IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/dyncon/v182y2026ics0165188925001897.html

Optimal credit market policy

Author

Listed:
  • Iacoviello, Matteo
  • Nunes, Ricardo
  • Prestipino, Andrea

Abstract

We study optimal credit market policy in a stochastic, quantitative, general equilibrium, infinite-horizon economy with collateral constraints tied to housing prices. Collateral constraints imply that the competitive equilibrium is Pareto inefficient. Taxing housing or borrowing in good states and subsidizing it in recessions leads to a Pareto-improving allocation for borrowers and savers. Quantitatively, the welfare gains afforded by the optimal tax are significant. The optimal tax reduces the covariance of house prices with consumption, and, by doing so, it increases house prices on average and delivers welfare gains both in steady state and around it. We also show that the welfare gains stem from mopping up after the crash rather than the ex-ante macroprudential aspect, aligning with prior research that emphasizes the importance of ex-post measures compared to preventive policies alone.

Suggested Citation

  • Iacoviello, Matteo & Nunes, Ricardo & Prestipino, Andrea, 2026. "Optimal credit market policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:182:y:2026:i:c:s0165188925001897
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105223
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188925001897
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105223?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jordi Gal?, 2014. "Monetary Policy and Rational Asset Price Bubbles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(3), pages 721-752, March.
    2. Javier Bianchi, 2011. "Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3400-3426, December.
    3. Vedanta Dhamija & Ricardo Nunes & Roshni Tara, 2023. "House Price Expectations and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data," Discussion Papers 2318, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    4. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    5. Elisa Faraglia & Albert Marcet & Rigas Oikonomou & Andrew Scott, 2019. "Government Debt Management: The Long and the Short of It," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(6), pages 2554-2604.
    6. Lambertini, Luisa & Mendicino, Caterina & Teresa Punzi, Maria, 2013. "Leaning against boom–bust cycles in credit and housing prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1500-1522.
    7. Carlos Garriga & Finn E. Kydland & Roman Šustek, 2017. "Mortgages and Monetary Policy," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(10), pages 3337-3375.
    8. Kenneth L. Judd & Lilia Maliar & Serguei Maliar, 2011. "Numerically stable and accurate stochastic simulation approaches for solving dynamic economic models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(2), pages 173-210, July.
    9. François Le Grand & Xavier Ragot, 2025. "Optimal Fiscal Policy with Heterogeneous Agents and Capital: Should We Increase or Decrease Public Debt and Capital Taxes?," Post-Print hal-05142843, HAL.
    10. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Hélène Rey & Pablo Winant, 2011. "The risky steady state," SciencePo Working papers hal-00972801, HAL.
    11. Mark Gertler & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Andrea Prestipino, 2020. "Credit Booms, Financial Crises, and Macroprudential Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 8-33, August.
    12. den Haan, Wouter J & Marcet, Albert, 1990. "Solving the Stochastic Growth Model by Parameterizing Expectations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(1), pages 31-34, January.
    13. Guerrieri, Luca & Iacoviello, Matteo, 2017. "Collateral constraints and macroeconomic asymmetries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 28-49.
    14. Guido Lorenzoni, 2008. "Inefficient Credit Booms," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(3), pages 809-833.
    15. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2017. "Cost-benefit analysis of leaning against the wind," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 193-213.
    16. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g704ld0h3 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Reiter, Michael, 2009. "Solving heterogeneous-agent models by projection and perturbation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 649-665, March.
    18. Guerrieri, Luca & Iacoviello, Matteo, 2015. "OccBin: A toolkit for solving dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints easily," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 22-38.
    19. repec:fip:fedgsq:y:2009:x:6 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Floden, Martin, 2001. "The effectiveness of government debt and transfers as insurance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 81-108, August.
    21. Gertler, Mark & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 2010. "Financial Intermediation and Credit Policy in Business Cycle Analysis," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 11, pages 547-599, Elsevier.
    22. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Helene Rey & Pablo Winant, 2011. "The Risky Steady State," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 398-401, May.
    23. Andrea Ferrero & Richard Harrison & Benjamin Nelson, 2024. "House Price Dynamics, Optimal LTV Limits and the Liquidity Trap," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(2), pages 940-971.
    24. Rubio, Margarita & Carrasco-Gallego, José A., 2014. "Macroprudential and monetary policies: Implications for financial stability and welfare," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 326-336.
    25. Vytautas Valaitis & Alessandro T. Villa, 2024. "A machine learning projection method for macro‐finance models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 15(1), pages 145-173, January.
    26. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Fisher, Jonas D. M., 2000. "Algorithms for solving dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1179-1232, July.
    27. Moritz Schularick & Lucas ter Steege & Felix Ward, 2021. "Leaning against the Wind and Crisis Risk," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 199-214, June.
    28. Araujo, Aloisio & Fajardo, Jose & Pascoa, Mario R., 2005. "Endogenous collateral," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(4-5), pages 439-462, August.
    29. François Le Grand & Xavier Ragot, 2025. "Optimal Fiscal Policy with Heterogeneous Agents and Capital: Should We Increase or Decrease Public Debt and Capital Taxes?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 133(7), pages 2320-2369.
    30. François Le Grand & Xavier Ragot, 2025. "Optimal Fiscal Policy with Heterogeneous Agents and Capital: Should We Increase or Decrease Public Debt and Capital Taxes?," Post-Print hal-05547657, HAL.
    31. Karl Walentin, 2014. "Housing Collateral and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 116(3), pages 635-668, July.
