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International risk sharing and commodity prices

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Berka
  • Mario J. Crucini
  • Chih-Wei Wang

Abstract

Cole and Obstfeld (1991) exposited a classic result where equilibrium movements in the terms of trade could make ex ante risk-sharing arrangements unnecessary: a unity elasticity of substitution across goods and production specialization. This paper extends their model to N countries and M commodities ( N > M ). Here the terms of trade provides insurance against commodity-specific shocks, not country-specific shocks. Using commodity-level production data at the national level and world commodity prices, we document significant terms of trade variability and positive responses of nation-specific production to terms of trade improvements. The endogenous terms of trade insurance mechanism highlighted in CO is virtually non-existent.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Berka & Mario J. Crucini & Chih-Wei Wang, 2012. "International risk sharing and commodity prices," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 45(2), pages 417-447, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:45:y:2012:i:2:p:417-447
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-137, February.
    2. Prebisch, Raúl, 1950. "The economic development of Latin America and its principal problems," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 29973, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    3. Baxter, Marianne & Crucini, Mario J, 1995. "Business Cycles and the Asset Structure of Foreign Trade," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(4), pages 821-854, November.
    4. Bidarkota, Prasad & Crucini, Mario J, 2000. "Commodity Prices and the Terms of Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(4), pages 647-666, November.
    5. Lewis, Karen K, 1996. "What Can Explain the Apparent Lack of International Consumption Risk Sharing?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 267-297, April.
    6. Kose, M. Ayhan, 2002. "Explaining business cycles in small open economies: 'How much do world prices matter?'," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 299-327, March.
    7. Mace, Barbara J, 1991. "Full Insurance in the Presence of Aggregate Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(5), pages 928-956, October.
    8. Jagdish Bhagwati, 1958. "Immiserizing Growth: A Geometrical Note," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 201-205.
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    Cited by:

    1. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Yuliy Sannikov, 2015. "International Credit Flows and Pecuniary Externalities," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 297-338, January.
    2. Devereux, Michael B. & Kollmann, Robert, 2012. "International Risk Sharing," MPRA Paper 70129, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Saif Al-Abri, Almukhtar, 2014. "How does terms-of-trade behavior shape international financial integration in primary-commodity exporting economies?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 335-353.
    4. Llosa, Luis-Gonzalo, 2013. "How Do Terms of Trade Affect Productivity? The Role of Monopolistic Output Markets," Working Papers 2013-007, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    5. Jorge Toro & Aarón Garavito & David Camilo López & Enrique Montes, 2015. "El choque petrolero y sus implicaciones en la economía colombiana," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 013829, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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