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The global financial cycle and capital flow episodes: a wobbly link?

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  • Scheubel, Beatrice
  • Stracca, Livio
  • Tille, Cédric

Abstract

We add to the literature on the influence of the global financial cycle (GFC) and gyrations in capital flows. First, we build a new measure of the GFC based on a structural factor approach, which incorporates theoretical priors in its definition. This measure can also be decomposed in a price-based and quantity-based version of the GFC, which is novel in the literature. Second, we compare our measure to other common existing indicators of the GFC. Third, we estimate the influence of the fluctuations in the GFC on capital flow episodes (sudden stops, flights, retrenchments, surges) and currency crises, also testing for its stability and linearity. We find that the nexus between the GFC and capital flow episodes is generally consistent and not very wobbly. In line with theoretical priors, we find some evidence that the GFC is more important for sudden stops when it is more negative, i.e. the relationship is (mildly) convex, in keeping with a role for occasionally binding constraints, but the evidence for this feature is not strong. JEL Classification: F32, F33, F36, F42, F44

Suggested Citation

  • Scheubel, Beatrice & Stracca, Livio & Tille, Cédric, 2019. "The global financial cycle and capital flow episodes: a wobbly link?," Working Paper Series 2337, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20192337
    Note: 2025627
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    Cited by:

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    2. Chari, Anusha & Dilts-Stedman, Karlye & Forbes, Kristin, 2022. "Spillovers at the extremes: The macroprudential stance and vulnerability to the global financial cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    3. Xin Tian & Jan Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2022. "Alternative Measures for the Global Financial Cycle: Do They Make a Difference?," CESifo Working Paper Series 9730, CESifo.
    4. Kaufmann, Christoph, 2020. "Investment funds, monetary policy, and the global financial cycle," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224573, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Raheem, Ibrahim & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2020. "A new approach to exchange rate forecast: The role of global financial cycle and time-varying parameters," MPRA Paper 105359, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Dridi, Ichrak & Boughrara, Adel, 2023. "Flexible inflation targeting and stock market volatility: Evidence from emerging market economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    7. Annamaria de Crescenzio & Etienne Lepers, 2021. "Extreme capital flow episodes from the Global Financial Crisis to COVID-19: An exploration with monthly data," OECD Working Papers on International Investment 2021/05, OECD Publishing.
    8. Christoph Kaufmann, 2023. "Investment Funds, Monetary Policy, and the Global Financial Cycle," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 593-636.
    9. Eller, Markus & Huber, Florian & Schuberth, Helene, 2020. "How important are global factors for understanding the dynamics of international capital flows?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    10. Bank for International Settlements, 2021. "Changing patterns of capital flows," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 66, december.
    11. Scheubel, Beatrice & Stracca, Livio & Tille, Cédric, 2019. "Taming the global financial cycle: What role for the global financial safety net?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 160-182.
    12. Xin Tian & Jan Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2022. "Alternative Measures for the Global Financial Cycle: Do They Make a Difference?," CESifo Working Paper Series 9730, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital flows; global financial cycle; push factors; structural factor analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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