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Value Added and Productivity Linkages Across Countries

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Abstract

What is the relationship between international trade and business cycle synchronization? Using data from 40 countries, we find that GDP comovement is significantly associated with trade in intermediate inputs but not with trade in final goods. Motivated by this new fact, we build a model of international trade that is able to replicate the empirical trade-comovement slope, offering the first quantitative solution for the Trade Comovement Puzzle. The model relies on (i) global value chains, (ii) price distortions due to monopolistic competition and (iii) fluctuations in the mass of firms serving each country. The combination of these ingredients creates a link between domestic measured productivity and foreign shocks through trade linkages, generating a disconnect between technology and measured productivity. Finally, we provide empirical evidence for the importance of these elements in generating a link between foreign shocks and domestic GDP.

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  • Francois de Soyres & Alexandre Gaillard, 2019. "Value Added and Productivity Linkages Across Countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 1266, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1266
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2019.1266
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. de Soyres, François & Frohm, Erik & Gunnella, Vanessa & Pavlova, Elena, 2021. "Bought, sold and bought again: The impact of complex value chains on export elasticities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. Juan Carlos Conesa & Pau S. Pujolas, 2019. "The Canadian productivity stagnation, 2002–2014," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(2), pages 561-583, May.
    3. Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Maximiliano Appendino & Jelle Barkema & Mr. Diego A. Cerdeiro, 2018. "Measuring Competitiveness in a World of Global Value Chains," IMF Working Papers 2018/229, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Millard, Stephen & Nicolae, Anamaria & Nower, Michael, 2019. "International trade, non-trading firms and their impact on labour productivity," Bank of England working papers 787, Bank of England.
    5. de Soyres, François & Gaillard, Alexandre, 2022. "Global trade and GDP comovement," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    6. Kim, Daisoon, 2021. "Economies of scale and international business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    7. Paul Ilhak Ko, 2020. "Dissecting Trade and Business Cycle Co-movement," 2020 Papers pko1026, Job Market Papers.
    8. De Soyres,Francois Michel Marie Raphael & Franco Bedoya,Sebastian, 2019. "Inflation Dynamics and Global Value Chains," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9090, The World Bank.
    9. Miyamoto, Wataru & Nguyen, Thuy Lan, 2019. "International Linkages and the Changing Nature of International Business Cycles," CEI Working Paper Series 2018-16, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    10. Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Jelle Barkema & Mr. Diego A. Cerdeiro, 2019. "The Inflexible Structure of Global Supply Chains," IMF Working Papers 2019/193, International Monetary Fund.
    11. William Barcelona & Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Jasper Hoek & Eva Van Leemput, 2022. "What Happens in China Does Not Stay in China," International Finance Discussion Papers 1360, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International trade; International business cycle comovement; Networks; Input-output linkages; Solow residual;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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