    32. Ben S. Bernanke, 2009. "Financial reform to address systemic risk: a speech at the Council on Foreign Relations, Washington, D.C., March 10, 2009," Speech 448, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    33. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1994. "Evaluating risky consumption paths: The role of intertemporal substitutability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 1471-1486, August.
    34. Olivier Jeanne & Anton Korinek, 2020. "Macroprudential Regulation versus mopping up after the crash," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(3), pages 1470-1497.
    35. Javier Bianchi & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2018. "Optimal Time-Consistent Macroprudential Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 588-634.
    36. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1982. "The Inefficiency of the Stock Market Equilibrium," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 49(2), pages 241-261.
    37. Gideon Bornstein & Guido Lorenzoni, 2018. "Moral Hazard Misconceptions: The Case of the Greenspan Put," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(2), pages 251-286, June.
    38. Timothy J. Kehoe & David K. Levine, 1993. "Debt-Constrained Asset Markets," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(4), pages 865-888.
    39. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g704ld0h3 is not listed on IDEAS
    40. Aoki, Kosuke & Proudman, James & Vlieghe, Gertjan, 2004. "House prices, consumption, and monetary policy: a financial accelerator approach," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 414-435, October.
    41. Gertler, Mark & Karadi, Peter, 2011. "A model of unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-34, January.
    42. Adrien Auclert & Bence Bardóczy & Matthew Rognlie & Ludwig Straub, 2021. "Using the Sequence‐Space Jacobian to Solve and Estimate Heterogeneous‐Agent Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(5), pages 2375-2408, September.
    43. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2010. "Sudden Stops, Financial Crises, and Leverage," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 1941-1966, December.
    44. Manuel A. Muñoz & Frank Smets, 2025. "The positive neutral countercyclical capital buffer," Bank of England working papers 1128, Bank of England.
    45. Chadha, Jagjit S. & Corrado, Germana & Corrado, Luisa & De Lorenzo Buratta, Ivan, 2026. "The role of macroprudential policy in times of trouble," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    46. Benigno, Gianluca & Chen, Huigang & Otrok, Christopher & Rebucci, Alessandro & Young, Eric R., 2013. "Financial crises and macro-prudential policies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 453-470.
    47. Geanakoplos, J. & Polemarchakis, H., 1985. "Existence,regularity, and constrained suboptimality of competitive allocations when the asset market is incomplete," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 1985037, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    48. Stephen Millard & Margarita Rubio & Alexandra Varadi, 2024. "The Macroprudential Toolkit: Effectiveness and Interactions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(2), pages 335-384, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Matteo Iacoviello & Ricardo Nunes & Andrea Prestipino, 2025. "Optimal Credit Market Policy," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0225, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    2. Andrea Ajello & Nina Boyarchenko & François Gourio & Andrea Tambalotti, 2022. "Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Theoretical Mechanisms," Staff Reports 1002, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    4. Górajski, Mariusz & Kuchta, Zbigniew, 2023. "Coordination and non-coordination risks of monetary and macroprudential authorities: A robust welfare analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    5. Ottonello, Pablo & Perez, Diego J. & Varraso, Paolo, 2022. "Are collateral-constraint models ready for macroprudential policy design?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    6. Akıncı, Özge & Chahrour, Ryan, 2018. "Good news is bad news: Leverage cycles and sudden stops," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 362-375.
    7. Zaretski, Aliaksandr, 2021. "Financial constraints, risk sharing, and optimal monetary policy," MPRA Paper 110757, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Ma, Chang, 2020. "Financial stability, growth and macroprudential policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    9. Arce, Fernando & Bengui, Julien & Bianchi, Javier, 2025. "Overborrowing, underborrowing, and macroprudential policy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    10. Gianluca Benigno & Andrew Foerster & Christopher Otrok & Alessandro Rebucci, 2025. "Estimating macroeconomic models of financial crises: An endogenous regime‐switching approach," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 16(1), pages 1-47, January.
    11. policy, Work stream on macroprudential & Albertazzi, Ugo & Martin, Alberto & Assouan, Emmanuelle & Tristani, Oreste & Galati, Gabriele & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2021. "The role of financial stability considerations in monetary policy and the interaction with macroprudential policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 272, European Central Bank.
    12. Andrea Ferrero & Richard Harrison & Benjamin Nelson, 2024. "House Price Dynamics, Optimal LTV Limits and the Liquidity Trap," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(2), pages 940-971.
    13. Werner, Maximilian, 2023. "Occasionally binding liquidity constraints and macroeconomic dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    14. Gertler, M. & Kiyotaki, N. & Prestipino, A., 2016. "Wholesale Banking and Bank Runs in Macroeconomic Modeling of Financial Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1345-1425, Elsevier.
    15. Garbers, Chris & Liu, Guangling, 2018. "Macroprudential policy and foreign interest rate shocks: A comparison of loan-to-value and capital requirements," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 683-698.
    16. policy, Work stream on macroprudential & Policy, Monetary & Stability, Financial & Albertazzi, Ugo & Martin, Alberto & Assouan, Emmanuelle & Tristani, Oreste & Galati, Gabriele & Vlassopoulos, Thomas , 2023. "The role of financial stability considerations in monetary policy and the interaction with macroprudential policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 272, European Central Bank.
    17. Matthieu Darracq Paries, 2018. "Financial frictions and monetary policy conduct," Erudite Ph.D Dissertations, Erudite, number ph18-01 edited by Ferhat Mihoubi, April.
    18. Devereux, Michael B. & Young, Eric R. & Yu, Changhua, 2019. "Capital controls and monetary policy in sudden-stop economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 52-74.
    19. Gersbach, Hans & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2017. "Capital regulation and credit fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 113-124.
    20. Dan Cao & Wenlan Luo & Guangyu Nie, 2023. "Global GDSGE Models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 199-225, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:182:y:2026:i:c:s0165188925001897. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.