Samuel Kortum, 2003. "Plants and Productivity in International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1268-1290, September.
    12. Kose, M. Ayhan & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2006. "Can the standard international business cycle model explain the relation between trade and comovement?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 267-295, March.
    13. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko & Isabelle Mejean, 2018. "The Micro Origins of International Business-Cycle Comovement," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(1), pages 82-108, January.
    14. Costas Arkolakis & Ananth Ramanarayanan, 2009. "Vertical Specialization and International Business Cycle Synchronization," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 111(4), pages 655-680, December.
    15. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G., 2002. "Aggregate productivity and aggregate technology," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 963-991, June.
    16. Mika Saito, 2004. "Armington elasticities in intermediate inputs trade: a problem in using multilateral trade data," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1097-1117, November.
    17. Liao, Wei & Santacreu, Ana Maria, 2015. "The trade comovement puzzle and the margins of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 266-288.
    18. Feenstra, Robert C. & Jensen, J. Bradford, 2012. "Evaluating estimates of materials offshoring from US manufacturing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 170-173.
    19. Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2008. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(2), pages 441-487.
    20. John Kennan, 2001. "Uniqueness of Positive Fixed Points for Increasing Concave Functions on Rn: An Elementary Result," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(4), pages 893-899, October.
    21. Christoph E. Boehm & Aaron Flaaen & Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, 2019. "Input Linkages and the Transmission of Shocks: Firm-Level Evidence from the 2011 Tōhoku Earthquake," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(1), pages 60-75, March.
    22. Inklaar, Robert & Jong-A-Pin, Richard & de Haan, Jakob, 2008. "Trade and business cycle synchronization in OECD countries--A re-examination," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 646-666, May.
    23. George Alessandria & Horag Choi, 2007. "Do Sunk Costs of Exporting Matter for Net Export Dynamics?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(1), pages 289-336.
    24. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2008. "Are Shocks to the Terms of Trade Shocks to Productivity?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(4), pages 804-819, October.
    25. Thomas Chaney, 2008. "Distorted Gravity: The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1707-1721, September.
    26. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6apm7lruv088iagm4rv2c33jtg is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Calderon, Cesar & Chong, Alberto & Stein, Ernesto, 2007. "Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization: Are developing countries any different?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 2-21, March.
    28. World Bank, 2019. "World Development Report 2019 [Rapport sur le développement dans le monde 2019]," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 30435, April.
    29. Daron Acemoglu & Vasco M. Carvalho & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz‐Salehi, 2012. "The Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(5), pages 1977-2016, September.
    30. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "The Relation between Price and Marginal Cost in U.S. Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 921-947, October.
    31. Robert C. Johnson & Guillermo Noguera, 2017. "A Portrait of Trade in Value-Added over Four Decades," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(5), pages 896-911, December.
    32. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    33. Llosa, Luis-Gonzalo, 2013. "How Do Terms of Trade Affect Productivity? The Role of Monopolistic Output Markets," Working Papers 2013-007, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    34. Robert C. Johnson, 2014. "Trade in Intermediate Inputs and Business Cycle Comovement," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 39-83, October.
    35. Eeckhout, Jan & De loecker, Jan, 2018. "Global Market Power," CEPR Discussion Papers 13009, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    36. Robert C. Feenstra & Philip Luck & Maurice Obstfeld & Katheryn N. Russ, 2018. "In Search of the Armington Elasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(1), pages 135-150, March.
    37. László Halpern & Miklós Koren & Adam Szeidl, 2015. "Imported Inputs and Productivity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(12), pages 3660-3703, December.
    38. Feenstra, Robert C & Markusen, James R, 1994. "Accounting for Growth with New Inputs," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(2), pages 429-447, May.
    39. Fattal Jaef, Roberto N. & Lopez, Jose Ignacio, 2014. "Entry, trade costs, and international business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 224-238.
    40. Krugman, Paul, 1980. "Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 950-959, December.
    41. Seon Tae Kim, 2014. "The Price of Imports and TFP: Application to the Korean Crisis of 1997-98," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(1), pages 39-51, January.
    42. Collins, Norman R & Preston, Lee E, 1969. "Price-Cost Margins and Industry Structure," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 271-286, August.
    43. M. Ayhan Kose & Kei-Mu Yi, 2001. "International Trade and Business Cycles: Is Vertical Specialization the Missing Link?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 371-375, May.
    44. World Bank, 2020. "World Development Report 2020," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 32437, April.
    45. Ng, Eric C.Y., 2010. "Production fragmentation and business-cycle comovement," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 1-14, September.
    46. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-775, August.
    47. Baxter, Marianne & Kouparitsas, Michael A., 2005. "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 113-157, January.
