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Analysis of Numerical Errors

Listed author(s):
  • Manuel S. Santos

    (Department of Economics, University of Miami)

  • Adrian Peralta-Alva

    (Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis)

This paper provides a general framework for the quantitative analysis of stochastic dynamic models. We review convergence properties of some numerical algorithms and available methods to bound approximation errors. We then address convergence and accuracy properties of the simulated moments. Our purpose is to provide an asymptotic theory for the computation, simulation-based estimation, and testing of dynamic economies. The theoretical analysis is complemented with several illustrative examples. We study both optimal and non-optimal economies. Optimal economies generate smooth laws of motion defining Markov equilibria, and can be approximated by recursive methods with contractive properties. Non-optimal economies, however, lack existence of continuous Markov equilibria, and need to be computed by other algorithms with weaker approximation properties.

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File URL: http://bus.miami.edu/_assets/files/repec/WP2012-06.pdf
File Function: First version, 2012
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University of Miami, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2012-6.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: 08 2012
Publication status: Forthcoming: Under Review
Handle: RePEc:mia:wpaper:2012-6
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P.O. Box 248126, Coral Gables, FL 33124-6550

Phone: (305) 284-5540
Fax: (305) 284-2985
Web page: http://www.bus.miami.edu/faculty-and-research/academic-departments/economics/index.html

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  1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
  2. Schenk-Hoppe, Klaus Reiner & Schmalfu[ss], Bjorn, 2001. "Random fixed points in a stochastic Solow growth model," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 19-30, September.
  3. Lee, Bong-Soo & Ingram, Beth Fisher, 1991. "Simulation estimation of time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2-3), pages 197-205, February.
  4. Datta, Manjira & Mirman, Leonard J. & Reffett, Kevin L., 2002. "Existence and Uniqueness of Equilibrium in Distorted Dynamic Economies with Capital and Labor," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 377-410, April.
  5. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1993. "Simulated Moments Estimation of Markov Models of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 929-952, July.
  6. Kubler, Felix & Schmedders, Karl, 2002. "Recursive Equilibria In Economies With Incomplete Markets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(02), pages 284-306, April.
  7. Greenwood Jeremy & Huffman Gregory W., 1995. "On the Existence of Nonoptimal Equilibria in Dynamic Stochastic Economies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 611-623, April.
  8. Manuel S. Santos & Michael Woodford, 1997. "Rational Asset Pricing Bubbles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(1), pages 19-58, January.
  9. Kehoe, Timothy J & Levine, David K, 2001. "Liquidity Constrained Markets versus Debt Constrained Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 575-598, May.
  10. Zhigang Feng & Jianjun Miao & Adrian Peralta‐Alva & Manuel S. Santos, 2014. "Numerical Simulation Of Nonoptimal Dynamic Equilibrium Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55, pages 83-110, 02.
  11. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Manuel S. Santos, 2006. "Convergence Properties of the Likelihood of Computed Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(1), pages 93-119, 01.
  12. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Fisher, Jonas D. M., 2000. "Algorithms for solving dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1179-1232, July.
  13. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1985. "On Endogenous Competitive Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(5), pages 995-1045, September.
  14. Futia, Carl A, 1982. "Invariant Distributions and the Limiting Behavior of Markovian Economic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(2), pages 377-408, March.
  15. Richard Ericson & Ariel Pakes, 1995. "Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: A Framework for Empirical Work," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82.
  16. Manuel S. Santos & Adrian Peralta-Alva, 2005. "Accuracy of Simulations for Stochastic Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(6), pages 1939-1976, November.
  17. Ellison, Glenn & Fudenberg, Drew, 1993. "Rules of Thumb for Social Learning," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(4), pages 612-643, August.
  18. Manuel S. Santos & Jesus Vigo-Aguiar, 1998. "Analysis of a Numerical Dynamic Programming Algorithm Applied to Economic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(2), pages 409-426, March.
  19. Hellwig, Martin F., 1983. "A note on the implementation of rational expectations equilibria," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 1-8.
  20. Blume, Lawrence E., 1982. "New techniques for the study of stochastic equilibrium processes," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1-2), pages 61-70, January.
  21. Christopher Phelan & Ennio Stacchetti, 2001. "Sequential Equilibria in a Ramsey Tax Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1491-1518, November.
  22. Carl Futia, 2010. "Invariant Distributions and the Limiting Behavior of Markovian Economic Models," Levine's Working Paper Archive 497, David K. Levine.
  23. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2004. "Solving dynamic general equilibrium models using a second-order approximation to the policy function," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 755-775, January.
  24. Wouter J. Den Haan & Albert Marcet, 1994. "Accuracy in Simulations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(1), pages 3-17.
  25. Aruoba, S. Boragan & Fernandez-Villaverde, Jesus & Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F., 2006. "Comparing solution methods for dynamic equilibrium economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2477-2508, December.
  26. Hopenhayn, Hugo A & Prescott, Edward C, 1992. "Stochastic Monotonicity and Stationary Distributions for Dynamic Economies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(6), pages 1387-1406, November.
  27. Kydland, Finn E. & Prescott, Edward C., 1980. "Dynamic optimal taxation, rational expectations and optimal control," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 79-91, May.
  28. Karl Schmedders, Felix Kubler, 2001. "Asset Pricing in Models with incomplete markets and default," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 58, Society for Computational Economics.
  29. Benhabib, Jess & Day, Richard H., 1982. "A characterization of erratic dynamics in, the overlapping generations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 37-55, November.
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  31. Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith & Jr., 1998. "Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 867-896, October.
  32. Felix Kubler & Karl Schmedders, 2003. "Stationary Equilibria in Asset-Pricing Models with Incomplete Markets and Collateral," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1767-1793, November.
  33. Manuel S. Santos, 2000. "Accuracy of Numerical Solutions using the Euler Equation Residuals," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1377-1402, November.
  34. Judd, Kenneth L., 1992. "Projection methods for solving aggregate growth models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 410-452, December.
  35. Manuel S. Santos, 2010. "Consistency properties of a simulation-based estimator for dynamic processes," Papers 1001.2173, arXiv.org.
  36. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-1286, September.
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