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Global Macro-Financial Cycles and Spillovers

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  • Jongrim Ha
  • M. Ayhan Kose
  • Christopher Otrok
  • Eswar S. Prasad

Abstract

We develop a new dynamic factor model that allows us to jointly characterize global macroeconomic and financial cycles and the spillovers between them. The model decomposes macroeconomic cycles into the part driven by global and country-specific macro factors and the part driven by spillovers from financial variables. We consider cycles in macroeconomic aggregates (output, consumption, and investment) and financial variables (equity and house prices, and interest rates). We find that the global macro factor plays a major role in explaining G-7 business cycles, but there are also spillovers from equity and house price shocks onto macroeconomic aggregates. These spillovers operate mainly through the global macro factor rather than the country-specific macro factors (i.e., these spillovers affect business cycles in all G-7 economies) and are stronger in the period leading up to and following the global financial crisis. We find little evidence of spillovers from macroeconomic cycles to financial cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Jongrim Ha & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar S. Prasad, 2020. "Global Macro-Financial Cycles and Spillovers," NBER Working Papers 26798, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26798
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    2. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jančoková, Martina, 2020. "Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    3. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo, 2021. "Global Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 8885, CESifo.
    4. Houssa, Romain & Mohimont, Jolan & Otrok, Christopher, 2023. "Commodity exports, financial frictions, and international spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    5. Rebucci, Alessandro & Acalin, Julien, 2020. "Global Business and Financial Cycles: A Tale of Two Capital Account Regimes," CEPR Discussion Papers 15190, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Xin Tian & Jan Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2022. "Alternative Measures for the Global Financial Cycle: Do They Make a Difference?," CESifo Working Paper Series 9730, CESifo.
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    8. Misha van Beek, 2020. "Consistent Calibration of Economic Scenario Generators: The Case for Conditional Simulation," Papers 2004.09042, arXiv.org.
    9. Herculano, Miguel C. & Lütkebohmert, Eva, 2023. "Investor sentiment and global economic conditions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 134-152.
    10. Xin Tian & Jan Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2022. "Alternative Measures for the Global Financial Cycle: Do They Make a Difference?," CESifo Working Paper Series 9730, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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