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El choque petrolero y sus implicaciones en la economía colombiana

Author

Listed:
  • Jorge Toro

    () (Banco de la República de Colombia)

  • Aarón Garavito

    () (Banco de la República de Colombia)

  • David Camilo López

    () (Banco de la República de Colombia)

  • Enrique Montes

    () (Banco de la República de Colombia)

Abstract

La economía colombiana se ha visto impactada por la fuerte caída en la cotización internacional del petróleo, la cual se caracterizó por ser sorpresiva, acelerada y de magnitud considerable. Según los analistas, este choque podría ser persistente y extenderse por varios años. Sumado a lo anterior, el volumen de producción de hidrocarburos en el territorio nacional también podría caer, como resultado de la menor inversión en el sector ante los bajos precios del crudo. El presente documento hace un análisis descriptivo del choque petrolero reciente y de sus determinantes, así como de sus implicaciones para la economía colombiana. A la fecha, el desplome de los precios ha afectado los términos de intercambio del país y con ello el ingreso nacional, impactando las cuentas externas y la tasa de cambio, las finanzas públicas, la confianza de los mercados y el riesgo país. Lo anterior se ha traducido en una significativa desaceleración de la actividad económica. La respuesta de política económica ha sido coherente con un sólido marco institucional previamente establecido, que ha propiciado un ajuste ordenado de la economía a las nuevas circunstancias externas. Entre las características más importantes de dicho marco de política se destacan un régimen de inflación objetivo con flexibilidad cambiaria, una regla fiscal para el Gobierno Nacional y una política macro-prudencial que aboga por la estabilidad financiera.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge Toro & Aarón Garavito & David Camilo López & Enrique Montes, 2015. "El choque petrolero y sus implicaciones en la economía colombiana," Borradores de Economia 906, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:906
    DOI: 10.32468/be.906
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    Cited by:

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    2. Neville Francis & Sergio Restrepo-Angel, 2018. "Sectoral and aggregate response to oil price shocks in the Colombian economy: SVAR and Local Projections approach," Borradores de Economia 1055, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Carlos David Ardila-Dueñas & Hernán Rincón-Castro, 2019. "¿Cómo y qué tanto impacta la deuda pública a las tasas de interés de mercado?," Borradores de Economia 1077, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra & Jorge Enrique Ramos-Forero & Ligia Marcela Parrado-Galvis & Hector Manuel Zarate-Solano, 2016. "Bonanzas y crisis de la actividad petrolera y su efecto sobre la economía colombiana," Borradores de Economia 961, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Juan Camilo Anzoátegui Zapata & Juan Camilo Galvis, 2019. "Efectos de la comunicación del banco central sobre los títulos públicos: evidencia empírica para Colombia," Revista Cuadernos de Economía, Universidad Nacional de Colombia -FCE - CID, vol. 38(77), pages 337-364, July.
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    7. Alonso Cifuentes, Julio César & Jaramillo Flechas, Luis Eduardo, 2019. "Descomponiendo el Efecto del Gasto Público en la Tasa de Cambio Real: Una Aproximación al Caso Colombiano || Decomposing the Effect of Public Spending on the Real Exchange Rate: An Approximation to th," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 27(1), pages 91-114, June.
    8. Adrian Martinez-Osorio & Deicy J. Cristiano-Botia & Celina Gaitan-Maldonado & Diego A. Sandoval-Herrera, 2019. "La Inversión Directa de Colombia en el Exterior (IDCE) y su renta: determinantes y dinámica reciente," Borradores de Economia 1068, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
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    10. Camila Agudelo-Rivera & Nicolas Fajardo-Acosta & Camilo González-Sabogal & Enrique Montes-Uribe & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño, 2019. "Llegadas de turistas internacionales a Colombia durante 2001-2017: evolución, características y determinantes," Borradores de Economia 1064, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Petróleo; sector externo; ingresos fiscales; términos de intercambio.;

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • Q30 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - General
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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