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Value Added and Productivity Linkages Across Countries

Author

Listed:
  • François de Soyres

    (Toulouse School of Economics)

Abstract

What is the relationship between international trade and business cycle synchronization? Using data from OECD countries, I find that trade in intermediate inputs plays a significant role in synchronizing GDP fluctuations across countries while trade in final goods is found insignificant. Motivated by this new fact, I build a model of international trade in intermediates that is able to replicate more than 70% of the empirical trade-comovement slope, making a significant step toward solving the “Trade Comovement Puzzle”. The model relies on two key assumptions: (i) price distortions due to monopolistic competition and (ii) fluctuations in the mass of firms serving each country. The combination of those ingredients creates a link between domestic productivity and foreign shocks through trade linkages. Finally, I provide evidence for the importance of those elements in the link between foreign shocks and domestic GDP and test other predictions of the model.

Suggested Citation

  • François de Soyres, 2016. "Value Added and Productivity Linkages Across Countries," Working Papers 209, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:209
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Maximiliano Appendino & Jelle Barkema & Mr. Diego A. Cerdeiro, 2018. "Measuring Competitiveness in a World of Global Value Chains," IMF Working Papers 2018/229, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Stephen Millard & Anamaria Nicolae & Michael Nower, 2019. "International trade, non-trading firms and their impact on labour productivity," Bank of England working papers 787, Bank of England.
    3. de Soyres, François & Frohm, Erik & Gunnella, Vanessa & Pavlova, Elena, 2021. "Bought, sold and bought again: The impact of complex value chains on export elasticities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    4. de Soyres, François & Gaillard, Alexandre, 2022. "Global trade and GDP comovement," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    5. Kim, Daisoon, 2021. "Economies of scale and international business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    6. Paul Ilhak Ko, 2020. "Dissecting Trade and Business Cycle Co-movement," 2020 Papers pko1026, Job Market Papers.
    7. De Soyres,Francois Michel Marie Raphael & Maire,Julien Luc Yvon & Sublet,Guillaume, 2019. "An Empirical Investigation of Trade Diversion and Global Value Chains," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9089, The World Bank.
    8. Juan Carlos Conesa & Pau S. Pujolas, 2019. "The Canadian productivity stagnation, 20022014," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 52(2), pages 561-583, May.
    9. Francois de Soyres & Sebastian Franco, 2019. "Inflation Dynamics and Global Value Chains," World Bank Publications - Reports 33059, The World Bank Group.
    10. Miyamoto, Wataru & Nguyen, Thuy Lan, 2019. "International Linkages and the Changing Nature of International Business Cycles," CEI Working Paper Series 2018-16, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    11. Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Jelle Barkema & Mr. Diego A. Cerdeiro, 2019. "The Inflexible Structure of Global Supply Chains," IMF Working Papers 2019/193, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Francois de Soyres & Alexandre Gaillard, 2019. "Trade, Global Value Chains and GDP Co-Movement," World Bank Publications - Reports 33060, The World Bank Group.
    13. William Barcelona & Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Jasper Hoek & Eva Van Leemput, 2022. "What Happens in China Does Not Stay in China," International Finance Discussion Papers 1360, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • L22 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Organization and Market Structure

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