IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ake/iiepdt/202162.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Memory, Multiple Equilibria And Emerging Market Crises

Author

Listed:
  • Damián Pierri

    (Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política de Buenos Aires - UBA - CONICET)

Abstract

We present a new Generalized Markov Equilibrium (GME) approach to studying sudden stops and financial crises in emerging countries in the canonical small open economy model with equilib-rium price-dependent collateral constraints. Our approach to characterizing and computing stochastic equilibrium dynamics is global, encompasses recursive equilibrium as a special case, yet allows for a much more flexible approach to modeling memory in such models that are known to have multiple equilibrium. We prove the existence of ergodic GME selections from the set of sequential competitive equilibrium, and show that at the same time ergodic GME selectors can replicate all the observed phases of the macro crises associated with a sudden stop (boom, collapse, spiralized recession, recov-ery) while still being able to capture the long-run stylized behavior of the data. We also compute stochastic equilibrium dynamics associated with stationary and nonstationary GME selections, and we find that: a) the ergodic GME selectors generate stochastic dynamics that are less financially constrained with respect to stationary non-ergodic paths; and, b) non-stationary GME selections ex-hibit a great range of fluctuations in macroeconomic aggregates compared to the stationary selections. From a theoretical perspective, we prove the existence of both sequential competitive equilibrium and (minimal state space) recursive equilibrium, as well as provide a complete theory of robust recursive equilibrium comparative statics in deep parameters. Consistent with recent results in the literature, relative to the set of recursive equilibrium, we find 2 stationary equilibrium: one with high/over borrowing, the other with low/under borrowing. These equilibrium are extremal and “self-fulfilling” under rational expectations. The selection among these equilibria depend on observable variables and not on sunspots.

