IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/vie/viennp/vie1907.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Sudden Stops and Reserve Accumulation in the Presence of International Liquidity Risk

Author

Abstract

We propose a small open economy model where agents borrow internationally and invest in liquid foreign assets to insure against liquidity shocks, which temporarily shut out the economy of short-term credit markets. Due to the presence of a pecuniary externality individual agents borrow too much and hold too little liquid assets relative to a social planner. This inefficiency rationalizes macroprudential policy interventions in the form of reserve accumulation at the central bank coupled with a tax on foreign borrowing. Unless combined with other measures, a tax on foreign borrowing is detrimental to welfare; it reduces agents’ incentives to invest in liquid assets and thereby increases financial instability. Our model can quantitatively match the simultaneous depreciation of the exchange rate and contractions in output, gross trade flows, foreign liabilities and liquid reserves during Sudden Stop episodes.

Suggested Citation

  • Flora Lutz & Leopold Zessner-Spitzenberg, 2019. "Sudden Stops and Reserve Accumulation in the Presence of International Liquidity Risk," Vienna Economics Papers vie1907, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:vie:viennp:vie1907
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://papersecon.univie.ac.at/RePEc/vie/viennp/vie1907.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Javier Bianchi, 2011. "Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3400-3426, December.
    2. Enrique G. Mendoza & Eugenio Rojas, 2019. "Positive and Normative Implications of Liability Dollarization for Sudden Stops Models of Macroprudential Policy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 174-214, March.
    3. Bacchetta Philippe & Benhima Kenza, 2010. "The Demand for Liquid Assets, Corporate Saving, and Global Imbalances," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 10.12, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    4. Javier Bianchi & Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez, 2018. "International Reserves and Rollover Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2629-2670, September.
    5. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Stéphane Guibaud & Keyu Jin, 2015. "Credit Constraints and Growth in a Global Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(9), pages 2838-2881, September.
    6. Mark Aguiar & Manuel Amador, 2011. "Growth in the Shadow of Expropriation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(2), pages 651-697.
    7. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2008. "Financial versus Monetary Mercantilism: Long‐run View of Large International Reserves Hoarding," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 593-611, May.
    8. Jeanne, Olivier & Sandri, Damiano, 2020. "Optimal reserves in financially closed economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    9. Gianluca Benigno & Luca Fornaro & Martin Wolf, 2012. "Reserve accumulation, growth and financial crises," Economics Working Papers 1795, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2022.
    10. Gazi I. Kara & S. Mehmet Ozsoy, 2016. "Bank regulation under fire sale externalities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-026, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
    12. Benigno, Gianluca & Chen, Huigang & Otrok, Christopher & Rebucci, Alessandro & Young, Eric R., 2013. "Financial crises and macro-prudential policies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 453-470.
    13. Philippe Bacchetta & Kenza Benhima & Céline Poilly, 2019. "Corporate Cash and Employment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 30-66, July.
    14. Olivier Jeanne & Romain Rancière, 2011. "The Optimal Level of International Reserves For Emerging Market Countries: A New Formula and Some Applications," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(555), pages 905-930, September.
    15. Timothy J. Kehoe & David K. Levine, 1993. "Debt-Constrained Asset Markets," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(4), pages 865-888.
    16. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Financial Stability, the Trilemma, and International Reserves," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 57-94, April.
    17. Korinek, Anton & Servén, Luis, 2016. "Undervaluation through foreign reserve accumulation: Static losses, dynamic gains," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 104-136.
    18. Guido Lorenzoni, 2008. "Inefficient Credit Booms," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(3), pages 809-833.
    19. Benigno, Gianluca & Chen, Huigang & Otrok, Christopher & Rebucci, Alessandro & Young, Eric R., 2016. "Optimal capital controls and real exchange rate policies: A pecuniary externality perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 147-165.
    20. Luis-Fernando Mejía & Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo, 2004. "On the empirics of Sudden Stops: the relevance of balance-sheet effects," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
    21. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Panageas, Stavros, 2008. "Hedging sudden stops and precautionary contractions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 28-57, February.
    22. Paul Pichler & Flora Lutz, 2017. "Liquidity risk and financial stability regulation," Vienna Economics Papers 1701, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    23. Frederic Malherbe, 2014. "Self-Fulfilling Liquidity Dry-Ups," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 947-970, April.
    24. Philip D Wooldridge, 2006. "The changing composition of official reserves," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    25. Zheng Song & Kjetil Storesletten & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2011. "Growing Like China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 196-233, February.
    26. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 235-251.
    27. Javier Bianchi & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2018. "Optimal Time-Consistent Macroprudential Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 588-634.
    28. Broner, Fernando & Didier, Tatiana & Erce, Aitor & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2013. "Gross capital flows: Dynamics and crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 113-133.
    29. Stefan Avdjiev & Bryan Hardy & Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Luis Servén, 2022. "Gross Capital Flows by Banks, Corporates, and Sovereigns [“Cyclical Budgetary Policy and Economic Growth: What Do We Learn from OECD Panel Data?”]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(5), pages 2098-2135.
    30. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
    31. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Stéphane Guibaud & Keyu Jin, 2015. "Credit Constraints and Growth in a Global Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(9), pages 2838-2881, September.
    32. Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Cédric Tille, 2011. "The great retrenchment: international capital flows during the global financial crisis [‘The great trade collapse: what caused it and what does it mean?’]," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 26(66), pages 289-346.
