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"Risk Spillovers between Global Corporations and Latin American Sovereigns: Global Factors Matter"

Author

Listed:
  • Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez

    (Escuela Internacional de Ciencias Económicas y Administrativas, Universidad de La Sabana, Chía, Colombia.)

  • Jorge M. Uribe

    (Department of Economics and Finance, Universitat Oberta de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain. Riskcenter, Universitat de Barcelona.)

  • Oscar M. Valencia

    (Fiscal Affair Department, Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, DC, US.)

Abstract

We study volatility spillovers between the corporate sector’s and Latin American countries’ CDS. Daily data from October 14 2006 to August 23 2021 are employed. Spillovers are computed both for the raw data and for filtered series which factor out the effect of global common factors on the various CDS series. Results indicate that most spillovers occur within groups, i.e., within countries and within global corporations. However, considerable spillovers are also registered from LAC sovereigns to corporations and vice versa. Interesting differences are encountered between filtered and unfiltered data. Specifically, spillovers from countries to corporations are overestimated (in about 4.3 percentage points) and spillovers from corporations to sovereigns are underestimated (in about 5.8 percentage points) when unfiltered data is used. This result calls for a revision of results obtained from studies that do not consider the role of global common factors on system spillovers. Like in most related studies, spillovers show considerable time-variation, being larger during times of financial or economic distress. When looking at total system spillovers over time, those corresponding to unfiltered series are always larger than those corresponding to filtered series. The difference between the two time-series is largest in times of distress, indicating that global factors play a major role in times of crises. Similar conclusions are derived from network analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Jorge M. Uribe & Oscar M. Valencia, 2021. ""Risk Spillovers between Global Corporations and Latin American Sovereigns: Global Factors Matter"," IREA Working Papers 202118, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Dec 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:ira:wpaper:202118
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Helena Chuliá & Sabuhi Khalili & Jorge M. Uribe, 2024. "Monitoring time-varying systemic risk in sovereign debt and currency markets with generative AI," IREA Working Papers 202402, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2024.
    3. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Uribe, Jorge M. & Valencia, Oscar M., 2025. "Asymmetric sovereign risk: Implications for climate change preparation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    4. Zhizhen Chen & Guifen Shi & Boyang Sun, 2024. "Cross-border spillovers in G20 sovereign CDS markets: cluster analysis based on K-means machine learning algorithm and TVP–VAR models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(6), pages 2463-2502, December.

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    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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