IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgif/1213.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Managing Capital Flows in the Presence of External Risks

Author

Abstract

We introduce external risks, in the form of shocks to the level and volatility of world interest rates, into a small open economy model subject to the risk of sudden stops?large recessions together with abrupt reversals in capital inflows| and characterize optimal macroprudential policy in response to these shocks. In the model, collateral constraints create a pecuniary externality that leads to \"overborrowing\" and sudden stops that arise when the constraints bind. The typical sudden stop generated by the model replicates existing empirical evidence for emerging market economies: Low and stable external interest rates reinforce \"overborrowing\" and lead to greater exposure to crises typically accompanied by abrupt increases in interest rates and a persistent rise in their volatility. We solve for the optimal policy and argue that the size of a tax on international borrowing that implements the policy depends on two factors, the incidence and the severity of potential future crises. We show quantitatively that these taxes respond to both the level and volatility of interest rates even though optimal decisions in the competitive equilibrium do not respond substantially to changes in volatility, and that the size of the optimal tax is non-monotonic with respect to external shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo M. Reyes-Heroles & Gabriel Tenorio, 2017. "Managing Capital Flows in the Presence of External Risks," International Finance Discussion Papers 1213, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1213
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2017.1213
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/files/ifdp1213.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.17016/IFDP.2017.1213?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Javier Bianchi, 2011. "Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3400-3426, December.
    2. Joshua Aizenman & Mahir Binici & Michael M. Hutchison, 2016. "The Transmission of Federal Reserve Tapering News to Emerging Financial Markets," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(2), pages 317-356, June.
    3. Anton Korinek, 2011. "The New Economics of Prudential Capital Controls: A Research Agenda," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(3), pages 523-561, August.
    4. Enrique G. Mendoza & Katherine A. Smith, 2002. "Margin Calls, Trading Costs, and Asset Prices in Emerging Markets: The Finanical Mechanics of the 'Sudden Stop' Phenomenon," NBER Working Papers 9286, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Martin Uribe, 2011. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2530-2561, October.
    6. Ostry, Jonathan D., 2012. "Managing Capital Flows: What Tools to Use?," Asian Development Review, Asian Development Bank, vol. 29(1), pages 83-89.
    7. Javier Bianchi & Chenxin Liu & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2016. "Fundamentals News, Global Liquidity, and Macroprudential Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Ricardo M. Reyes-Heroles & Gabriel Tenorio, 2017. "Interest Rate Volatility and Sudden Stops : An Empirical Investigation," International Finance Discussion Papers 1209, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Tauchen, George, 1986. "Finite state markov-chain approximations to univariate and vector autoregressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 177-181.
    10. Neumeyer, Pablo A. & Perri, Fabrizio, 2005. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 345-380, March.
    11. Mr. Bas B. Bakker & Mr. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Mr. Luc Laeven & Mr. Jerome Vandenbussche & Ms. Deniz O Igan & Mr. Hui Tong, 2012. "Policies for Macrofinancial Stability: How to Deal with Credit Booms," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2012/006, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Jeanne, Olivier & Korinek, Anton, 2019. "Managing credit booms and busts: A Pigouvian taxation approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 2-17.
    13. Javier Bianchi & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2018. "Optimal Time-Consistent Macroprudential Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 588-634.
    14. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    15. Gianluca Benigno & Huigang Chen & Christopher Otrok & Alessandro Rebucci & Eric R. Young, 2011. "Revisiting Overborrowing and its Policy Implications," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Diego Saravia (ed.),Monetary Policy under Financial Turbulence, edition 1, volume 16, chapter 6, pages 145-184, Central Bank of Chile.
    16. Benigno, Gianluca & Chen, Huigang & Otrok, Christopher & Rebucci, Alessandro & Young, Eric R., 2013. "Financial crises and macro-prudential policies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 453-470.
    17. Carroll, Christopher D., 2006. "The method of endogenous gridpoints for solving dynamic stochastic optimization problems," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 312-320, June.
    18. Eichengreen, Barry & Gupta, Poonam, 2015. "Tapering talk: The impact of expectations of reduced Federal Reserve security purchases on emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-15.
    19. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
    20. Olivier Jeanne & Anton Korinek, 2020. "Macroprudential Regulation versus mopping up after the crash," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 1470-1497.
    21. Roberto Chang & Andrés Fernández, 2013. "On The Sources Of Aggregate Fluctuations In Emerging Economies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54, pages 1265-1293, November.
    22. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2010. "Sudden Stops, Financial Crises, and Leverage," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 1941-1966, December.
    23. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Smith, Katherine A., 2006. "Quantitative implications of a debt-deflation theory of Sudden Stops and asset prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 82-114, September.
    24. Unknown, 1986. "Letters," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 1(4), pages 1-9.
