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International Credit Flows and Pecuniary Externalities

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  • Brunnermeier, Markus K
  • Sannikov, Yuliy

Abstract

This paper develops a dynamic two-country neoclassical stochastic growth model with incomplete markets. Short-term credit flows can be excessive and reverse suddenly. The equilibrium outcome is constrained inefficient due to pecuniary externalities. First, an undercapitalized country borrows too much since each firm does not internalize that an increase in production capacity undermines their output price, worsening their terms of trade. From an ex-ante perspective each firm undermines the natural “terms of trade hedge.” Second, sudden stops and fire sales lead to sharp price drops of illiquid capital. Capital controls or domestic macro-prudential measures that limit short-term borrowing can improve welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Brunnermeier, Markus K & Sannikov, Yuliy, 2015. "International Credit Flows and Pecuniary Externalities," CEPR Discussion Papers 10339, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10339
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    hot money; international capital flows; international credit flows; pecuniary externalities; sudden stops; terms of trade hedge;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F38 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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