    48. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6apm7lruv088iagm4rv2c33jtg is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. de Soyres, François & Frohm, Erik & Gunnella, Vanessa & Pavlova, Elena, 2021. "Bought, sold and bought again: The impact of complex value chains on export elasticities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. Juan Carlos Conesa & Pau S. Pujolas, 2019. "The Canadian productivity stagnation, 2002–2014," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(2), pages 561-583, May.
    3. Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Maximiliano Appendino & Jelle Barkema & Mr. Diego A. Cerdeiro, 2018. "Measuring Competitiveness in a World of Global Value Chains," IMF Working Papers 2018/229, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Millard, Stephen & Nicolae, Anamaria & Nower, Michael, 2019. "International trade, non-trading firms and their impact on labour productivity," Bank of England working papers 787, Bank of England.
    5. de Soyres, François & Gaillard, Alexandre, 2022. "Global trade and GDP comovement," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    6. Kim, Daisoon, 2021. "Economies of scale and international business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    7. Francois de Soyres & Julien Maire & Guillaume Sublet, 2019. "An Empirical Investigation of Trade Diversion and Global Value Chains," World Bank Publications - Reports 33058, The World Bank Group.
    8. Paul Ilhak Ko, 2020. "Dissecting Trade and Business Cycle Co-movement," 2020 Papers pko1026, Job Market Papers.
    9. Francois de Soyres & Sebastian Franco, 2019. "Inflation Dynamics and Global Value Chains," World Bank Publications - Reports 33059, The World Bank Group.
    10. Miyamoto, Wataru & Nguyen, Thuy Lan, 2019. "International Linkages and the Changing Nature of International Business Cycles," CEI Working Paper Series 2018-16, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    11. Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Jelle Barkema & Mr. Diego A. Cerdeiro, 2019. "The Inflexible Structure of Global Supply Chains," IMF Working Papers 2019/193, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Francois de Soyres & Alexandre Gaillard, 2019. "Trade, Global Value Chains and GDP Co-Movement," World Bank Publications - Reports 33060, The World Bank Group.
    13. William Barcelona & Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Jasper Hoek & Eva Van Leemput, 2022. "What Happens in China Does Not Stay in China," International Finance Discussion Papers 1360, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francois de Soyres, 2016. "Trade and Interdependence in International Networks," 2016 Meeting Papers 157, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. de Soyres, François & Gaillard, Alexandre, 2022. "Global trade and GDP comovement," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    3. Liao, Wei & Santacreu, Ana Maria, 2015. "The trade comovement puzzle and the margins of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 266-288.
    4. Juvenal, Luciana & Santos Monteiro, Paulo, 2017. "Trade and synchronization in a multi-country economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 385-415.
    5. Dainauskas, Justas, 2024. "The network origins of trade comovement," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    6. Bonadio, Barthélémy & Huo, Zhen & Levchenko, Andrei A. & Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya, 2021. "Global supply chains in the pandemic," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    7. Francois de Soyres & Alexandre Gaillard, 2019. "Trade, Global Value Chains and GDP Co-Movement," World Bank Publications - Reports 33060, The World Bank Group.
    8. Costas Arkolakis & Ananth Ramanarayanan, 2009. "Vertical Specialization and International Business Cycle Synchronization," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 111(4), pages 655-680, December.
    9. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko & Isabelle Mejean, 2024. "Foreign Shocks as Granular Fluctuations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(2), pages 391-433.
    10. Avila-Montealegre, Oscar & Mix, Carter, 2024. "Common trade exposure and business cycle comovement," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    11. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko & Isabelle Mejean, 2018. "The Micro Origins of International Business-Cycle Comovement," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(1), pages 82-108, January.
    12. Kim, Daisoon, 2021. "Economies of scale and international business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    13. Yu, Chunjiao & Zhao, Jiaqi & Cheng, Shixiong, 2023. "GVC trade and business cycle synchronization between China and belt-road countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    14. Marco Pangallo, 2020. "Synchronization of endogenous business cycles," Papers 2002.06555, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    15. Cacciatore, Matteo, 2014. "International trade and macroeconomic dynamics with labor market frictions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 17-30.
    16. Pangallo, Marco, 2025. "Synchronization of endogenous business cycles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    17. Zlate, Andrei, 2016. "Offshore production and business cycle dynamics with heterogeneous firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 34-49.
    18. Cacciatore, Matteo & Ghironi, Fabio, 2021. "Trade, unemployment, and monetary policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    19. Gita Gopinath & Brent Neiman, 2014. "Trade Adjustment and Productivity in Large Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(3), pages 793-831, March.
    20. Ramanarayanan, Ananth, 2017. "Imported inputs, irreversibility, and international trade dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 1-18.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Trade; International Business Cycle Comovement; Networks; Input- Output Linkages;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • L22 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Organization and Market Structure

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:209. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Markus Knell (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/oenbbat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.