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International Comovement in the Global Production Network

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  • Zhen Huo
  • Andrei A. Levchenko
  • Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

Abstract

This paper provides a general framework to study the role of production networks in international GDP comovement. We first derive an additive decomposition of bilateral GDP comovement into components capturing shock transmission and shock correlation. We quantify this decomposition in a parsimonious multi-country, multi-sector dynamic network propagation model, using data for the G7 countries over the period 1978-2007. Our main finding is that while the network transmission of shocks is quantitatively important, it accounts for a minority of observed comovement under the estimated range of structural elasticities. Contemporaneous responses to correlated shocks in the production network are more successful at generating comovement than intertemporal propagation through capital accumulation. Extensions with multiple shocks, nominal rigidities, and international financial integration leave our main result unchanged. A combination of TFP and labor supply shocks is quantitatively successful at reproducing the observed international business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhen Huo & Andrei A. Levchenko & Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, 2019. "International Comovement in the Global Production Network," NBER Working Papers 25978, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25978
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    Cited by:

    1. Jongrim Ha & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar S. Prasad, 2020. "Global macro-financial cycles and spillovers," CAMA Working Papers 2020-12, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Anagnostopoulos, Alexios & Atesagaoglu, Orhan Erem & Faraglia, Elisa & Giannitsarou, Chryssi, 2022. "Cross country stock market comovement: A macro perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 34-48.
    3. Levchenko, Andrei & di Giovanni, Julian & Mejean, Isabelle, 2020. "Foreign Shocks as Granular Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 15458, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Kleinman, Benny & Liu, Ernest & Redding, Stephen, 2020. "International friends and enemies," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 108480, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Jean Imbs & Laurent L. Pauwels, 2020. "High Order Openness," Working Papers 20200047, New York University Abu Dhabi, Department of Social Science, revised Jun 2020.
    6. Peter Eppinger & Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Oliver Krebs & Bohdan Kukharskyy, 2021. "Decoupling Global Value Chains," CESifo Working Paper Series 9079, CESifo.
    7. Haishi Li, 2023. "Multinational Production and Global Shock Propagation during the Great Recession," CESifo Working Paper Series 10349, CESifo.
    8. de Soyres, François & Gaillard, Alexandre, 2022. "Global trade and GDP comovement," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    9. Julian Di Giovanni & Galina Hale, 2022. "Stock Market Spillovers via the Global Production Network: Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(6), pages 3373-3421, December.
    10. Zhen Huo & Andrei A. Levchenko & Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, 2022. "Utilization-Adjusted TFP across Countries: Measurement and Implications for International Comovement," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Paul Ilhak Ko, 2020. "Dissecting Trade and Business Cycle Co-movement," 2020 Papers pko1026, Job Market Papers.
    12. Milan Deskar-Škrbić & Davor Kunovac, 2020. "Twentieth Anniversary of the Euro: Why are Some Countries Still Not Willing to Join? Economists’ View," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(2), pages 242-262, June.
    13. Bonadio, Barthélémy & Huo, Zhen & Levchenko, Andrei A. & Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya, 2021. "Global supply chains in the pandemic," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    14. Yuzuka Kashiwagi & Yasuyuki Todo & Petr Matous, 2021. "Propagation of economic shocks through global supply chains—Evidence from Hurricane Sandy," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(5), pages 1186-1220, November.
    15. Daoju Peng & Kang Shi & Juanyi Xu, 2020. "Global Value Chain and Business Cycle Comovement: Does Distance Matter?," HKUST CEP Working Papers Series 202005, HKUST Center for Economic Policy.

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    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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