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Monetary policy in sudden stop-prone economies

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  • COULIBALY, Louphou

Abstract

In a model featuring sudden stops and pecuniary externalities, I show that the ability to use capital controls has radical implications for the conduct of monetary policy. Absent capital controls, following an inflation targeting regime is nearly optimal. However, if the central bank lacks commitment, it will follow a monetary policy that is excessively procyclical and not desirable from an ex ante welfare prospective: it increases overall indebtedness as well as the frequency of financial crisis and reduces social welfare relative to an inflation targeting regime. Access to capital controls can correct this monetary policy bias. With capital controls, relative to an inflation targeting regime, the time-consistent regime reduces both the frequency and magnitude of crises, and increases social welfare. This paper rationalizes the procyclicality of the monetary policy observed in many emerging market economies.

Suggested Citation

  • COULIBALY, Louphou, 2018. "Monetary policy in sudden stop-prone economies," Cahiers de recherche 2018-03, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  • Handle: RePEc:mtl:montde:2018-03
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1866/20649
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crises; monetary policy; capital controls; time consistency; aggregate demand externality; pecuniary externality;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F38 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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