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Global Trade and GDP Co-Movement

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  • de Soyres, Francois
  • Gaillard, Alexandre

Abstract

We revisit the association between trade and GDP comovement for 135 countries from 1970 to 2009. Guided by a simple theory, we introduce two notions of trade linkages: (i) the usual direct bilateral trade index and (ii) new indexes of common exposure to third countries capturing the role of similarity in trade networks. Both measures are economically and statistically associated with GDP correlation, suggesting an additional channel through which GDP fluctuations propagate through trade linkages. Moreover, high income countries become more synchronized when the content of their trade is tilted toward inputs while trade in final goods is key for low income countries. Finally, we present evidence that the density of the international trade network is associated with an amplification of the association between global trade flows and bilateral GDP comovement, leading to a significant evolution of the trade comovement slope over the last two decades.

Suggested Citation

  • de Soyres, Francois & Gaillard, Alexandre, 2020. "Global Trade and GDP Co-Movement," MPRA Paper 100518, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:100518
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    1. Oscar Avila-Montealegre & Carter Mix, 2020. "Common Trade Exposure and Business Cycle Comovement," Borradores de Economia 1149, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Oscar Avila-Montealegre & Carter Mix, 2020. "Common Trade Exposure and Business Cycle Comovement," International Finance Discussion Papers 1306, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Trade; International Business Cycle Comovement; Networks; Input-Output Linkages.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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