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A Fisherian Approach to Financial Crises: Lessons from the Sudden Stops Literature

Author

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  • Javier Bianchi

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)

  • Enrique Mendoza

    (University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

Sudden Stops are financial crises defined by a large, sudden current-account reversal. They occur in both advanced and emerging economies and result in deep recessions, collapsing asset prices, and real exchange-rate depreciations. They are preceded by economic expansions, current-account deficits, credit booms, and appreciated asset prices and real exchange rates. Fisherian models (i.e. models with credit constraints linked to market prices) explain these stylized facts as an outcome of Irving Fisher's debt-deflation mechanism. On the normative side, these models feature a pecuniary externality that provides a foundation for macroprudential policy (MPP). We review the stylized facts of Sudden Stops, the evidence on MPP use and effectiveness, and the findings of the literature on Fisherian models. Quantitatively, Fisherian amplification is strong and optimal MPP reduces sharply the size and frequency of crises, but it is also complex and potentially time-inconsistent, and simple MPP rules are less effective. We also provide a new MPP analysis incorporating investment. Using a constant debt-tax policy, we construct a crisis probability-output frontier showing that there is a tradeoff between financial stability and long-run output (i.e., reducing the probability of crises reduces long-run output). (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Bianchi & Enrique Mendoza, 2020. "A Fisherian Approach to Financial Crises: Lessons from the Sudden Stops Literature," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 254-283, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:20-260
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2020.06.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Mihailov & Harun Nasir, 2020. "Sudden Stops, Productivity and the Optimal Level of International Reserves for Small Open Economies," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2020-24, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    2. J. Scott Davis & Michael B. Devereux & Changhua Yu, 2020. "Sudden Stops and Optimal Foreign Exchange Intervention," NBER Working Papers 28079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Carlos Esteban Posada Posada, 2020. "Crecimiento y ciclos de la economía colombiana (2005 – 2019)," Documentos de Trabajo CIEF 018255, Universidad EAFIT.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sudden stops; Financial crises; Macroprudential policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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