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A Macroprudential Theory of Foreign Reserve Accumulation

Author

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  • Fernando Arce
  • Julien Bengui
  • Javier Bianchi

Abstract

This paper proposes a theory of foreign reserves as macroprudential policy. We study an open economy model of financial crises, in which pecuniary externalities lead to over-borrowing, and show that by accumulating international reserves, the government can achieve the constrained-efficient allocation. The optimal reserve accumulation policy leans against the wind and significantly reduces the exposure to financial crises. The theory is consistent with the joint dynamics of private and official capital flows, both over time and in the cross section, and can quantitatively account for the recent upward trend in international reserves.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando Arce & Julien Bengui & Javier Bianchi, 2019. "A Macroprudential Theory of Foreign Reserve Accumulation," Working Papers 761, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmwp:761
    DOI: 10.21034/wp.761
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    as
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sosa-Padilla, César & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2023. "Does it matter how central banks accumulate reserves? Evidence from sovereign spreads," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. Jeanne, Olivier & Sandri, Damiano, 2020. "Optimal reserves in financially closed economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    3. J. Scott Davis & Michael B. Devereux & Changhua Yu, 2020. "Sudden Stops in Emerging Economies: The Role of World Interest Rates and Foreign Exchange Intervention," Globalization Institute Working Papers 405, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 10 Sep 2021.
    4. Hidehiko Matsumoto, 2022. "Foreign Reserve Accumulation, Foreign Direct Investment, and Economic Growth," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 241-262, January.
    5. Gianluca Benigno & Luca Fornaro & Martin Wolf, 2012. "Reserve accumulation, growth and financial crises," Economics Working Papers 1795, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2022.
    6. Pierri, Damian Rene & Reffett, Kevin, 2021. "Memory, multiple equilibria and emerging market crises," UC3M Working papers. Economics 32871, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    7. Lama, Ruy & Medina, Juan Pablo, 2020. "Mundell meets Poole: Managing capital flows with multiple instruments in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    8. Alessandro Rebucci & Chang Ma, 2019. "Capital Controls: A Survey of the New Literature," NBER Working Papers 26558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Bengui, Julien & Bianchi, Javier, 2022. "Macroprudential policy with leakages," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    10. Sandri, Damiano, 2020. "Global Financial Cycle and Liquidity Management," CEPR Discussion Papers 15328, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Javier Bianchi & Enrique Mendoza, 2020. "A Fisherian Approach to Financial Crises: Lessons from the Sudden Stops Literature," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 254-283, August.
    12. Ferrero, Andrea & Habib, Maurizio Michael & Stracca, Livio & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2022. "Leaning against the global financial cycle," Working Paper Series 2763, European Central Bank.
    13. Samano, Agustin, 2022. "International reserves and central bank independence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    14. Rafael Cezar & Eric Monnet, 2021. "Capital Controls and Foreign Reserves against External Shocks: Combined or Alone?," Working papers 849, Banque de France.
    15. Javier Bianchi, 2022. "The Research Agenda: Javier Bianchi on Financial Crises and Prudential Policies," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 23(1), April.
    16. Chokri Zehri, 2020. "Capital controls to manage foreign exchange reserves and foreign debts," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 38(1), pages 271-294.
    17. Choi, Woo Jin & Taylor, Alan M., 2022. "Precaution versus mercantilism: Reserve accumulation, capital controls, and the real exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    18. Javier Bianchi & Guido Lorenzoni, 2021. "The Prudential Use of Capital Controls and Foreign Currency Reserves," NBER Working Papers 29476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Hidehiko Matsumoto, 2022. "Foreign Reserve Accumulation, Foreign Direct Investment, and Economic Growth," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 241-262, January.
    20. Javier Bianchi & Cesar Sosa-Padilla, 2018. "Reserve Accumulation, Macroeconomic Stabilization and Sovereign Risk," 2018 Meeting Papers 1166, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    21. Boris Hofmann & Nikhil Patel & Steve Pak Yeung Wu, 2022. "Original sin redux: a model-based evaluation," BIS Working Papers 1004, Bank for International Settlements.
    22. Cecchetti, Stephen G. & Narita, Machiko & Rawat, Umang & Sahay, Ratna, 2023. "Addressing Spillovers from Prolonged U.S. Monetary Policy Easing," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    23. Benigno, Gianluca & Fornaro, Luca & Wolf, Martin, 2022. "Reserve accumulation, growth and financial crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    24. Hidehiko Matsumoto, 2021. "Monetary and Macroprudential Policies under Dollar-Denominated Foreign Debt," IMES Discussion Paper Series 21-E-04, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroprudential policy; International reserves; Financial crises;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General

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