Suggested Citation

  • Damián Pierri, 2021. "Memory, Multiple Equilibria And Emerging Market Crises," Documentos de trabajo del Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política (IIEP-BAIRES) 2021-62, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política (IIEP-BAIRES).
  • Handle: RePEc:ake:iiepdt:202162
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://iiep-baires.econ.uba.ar/uploads/publicaciones/532/archivos/1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Javier Bianchi, 2011. "Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3400-3426, December.
    2. Morand, Olivier F. & Reffett, Kevin L., 2003. "Existence and uniqueness of equilibrium in nonoptimal unbounded infinite horizon economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1351-1373, September.
    3. Gianluca Benigno & Huigang Chen & Christopher Otrok & Alessandro Rebucci & Eric R. Young, 2011. "Revisiting Overborrowing and its Policy Implications," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Diego Saravia (ed.), Monetary Policy under Financial Turbulence, edition 1, volume 16, chapter 6, pages 145-184 Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Constantinides, George M & Duffie, Darrell, 1996. "Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Consumers," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 219-240, April.
    5. Enrique G. Mendoza & Eugenio Rojas, 2019. "Positive and Normative Implications of Liability Dollarization for Sudden Stops Models of Macroprudential Policy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 174-214, March.
    6. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 2018. "What Happened: Financial Factors in the Great Recession," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 3-30, Summer.
    7. Mertens, J.-F. & Parthasarathy, T., 1987. "Equilibria for discounted stochastic games," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 1987050, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    8. Javier Bianchi & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2010. "Overborrowing, financial crises and ‘macro-prudential’ taxes," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Oct.
    9. Duffie, Darrell, et al, 1994. "Stationary Markov Equilibria," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 745-781, July.
    10. Christopher Otrok & Andrew Foerster & Alessandro Rebucci & Gianluca Benigno, 2017. "Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime Switching Approach," 2017 Meeting Papers 572, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Benigno, Gianluca & Chen, Huigang & Otrok, Christopher & Rebucci, Alessandro & Young, Eric R., 2016. "Optimal capital controls and real exchange rate policies: A pecuniary externality perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 147-165.
    12. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    13. Datta, Manjira & Mirman, Leonard J. & Reffett, Kevin L., 2002. "Existence and Uniqueness of Equilibrium in Distorted Dynamic Economies with Capital and Labor," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 377-410, April.
    14. Rincón-Zapatero, Juan Pablo & Santos, Manuel S., 2009. "Differentiability of the value function without interiority assumptions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(5), pages 1948-1964, September.
    15. Arce, Fernando & Bengui, Julien & Bianchi, Javier, 2019. "A Macroprudential Theory of Foreign Reserve Accumulation," CEPR Discussion Papers 13952, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Kubler, Felix & Schmedders, Karl, 2002. "Recursive Equilibria In Economies With Incomplete Markets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 284-306, April.
    17. Kydland, Finn E. & Prescott, Edward C., 1980. "Dynamic optimal taxation, rational expectations and optimal control," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 79-91, May.
    18. Leonard Mirman & Olivier Morand & Kevin Reffett, "undated". "A Qualitative Theory of Markovian Equilibrium in Infinite Horizon Economies with Capital," Working Papers 2133376, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University.
    19. Benigno, Gianluca & Chen, Huigang & Otrok, Christopher & Rebucci, Alessandro & Young, Eric R., 2013. "Financial crises and macro-prudential policies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 453-470.
    20. Lutz, Flora & Zessner-Spitzenberg, Leopold, 2020. "Sudden Stops and Reserve Accumulation in the Presence of International Liquidity Risk," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224520, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    21. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2017. "Adjustment to small, large, and sunspot shocks in open economies with stock collateral constraints," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 35(82), pages 2-9, April.
    22. , H. B., 2013. "Ergodic Markov equilibrium with incomplete markets and short sales," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(1), January.
    23. Costas Azariadis & Leo Kaas & Yi Wen, 2016. "Self-Fulfilling Credit Cycles," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 83(4), pages 1364-1405.
    24. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2021. "Deterministic debt cycles in open economies with flow collateral constraints," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    25. Javier Bianchi & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2018. "Optimal Time-Consistent Macroprudential Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 588-634.
    26. Javier Bianchi & Chenxin Liu & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2016. "Fundamentals News, Global Liquidity, and Macroprudential Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Zhigang Feng & Jianjun Miao & Adrian Peralta‐Alva & Manuel S. Santos, 2014. "Numerical Simulation Of Nonoptimal Dynamic Equilibrium Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55(1), pages 83-110, February.
    28. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Smith, Katherine A., 2006. "Quantitative implications of a debt-deflation theory of Sudden Stops and asset prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 82-114, September.
    29. Mirman, Leonard J. & Morand, Olivier F. & Reffett, Kevin L., 2008. "A qualitative approach to Markovian equilibrium in infinite horizon economies with capital," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 75-98, March.
    30. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & John Moore, 2019. "Liquidity, Business Cycles, and Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(6), pages 2926-2966.
    31. Benjamin Moll, 2014. "Productivity Losses from Financial Frictions: Can Self-Financing Undo Capital Misallocation?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(10), pages 3186-3221, October.
    32. Jerome Adda & Russell W. Cooper, 2003. "Dynamic Economics: Quantitative Methods and Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262012014.
    33. Gianluca Benigno & Huigang Chen & Christopher Otrok & Alessandro Rebucci & Eric R. Young, 2011. "Revisiting Overborrowing and its Policy Implications," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Diego Saravia (ed.),Monetary Policy under Financial Turbulence, edition 1, volume 16, chapter 6, pages 145-184, Central Bank of Chile.
    34. Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent, 2004. "Recursive Macroeconomic Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 026212274x.
    35. Daron Acemoglu & Martin Kaae Jensen, 2015. "Robust Comparative Statics in Large Dynamic Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 123(3), pages 587-640.
    36. Damián Pierri & Julián Martínez, 2020. "Accuracy in Recursive Minimal State Space Methods," Working Papers 147, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Aug 2020.
    37. Coleman, Wilbur John, II, 1991. "Equilibrium in a Production Economy with an Income Tax," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(4), pages 1091-1104, July.
    38. Futia, Carl A, 1982. "Invariant Distributions and the Limiting Behavior of Markovian Economic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(2), pages 377-408, March.
    39. Seoane, Hernán D. & Yurdagul, Emircan, 2019. "Trend shocks and sudden stops," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    40. Abreu, Dilip & Pearce, David & Stacchetti, Ennio, 1986. "Optimal cartel equilibria with imperfect monitoring," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 251-269, June.
