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Global interest rates, US dollar, and global risk

Author

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  • Yildirim, Zekeriya
  • Erdal, Fuat

Abstract

How do world interest rate shocks propagate globally, and what role does the US dollar play in transmitting these shocks and amplifying them through its interaction with global financial risk? This study addresses this question using three classes of VAR models: linear, threshold, and time-varying parameter VARs. We find that world rate shocks have significant adverse effects and that the dollar serves as a key transmission channel. Specifically, these shocks heighten global financial risk and uncertainty, trigger US dollar appreciation, depress global trade, and ultimately contract global GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Yildirim, Zekeriya & Erdal, Fuat, 2026. "Global interest rates, US dollar, and global risk," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:83:y:2026:i:c:s1062940825002153
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2025.102575
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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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