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International Financial Integration and Crisis Contagion

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  • Michael B Devereux
  • Changhua Yu

Abstract

International financial integration helps to diversify risk but also may spread crises across countries. We provide a quantitative analysis of this trade-off in a two-country general equilibrium model with collateral-constrained borrowing using a global solution method. Borrowing constraints bind occasionally, depending upon the state of the economy and levels of inherited debt. We examine different degrees of international financial integration, moving from financial autarky, to bond and equity market integration. Financial integration leads to a significant increase in global leverage, substantially escalates the probability of crises for any one country, and dramatically increases the degree of "contagion" across countries. Outside of crises, the impact of financial integration on macroeconomic aggregates is relatively small. But the impact of a crisis with integrated international financial markets is much less severe than that under financial market autarky. Thus, a trade-off emerges between the probability of crises and the severity of crises. Using a large cross-country database of financial crises in developing and developed economies over a forty-year period, we find evidence in support of the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael B Devereux & Changhua Yu, 2020. "International Financial Integration and Crisis Contagion," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 1174-1212.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:87:y:2020:i:3:p:1174-1212.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/restud/rdz054
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. A Consolidated-by-Nationality Approach to Irish Foreign Exposure
      by The Irish Economy in The Irish Economy on 2021-12-07 13:45:38

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Scheubel, Beatrice & Stracca, Livio & Tille, Cédric, 2019. "The global financial cycle and capital flow episodes: a wobbly link?," Working Paper Series 2337, European Central Bank.
    2. Pierri, Damian Rene & Reffett, Kevin, 2021. "Memory, multiple equilibria and emerging market crises," UC3M Working papers. Economics 32871, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    3. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Imbs, Jean & Saleheen, Jumana, 2019. "Finance and synchronization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 74-87.
    4. Anne Epaulard & Aude Pommeret, 2016. "Financial Integration, Growth and Volatility," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 330-357, August.
    5. Hao Jin & Hewei Shen, 2020. "Foreign Asset Accumulation among Emerging Market Economies: a Case for Coordination," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 35, pages 54-73, January.
    6. Beck, Thorsten & Chen, Tao & Lin, Chen & Song, Frank M., 2016. "Financial innovation: The bright and the dark sides," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 28-51.
    7. Can Sever, 2016. "Contagion: Recent Models in International Finance Literature," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 5(2), pages 59-66, June.
    8. Nina Karnaukh & Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2015. "Understanding FX Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(11), pages 3073-3108.
    9. Patel, Ritesh & Goodell, John W. & Oriani, Marco Ercole & Paltrinieri, Andrea & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2022. "A bibliometric review of financial market integration literature," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    10. Goetz, Martin R. & Gozzi, Juan Carlos, 2022. "Financial integration and the co-movement of economic activity: Evidence from U.S. states," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    11. Hao Jin & Hewei Shen, 2020. "Foreign Asset Accumulation among Emerging Market Economies: a Case for Coordination," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 35, pages 54-73, January.
    12. Tang, Aidi & Yao, Wen, 2022. "The effects of financial integration during crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    13. Michael B. Devereux & Changhua Yu, 2017. "Exchange Rate Adjustment in Financial Crises," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(3), pages 528-562, August.
    14. Yuko Imura & Julia Thomas, 2015. "International Transmission of Credit Shocks in an Equilibrium Model with Production Heterogeneity," Staff Working Papers 15-19, Bank of Canada.
    15. Devereux, Michael B. & Young, Eric R. & Yu, Changhua, 2019. "Capital controls and monetary policy in sudden-stop economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 52-74.
    16. Sanchez Pacheco, André, 2022. "A consolidated-by-nationality approach to Irish foreign exposure," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 235-247.
    17. Yu, Changhua, 2015. "Evaluating international financial integration in a center-periphery economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 129-144.
    18. Martin R. Goetz & Juan Carlos Gozzi, 2020. "Financial Integration and the Co-Movement of Economic Activity: Evidence from U.S. States," International Finance Discussion Papers 1305, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Ma, Yong & Jiang, Yiqing & Yao, Chi, 2022. "Trade openness, financial openness, and macroeconomic volatility," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(1).
    20. P. K. Mishra & S. K. Mishra, 2022. "Is the Impact of COVID-19 Significant in Determining Equity Market Integration? Insights from BRICS Economies," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 14(2), pages 137-162, May.
    21. Ong, Kian, 2020. "Net foreign assets dynamics: the persistence and sources of shocks to net foreign assets in 12 EU countries," MPRA Paper 100929, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Jiang, Hai & Tang, Shenfeng & Li, Lifang & Xu, Fangming & Di, Qian, 2022. "Re-examining the Contagion Channels of Global Financial Crises: Evidence from the Twelve Years since the US Subprime Crisis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    23. Massaporn Cheuathonghua & Chaiyuth Padungsaksawasdi & Pattana Boonchoo & Jittima Tongurai, 2019. "Extreme spillovers of VIX fear index to international equity markets," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 33(1), pages 1-38, March.
    24. Devereux, Michael B. & Saito, Makoto & Yu, Changhua, 2020. "International capital flows, portfolio composition, and the stability of external imbalances," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International financial integration; Occasionally binding constraints; Financial contagion; Leverage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D52 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Incomplete Markets
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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