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El choque petrolero y sus implicaciones en la economía colombiana

Listed author(s):
  • Jorge Toro

    ()

    (Banco de la República de Colombia)

  • Aarón Garavito

    ()

    (Banco de la República de Colombia)

  • David Camilo López

    ()

    (Banco de la República de Colombia)

  • Enrique Montes

    ()

    (Banco de la República de Colombia)

La economía colombiana se ha visto impactada por la fuerte caída en la cotización internacional del petróleo, la cual se caracterizó por ser sorpresiva, acelerada y de magnitud considerable. Según los analistas, este choque podría ser persistente y extenderse por varios años. Sumado a lo anterior, el volumen de producción de hidrocarburos en el territorio nacional también podría caer, como resultado de la menor inversión en el sector ante los bajos precios del crudo. El presente documento hace un análisis descriptivo del choque petrolero reciente y de sus determinantes, así como de sus implicaciones para la economía colombiana. A la fecha, el desplome de los precios ha afectado los términos de intercambio del país y con ello el ingreso nacional, impactando las cuentas externas y la tasa de cambio, las finanzas públicas, la confianza de los mercados y el riesgo país. Lo anterior se ha traducido en una significativa desaceleración de la actividad económica. La respuesta de política económica ha sido coherente con un sólido marco institucional previamente establecido, que ha propiciado un ajuste ordenado de la economía a las nuevas circunstancias externas. Entre las características más importantes de dicho marco de política se destacan un régimen de inflación objetivo con flexibilidad cambiaria, una regla fiscal para el Gobierno Nacional y una política macro-prudencial que aboga por la estabilidad financiera. Classification JEL: E20, Q30, Q31, Q34, Q43, H62, H63

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 906.

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Length: 63
Date of creation: Oct 2015
Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:906
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