    41. Felix Kubler & Karl Schmedders, 2003. "Stationary Equilibria in Asset-Pricing Models with Incomplete Markets and Collateral," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1767-1793, November.
    42. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2016. "Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity, Currency Pegs, and Involuntary Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(5), pages 1466-1514.
    43. Zhigang Feng & Jianjun Miao & Adrian Peralta‐Alva & Manuel S. Santos, 2014. "Numerical Simulation Of Nonoptimal Dynamic Equilibrium Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55, pages 83-110, February.
    44. Michael B Devereux & Changhua Yu, 2020. "International Financial Integration and Crisis Contagion," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 1174-1212.
    45. Reffett, Kevin L., 1995. "Arbitrage pricing and the stochastic inflation tax in a multisector monetary economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 569-597, April.
    46. Javier Bianchi & Enrique Mendoza, 2020. "A Fisherian Approach to Financial Crises: Lessons from the Sudden Stops Literature," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 254-283, August.
    47. Grandmont, Jean-Michel & Hildenbrand, Werner, 1974. "Stochastic processes of temporary equilibria," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 247-277, December.
    48. Blume, Lawrence E., 1982. "New techniques for the study of stochastic equilibrium processes," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1-2), pages 61-70, January.
    49. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie, 1997. "Comparing Four Models of Aggregate Fluctuations due to Self-Fulfilling Expectations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 96-147, January.
    50. Manuel S. Santos & Adrian Peralta-Alva, 2005. "Accuracy of Simulations for Stochastic Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(6), pages 1939-1976, November.
    51. Li, Huiyu & Stachurski, John, 2014. "Solving the income fluctuation problem with unbounded rewards," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 353-365.
    52. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September.
    53. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2010. "Sudden Stops, Financial Crises, and Leverage," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 1941-1966, December.
    54. Enrique Mendoza & Sergio Villalvazo, 2020. "FiPIt: A Simple, Fast Global Method for Solving Models with Two Endogenous States & Occasionally Binding Constraints," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 81-102, July.
    55. Cao, Dan, 2020. "Recursive equilibrium in Krusell and Smith (1998)," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    56. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2002. "Credit, Prices, and Crashes: Business Cycles with a Sudden Stop," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 335-392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    57. Manjira Datta & Kevin Reffett & Łukasz Woźny, 2018. "Comparing recursive equilibrium in economies with dynamic complementarities and indeterminacy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 66(3), pages 593-626, October.
    58. Mas-Colell, Andreu & Zame, William R., 1996. "The existence of security market equilibrium with a non-atomic state space," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 63-84.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pierri, Damian Rene & Montes Rojas, Gabriel & Mira, José, 2020. "Persistent current account deficits and balance of payments crises," UC3M Working papers. Economics 34239, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Javier Bianchi & Enrique Mendoza, 2020. "A Fisherian Approach to Financial Crises: Lessons from the Sudden Stops Literature," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 254-283, August.
    2. Jaime McGovern & Olivier Morand & Kevin Reffett, 2013. "Computing minimal state space recursive equilibrium in OLG models with stochastic production," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 54(3), pages 623-674, November.
    3. Jeanne, Olivier & Korinek, Anton, 2019. "Managing credit booms and busts: A Pigouvian taxation approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 2-17.
    4. Manuel S. Santos & Adrian Peralta-Alva, 2012. "Analysis of Numerical Errors," Working Papers 2012-6, University of Miami, Department of Economics.
    5. Zhigang Feng & Jianjun Miao & Adrian Peralta‐Alva & Manuel S. Santos, 2014. "Numerical Simulation Of Nonoptimal Dynamic Equilibrium Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55(1), pages 83-110, February.
    6. Damián Pierri & Julián Martínez, 2020. "Accuracy in Recursive Minimal State Space Methods," Working Papers 147, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Aug 2020.
    7. Nadav Ben Zeev, 2019. "Asymmetric Business Cycles In Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers 1909, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    8. Anton Korinek & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2013. "From Sudden Stops to Fisherian Deflation: Quantitative Theory and Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 19362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Manjira Datta & Kevin Reffett & Łukasz Woźny, 2018. "Comparing recursive equilibrium in economies with dynamic complementarities and indeterminacy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 66(3), pages 593-626, October.
    10. Devereux, Michael B. & Young, Eric R. & Yu, Changhua, 2019. "Capital controls and monetary policy in sudden-stop economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 52-74.
    11. Korinek, Anton & Sandri, Damiano, 2016. "Capital controls or macroprudential regulation?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(S1), pages 27-42.
    12. Christopher Otrok & Andrew Foerster & Alessandro Rebucci & Gianluca Benigno, 2017. "Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime Switching Approach," 2017 Meeting Papers 572, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Enrique G. Mendoza & Eugenio Rojas, 2019. "Positive and Normative Implications of Liability Dollarization for Sudden Stops Models of Macroprudential Policy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 174-214, March.
    14. Benigno, Gianluca & Chen, Huigang & Otrok, Christopher & Rebucci, Alessandro & Young, Eric R., 2013. "Financial crises and macro-prudential policies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 453-470.
    15. Ricardo M. Reyes-Heroles & Gabriel Tenorio, 2017. "Managing Capital Flows in the Presence of External Risks," International Finance Discussion Papers 1213, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Javier Bianchi & Guido Lorenzoni, 2021. "The Prudential Use of Capital Controls and Foreign Currency Reserves," Working Papers 787, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    17. Alessandro Rebucci & Chang Ma, 2019. "Capital Controls: A Survey of the New Literature," NBER Working Papers 26558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Akıncı, Özge & Chahrour, Ryan, 2018. "Good news is bad news: Leverage cycles and sudden stops," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 362-375.
    19. Felipe Benguria & Felipe Saffie & Hidehiko Matsumoto, 2019. "Productivity and Trade Dynamics in Sudden Stops," 2019 Meeting Papers 1378, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Norring, Anni, 2022. "Taming the tides of capital: Review of capital controls and macroprudential policy in emerging economies," BoF Economics Review 1/2022, Bank of Finland.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Crises; Sudden Stops; Small Open Economies; Ergodicity; Recursive Equilibrium; Generalized Markov Equilibria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • D52 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Incomplete Markets
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ake:iiepdt:202162. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ieeubar.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Carolina Conde (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ieeubar.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.