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Deterministic debt cycles in open economies with flow collateral constraints

Author

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  • Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie
  • Uribe, Martín

Abstract

This paper establishes the existence of endogenous cycles in infinite-horizon open economy models with a flow collateral constraint. It shows that for plausible parameter configurations, the economy has a unique equilibrium exhibiting deterministic cycles in which periods of debt growth are followed by periods of debt deleveraging. In particular, three-period cycles exist, which implies by the Li-Yorke Theorem the presence of cycles of any periodicity and chaos. The paper also shows that deterministic cycles are absent in the Ramsey optimal allocation providing a justification for macroprudential policies even in the absence of uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2021. "Deterministic debt cycles in open economies with flow collateral constraints," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:192:y:2021:i:c:s0022053121000120
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2021.105195
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    Cited by:

    1. Acosta-Henao, Miguel & Alfaro, Laura & Fernández, Andrés, 2025. "Sticky capital controls," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    2. Damián Pierri & Kevin Reffett, 2021. "Memory, Multiple Equilibria and Emerging Market Crises," Working Papers 154, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Aug 2021.
    3. Ha, Jongrim & Kose, M. Ayhan & Otrok, Christopher & Prasad, Eswar S., 2025. "Global macro-financial cycles and spillovers," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    4. Carlos Esteban Posada Posada, 2020. "Crecimiento y ciclos de la economía colombiana (2005 – 2019)," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 18255, Universidad EAFIT.
    5. Takao Asano & Akihisa Shibata & Masanori Yokoo, 2024. "Technology choice, externalities in production, and a chaotic middle-income trap," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 29-56, January.
    6. Parimoo, Suneil, 2024. "Cycles and self-fulfilling crises in open economies with stock collateral constraints under impatience," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    7. Friedrich Lucke, 2022. "The Great Moderation and the Financial Cycle," Working Papers REM 2022/0238, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    8. Kim, Eungsik & Li, Jiayi, 2025. "Endogenous business cycles in overlapping generations models with time inconsistency," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F38 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies

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