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Determinantes de los precios internacionales de los bienes básicos

Author

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  • Jair Ojeda Joya

    ()

  • Joan Granados

    ()

  • Carolina Arteaga

Abstract

En este trabajo se analiza la respuesta dinámica de los precios de los bienes básicos más relevantes para la evolución de la inflación en el consumidor en Colombia ante choques en un conjunto de determinantes. El documento está basado en modelos vectoriales autorregresivos estructurales en los cuales los choques exógenos son identificados mediante restricciones a los efectos contemporáneos entre las variables del sistema. Para la estimación se utilizan datos trimestrales para el período 1980q1 a 2010q3. De acuerdo con los resultados, la política monetaria, el tipo de cambio multilateral de Estados Unidos y el producto interior bruto de países desarrollados y emergentes explican un porcentaje considerable de la varianza del error de pronóstico de los precios de los bienes básicos. Adicionalmente, en términos generales, la respuesta de los precios ante un choque contractivo de la política monetaria es negativa, instantánea y estadísticamente significativa. Los choques al tipo de cambio muestran una relación negativa con los precios aunque no siempre significativa, y en la mayoría de los casos las variables de actividad real tanto de países desarrollados como emergentes tienen una relación positiva con los precios considerados.

Suggested Citation

  • Jair Ojeda Joya & Joan Granados & Carolina Arteaga, 2013. "Determinantes de los precios internacionales de los bienes básicos," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República - ESPE, vol. 31(71), pages 85-107, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000107:010888
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16.
    2. A. Anzuini & M. J. Lombardi & P. Pagano, 2013. "The Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks on Commodity Prices," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 125-150, September.
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    4. Yu-Chin Chen & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2010. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 125(3), pages 1145-1194.
    5. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
    6. Akram, Q. Farooq, 2009. "Commodity prices, interest rates and the dollar," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 838-851, November.
    7. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Understanding Crude Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 179-206.
    8. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jorge Toro & Aarón Garavito & David Camilo López & Enrique Montes, 2015. "El choque petrolero y sus implicaciones en la economía colombiana," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 013829, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    2. repec:nax:conyad:v:64:y:2019:i:1:p:31-32 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Precios de bienes básicos; VAR estructural; Precio del petróleo; Cointegración;

    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

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