    25. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2002. "Credit, Prices, and Crashes: Business Cycles with a Sudden Stop," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 335-392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Aruoba, S. Boragan & Fernandez-Villaverde, Jesus & Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F., 2006. "Comparing solution methods for dynamic equilibrium economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2477-2508, December.
    27. Eric Young & Alessandro Rebucci & Christopher Otrok, 2013. "Capital Controls or Real Exchange Rate Policy? A Pecuniary Externality Perspective," 2013 Meeting Papers 641, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    28. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011. "How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 75-103, April.
    29. Ahmed, Shaghil & Zlate, Andrei, 2014. "Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 221-248.
    30. Javier Bianchi & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2011. "Overborrowing, Financial Crises and 'Macro-prudential' Policy," 2011 Meeting Papers 175, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    31. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, "undated". "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
    32. Anton Korinek & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2013. "From Sudden Stops to Fisherian Deflation: Quantitative Theory and Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 19362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Klein Paul & Quadrini Vincenzo & Rios-Rull Jose-Victor, 2005. "Optimal Time-Consistent Taxation with International Mobility Of Capital," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-36, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ricardo M. Reyes-Heroles & Gabriel Tenorio, 2017. "Interest Rate Volatility and Sudden Stops : An Empirical Investigation," International Finance Discussion Papers 1209, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Jensen, Henrik & Ravn, Søren Hove & Santoro, Emiliano, 2019. "Kinks and Gains from Credit Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 13795, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Reyes-Heroles, Ricardo & Tenorio, Gabriel, 2019. "Regime-switching in emerging market business cycles: Interest rate volatility and sudden stops," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 81-100.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Reyes-Heroles, Ricardo & Tenorio, Gabriel, 2020. "Macroprudential policy in the presence of external risks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    2. Anton Korinek & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2013. "From Sudden Stops to Fisherian Deflation: Quantitative Theory and Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 19362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Jeanne, Olivier & Korinek, Anton, 2019. "Managing credit booms and busts: A Pigouvian taxation approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 2-17.
    4. Norring, Anni, 2022. "Taming the tides of capital: Review of capital controls and macroprudential policy in emerging economies," BoF Economics Review 1/2022, Bank of Finland.
    5. Korinek, Anton & Sandri, Damiano, 2016. "Capital controls or macroprudential regulation?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(S1), pages 27-42.
    6. Hao Jin & Hewei Shen, 2020. "Foreign Asset Accumulation among Emerging Market Economies: a Case for Coordination," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 35, pages 54-73, January.
    7. Fornaro, Luca, 2015. "Financial crises and exchange rate policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 202-215.
    8. Ma, Chang, 2020. "Financial stability, growth and macroprudential policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    9. Bilge Erten & Anton Korinek & José Antonio Ocampo, 2021. "Capital Controls: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(1), pages 45-89, March.
    10. Liu, Siming, 2022. "Government spending during sudden stop crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    11. Hewei Shen, 2016. "Financial Crises and the Role of Debt Maturity for Emerging Economies," CAEPR Working Papers 2017-012, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    12. Benguria, Felipe & Matsumoto, Hidehiko & Saffie, Felipe, 2022. "Productivity and trade dynamics in sudden stops," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    13. Pierri, Damian Rene & Reffett, Kevin, 2021. "Memory, multiple equilibria and emerging market crises," UC3M Working papers. Economics 32871, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    14. Mr. Anton Korinek, 2011. "The New Economics of Capital Controls Imposed for Prudential Reasons+L4888," IMF Working Papers 2011/298, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Lorenzoni, Guido, 2014. "International Financial Crises," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 689-740, Elsevier.
    16. Paolo Angelini & Stefano Neri & Fabio Panetta, 2011. "Monetary and macroprudential policies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 801, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    17. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2018. "Macroprudential Policy: Promise and Challenges," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Enrique G. Mendoza & Ernesto Pastén & Diego Saravia (ed.),Monetary Policy and Global Spillovers: Mechanisms, Effects and Policy Measures, edition 1, volume 25, chapter 7, pages 225-277, Central Bank of Chile.
    18. Christopher Otrok & Andrew Foerster & Alessandro Rebucci & Gianluca Benigno, 2017. "Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime Switching Approach," 2017 Meeting Papers 572, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Enrique G. Mendoza & Eugenio Rojas, 2019. "Positive and Normative Implications of Liability Dollarization for Sudden Stops Models of Macroprudential Policy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 174-214, March.
    20. Ottonello, Pablo, 2021. "Optimal exchange-rate policy under collateral constraints and wage rigidity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroprudential policy; time-varying volatility; sudden stops; financial crises; external interest rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F6 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1213. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.