IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/boc/bocoec/866.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Good News is Bad News: Leverage Cycles and Sudden Stops

Author

Listed:
  • Ozge Akinci

    (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)

  • Ryan Chahrour

    (Boston College)

Abstract

We show that a model with imperfectly forecastable changes in future productivity and an occasionally-binding collateral constraint can match a set of stylized facts about Sudden Stop events. "Good" news about future productivity raises leverage during times of expansions, increasing the probability that the constraint binds, and a Sudden Stop occurs, in future periods. During the Sudden Stop, the nonlinear effects of the constraint induce output, consumption and investment to fall substantially below trend, as they do in the data. Also consistent with data, the economy exhibits a boom period prior to the Sudden Stop, with output, consumption, and investment all above trend.

Suggested Citation

  • Ozge Akinci & Ryan Chahrour, 2014. "Good News is Bad News: Leverage Cycles and Sudden Stops," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 866, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 30 Apr 2015.
  • Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:866
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://fmwww.bc.edu/EC-P/wp866.pdf
    File Function: main text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Javier Bianchi, 2011. "Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3400-3426, December.
    2. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    3. Javier Garcia-Cicco & Roberto Pancrazi & Martin Uribe, 2010. "Real Business Cycles in Emerging Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 2510-2531, December.
    4. Javier Bianchi & Chenxin Liu & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2016. "Fundamentals News, Global Liquidity, and Macroprudential Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-248, April.
    6. Uribe, Martin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2006. "Country spreads and emerging countries: Who drives whom?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 6-36, June.
    7. Guerrieri, Luca & Iacoviello, Matteo, 2015. "OccBin: A toolkit for solving dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints easily," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 22-38.
    8. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2014. "An Anatomy of Credit Booms and their Demise," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Miguel Fuentes D. & Claudio E. Raddatz & Carmen M. Reinhart (ed.),Capital Mobility and Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 18, chapter 6, pages 165-204, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Emil Verner, 2017. "Household Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 132(4), pages 1755-1817.
    10. Stephanie Schmitt‐Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2012. "What's News in Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2733-2764, November.
    11. Gertler, Mark & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 2010. "Financial Intermediation and Credit Policy in Business Cycle Analysis," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 11, pages 547-599, Elsevier.
    12. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2008. "News and Business Cycles in Open Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1699-1711, December.
    13. Gianluca Benigno & Huigang Chen & Christopher Otrok & Alessandro Rebucci & Eric R. Young, 2023. "Optimal Policy for Macrofinancial Stability," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 401-428, October.
    14. Ryan Chahrour & Kyle Jurado, 2018. "News or Noise? The Missing Link," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(7), pages 1702-1736, July.
    15. Akıncı, Özge, 2013. "Global financial conditions, country spreads and macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 358-371.
    16. Guido Lorenzoni, 2008. "Inefficient Credit Booms," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(3), pages 809-833.
    17. Durdu, C. Bora & Nunes, Ricardo & Sapriza, Horacio, 2013. "News and sovereign default risk in small open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 1-17.
    18. Javier Bianchi & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2018. "Optimal Time-Consistent Macroprudential Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 588-634.
    19. Guerrieri, Luca & Iacoviello, Matteo, 2017. "Collateral constraints and macroeconomic asymmetries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 28-49.
    20. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    21. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-417, June.
    22. Benigno, Gianluca & Chen, Huigang & Otrok, Christopher & Rebucci, Alessandro & Young, Eric R, 2012. "Optimal Policy for Macro-Financial Stability," CEPR Discussion Papers 9223, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. Fornaro, Luca, 2015. "Financial crises and exchange rate policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 202-215.
    24. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio M. Natalucci, 2007. "External Constraints on Monetary Policy and the Financial Accelerator," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2‐3), pages 295-330, March.
    25. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 226-265, January.
    26. Luigi Bocola, 2016. "The Pass-Through of Sovereign Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(4), pages 879-926.
    27. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006. "Sudden Stops and Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 405-410, May.
    28. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1293-1307, September.
    29. Javier Bianchi & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2010. "Overborrowing, financial crises and ‘macro-prudential’ taxes," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Oct.
    30. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2016. "Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity, Currency Pegs, and Involuntary Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(5), pages 1466-1514.
    31. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2010. "Sudden Stops, Financial Crises, and Leverage," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 1941-1966, December.
    32. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Smith, Katherine A., 2006. "Quantitative implications of a debt-deflation theory of Sudden Stops and asset prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 82-114, September.
    33. Ozge Akinci & Albert Queraltó, 2016. "Credit spreads, financial crises, and macroprudential policy," Staff Reports 802, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    34. Benigno , Gianluca & Chen , Huigang & Otrock , Christopher & Rebucci , Alessandro & Young , Eric R., 2012. "Monetary and Macro-prudential Policies: An Integrated Analysis," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 7(1), pages 1-40, October.
    35. Ozge Akinci & Albert Queraltó, 2014. "Banks, Capital Flows and Financial Crises," International Finance Discussion Papers 1121, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    36. Anton Korinek & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2014. "From Sudden Stops to Fisherian Deflation: Quantitative Theory and Policy," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 299-332, August.