    33. Olivier Jeanne, 2016. "The Macroprudential Role of International Reserves," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 570-573, May.
    34. Martin Wolf, 2019. "Pecuniary Externalities in Economies with Downward Wage Rigidity," Vienna Economics Papers vie1905, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    35. Olivier Jeanne & Anton Korinek, 2010. "Excessive Volatility in Capital Flows: A Pigouvian Taxation Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 403-407, May.
    36. Paul Pichler & Flora Lutz, 2017. "Liquidity risk and financial stability regulation," Vienna Economics Papers vie1701, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    37. Corneli, Flavia & Tarantino, Emanuele, 2016. "Sovereign debt and reserves with liquidity and productivity crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 166-194.
    38. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2002. "Credit, Prices, and Crashes: Business Cycles with a Sudden Stop," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 335-392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    39. Irina A. Telyukova, 2013. "Household Need for Liquidity and the Credit Card Debt Puzzle," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(3), pages 1148-1177.
    40. Guillermo Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Rudy Loo-Kung, 2013. "Optimal Holdings of International Reserves: Self-insurance against Sudden Stops," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 1-35, January-j.
    41. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Stéphane Guibaud & Keyu Jin, 2015. "Credit Constraints and Growth in a Global Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(9), pages 2838-2881, September.
    42. Wolf, Martin, 2020. "Pecuniary externalities in economies with downward wage rigidity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 219-235.
    43. Jung, Kuk Mo & Pyun, Ju Hyun, 2016. "International reserves for emerging economies: A liquidity approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 230-257.
    44. Hur, Sewon & Kondo, Illenin O., 2016. "A theory of rollover risk, sudden stops, and foreign reserves," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 44-63.
    45. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2010. "Sudden Stops, Financial Crises, and Leverage," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 1941-1966, December.
    46. Fernando Arce Munoz & Javier Bianchi & Julien Bengui, 2019. "A Macroprudential Theory of International Reserves," 2019 Meeting Papers 1569, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    47. Guillermo Calvo, 2013. "Puzzling over the Anatomy of Crises: Liquidity and the Veil of Finance," IMES Discussion Paper Series 13-E-09, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    48. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, "undated". "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
    49. Robert N McCauley & Jenz Zukunft, 2008. "Asian banks and the international interbank market," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    50. Svensson, Lars E O, 1985. "Money and Asset Prices in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(5), pages 919-944, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Flora Lutz & Leopold Zessner-Spitzenberg, 2019. "Sudden Stops and Reserve Accumulation in the Presence of International Liquidity Risk," Vienna Economics Papers 1907, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    2. Lutz, Flora & Zessner-Spitzenberg, Leopold, 2020. "Sudden Stops and Reserve Accumulation in the Presence of International Liquidity Risk," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224520, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Ma, Chang, 2020. "Financial stability, growth and macroprudential policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    4. Sebastián Fanelli & Ludwig Straub, 2021. "A Theory of Foreign Exchange Interventions [The Cost of Foreign Exchange Intervention: Concepts and Measurement]," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 88(6), pages 2857-2885.
    5. Hur, Sewon & Kondo, Illenin O., 2016. "A theory of rollover risk, sudden stops, and foreign reserves," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 44-63.
    6. Cheng, Gong, 2015. "A Growth Perspective On Foreign Reserve Accumulation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(6), pages 1358-1379, September.
    7. Lorenzoni, Guido, 2014. "International Financial Crises," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 689-740, Elsevier.
    8. Woo Jin Choi & Alan M. Taylor, 2017. "Precaution Versus Mercantilism: Reserve Accumulation, Capital Controls, and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 23341, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Fornaro, Luca, 2015. "Financial crises and exchange rate policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 202-215.
    10. Fernando Arce & Julien Bengui & Javier Bianchi, 2019. "A Macroprudential Theory of Foreign Reserve Accumulation," NBER Working Papers 26236, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Zsofia Barany & Nicolas Coeurdacier & Stéphane Guibaud, 2015. "Fertility, Longevity and International Capital Flows," Working Papers hal-01164462, HAL.
    12. Broner, Fernando & Didier, Tatiana & Erce, Aitor & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2013. "Gross capital flows: Dynamics and crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 113-133.
    13. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Rey, Hélène, 2014. "External Adjustment, Global Imbalances, Valuation Effects," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 585-645, Elsevier.
    14. Benigno, Gianluca & Chen, Huigang & Otrok, Christopher & Rebucci, Alessandro & Young, Eric R, 2012. "Optimal Policy for Macro-Financial Stability," CEPR Discussion Papers 9223, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Javier Bianchi & Enrique Mendoza, 2020. "A Fisherian Approach to Financial Crises: Lessons from the Sudden Stops Literature," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 254-283, August.
    16. Nicolas Coeurdacier, 2016. "Fertility, Longevity, and Capital Flows," 2016 Meeting Papers 442, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. J. Scott Davis & Michael B. Devereux & Changhua Yu, 2020. "Sudden Stops in Emerging Economies: The Role of World Interest Rates and Foreign Exchange Intervention," Globalization Institute Working Papers 405, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 10 Sep 2021.
    18. Benigno, Gianluca & Chen, Huigang & Otrok, Christopher & Rebucci, Alessandro & Young, Eric R., 2013. "Financial crises and macro-prudential policies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 453-470.
    19. Norring, Anni, 2022. "Taming the tides of capital: Review of capital controls and macroprudential policy in emerging economies," BoF Economics Review 1/2022, Bank of Finland.
    20. Javier Bianchi & Guido Lorenzoni, 2021. "The Prudential Use of Capital Controls and Foreign Currency Reserves," Working Papers 787, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vie:viennp:vie1907. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://econ.univie.ac.at/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Paper Administrator (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://econ.univie.ac.at/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.