    37. Gertler, Mark & Karadi, Peter, 2011. "A model of unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-34, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Javier Bianchi & Chenxin Liu & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2016. "Fundamentals News, Global Liquidity, and Macroprudential Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Flemming, Jean & L'Huillier, Jean-Paul & Piguillem, Facundo, 2019. "Macro-prudential taxation in good times," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    3. Scheubel, Beatrice & Stracca, Livio & Tille, Cédric, 2019. "The global financial cycle and capital flow episodes: a wobbly link?," Working Paper Series 2337, European Central Bank.
    4. Özge Akinci, 2021. "Financial Frictions and Macro‐Economic Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(6), pages 1267-1312, September.
    5. McQuade, Peter & Schmitz, Martin, 2019. "America First? A US-centric view of global capital flows," Working Paper Series 2238, European Central Bank.
    6. Benguria, Felipe & Matsumoto, Hidehiko & Saffie, Felipe, 2022. "Productivity and trade dynamics in sudden stops," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    7. Matsue, Toyoki, 2019. "Employment fluctuations in a dynamic model with long-term and short-term contracts," MPRA Paper 97545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Rojas, Eugenio & Saffie, Felipe, 2022. "Non-homothetic sudden stops," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    9. Salisu, Afees A. & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2020. "Predicting stock returns in the presence of COVID-19 pandemic: The role of health news," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    10. Emter, Lorenz, 2023. "Leverage cycles, growth shocks, and sudden stops in capital inflows," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 711-731.
    11. Ozhan, Galip Kemal, 2020. "Financial intermediation, resource allocation, and macroeconomic interdependence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 265-278.
    12. Galip Kemal Ozhan, 2015. "Financial Intermediation, Resource Allocation, and Macroeconomic Interdependence," 2015 Papers poz71, Job Market Papers.
    13. Wasiuzzaman, Shaista & Haji Abdul Rahman, Hajah Siti Wardah, 2021. "Performance of gold-backed cryptocurrencies during the COVID-19 crisis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    14. Akihiko Ikeda, 2020. "Learning-by-doing and business cycles in emerging economies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 156(3), pages 611-631, August.
    15. Ramos-Francia, Manuel & Garcia-Verdu, Santiago, 2018. "Is trouble brewing for emerging market economies? An empirical analysis of emerging market economies’ bond flows," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 172-191.
    16. Juan Herreño & Carlos Rondón-Moreno, 2022. "Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle Under Imperfect Information," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 940, Central Bank of Chile.
    17. Seoane, Hernán D. & Yurdagul, Emircan, 2019. "Trend shocks and sudden stops," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    18. Shaista Wasiuzzaman, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 on the Saudi stock market: analysis of return, volatility and trading volume," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(4), pages 350-363, July.
    19. Javier Garcia-Cicco & Markus Kirchner & Julio Carrillo & Diego Rodríguez & Fernando Perez & Rocío Gondo & Carlos Montoro & Roberto Chang, 2017. "Financial and real shocks and the effectiveness of monetary and macroprudential policies in Latin American countries," BIS Working Papers 668, Bank for International Settlements.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Devereux, Michael B. & Young, Eric R. & Yu, Changhua, 2019. "Capital controls and monetary policy in sudden-stop economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 52-74.
    2. Christopher Otrok & Andrew Foerster & Alessandro Rebucci & Gianluca Benigno, 2017. "Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime Switching Approach," 2017 Meeting Papers 572, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Nadav Ben Zeev, 2019. "Asymmetric Business Cycles In Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers 1909, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    4. Anton Korinek & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2013. "From Sudden Stops to Fisherian Deflation: Quantitative Theory and Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 19362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Javier Bianchi & Enrique Mendoza, 2020. "A Fisherian Approach to Financial Crises: Lessons from the Sudden Stops Literature," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 254-283, August.
    6. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95, July.
    7. Ottonello, Pablo, 2021. "Optimal exchange-rate policy under collateral constraints and wage rigidity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    8. Javier Bianchi, 2016. "Efficient Bailouts?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(12), pages 3607-3659, December.
    9. Bianchi, Javier & Liu, Chenxin & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2016. "Fundamentals news, global liquidity and macroprudential policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(S1), pages 2-15.
    10. Paul, Pascal, 2020. "A macroeconomic model with occasional financial crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    11. Ozge Akinci & Albert Queraltó, 2014. "Banks, Capital Flows and Financial Crises," International Finance Discussion Papers 1121, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Jeanne, Olivier & Korinek, Anton, 2019. "Managing credit booms and busts: A Pigouvian taxation approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 2-17.
    13. Ma, Chang, 2020. "Financial stability, growth and macroprudential policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    14. Benigno, Gianluca & Chen, Huigang & Otrok, Christopher & Rebucci, Alessandro & Young, Eric R., 2016. "Optimal capital controls and real exchange rate policies: A pecuniary externality perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 147-165.
    15. Jae Shim, 2016. "Financial Frictions in the Small Open Economy," Department of Economics Working Papers 50/16, University of Bath, Department of Economics.
    16. Gertler, M. & Kiyotaki, N. & Prestipino, A., 2016. "Wholesale Banking and Bank Runs in Macroeconomic Modeling of Financial Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1345-1425, Elsevier.
    17. Korinek, Anton & Sandri, Damiano, 2016. "Capital controls or macroprudential regulation?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(S1), pages 27-42.
    18. Ozhan, Galip Kemal, 2020. "Financial intermediation, resource allocation, and macroeconomic interdependence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 265-278.
    19. Pierri, Damian Rene & Reffett, Kevin, 2021. "Memory, multiple equilibria and emerging market crises," UC3M Working papers. Economics 32871, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    20. Brei, Michael & Buzaushina, Almira, 2015. "International financial shocks in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 51-74.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    News Shocks; Sudden Stops; Leverage; Boom-Bust Cycle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:866. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christopher F Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/debocus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.