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Determinantes de los precios internacionales de los bienes básicos

Author

Listed:
  • Carolina Arteaga
  • Joan Granados
  • Jair Ojeda Joya

Abstract

En este trabajo se analiza la respuesta dinámica de los precios de los bienes básicos más relevantes para la evolución de la inflación en el consumidor en Colombia ante choques en un conjunto de determinantes. El documento está basado en modelos vectoriales autorregresivos estructurales en los cuales los choques exógenos son identificados mediante restricciones a los efectos contemporáneos entre las variables del sistema. Para la estimación se utilizan datos trimestrales para el período 1980q1 a 2010q3. De acuerdo con los resultados, la política monetaria, el tipo de cambio multilateral de Estados Unidos y el producto interior bruto de países desarrollados y emergentes explican un porcentaje considerable de la varianza del error de pronóstico de los precios de los bienes básicos. Adicionalmente, en términos generales, la respuesta de los precios ante un choque contractivo de la política monetaria es negativa, instantánea y estadísticamente significativa. Los choques al tipo de cambio muestran una relación negativa con los precios aunque no siempre significativa, y en la mayoría de los casos las variables de actividad real tanto de países desarrollados como emergentes tienen una relación positiva con los precios considerados.

Suggested Citation

  • Carolina Arteaga & Joan Granados & Jair Ojeda Joya, 2013. "Determinantes de los precios internacionales de los bienes básicos," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 31(71), pages 85-107, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:ensayo:v:31:y:2013:i:71:p:85-107
    DOI: 10.32468/Espe.7101
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jorge Toro & Aarón Garavito & David Camilo López & Enrique Montes, 2015. "El choque petrolero y sus implicaciones en la economía colombiana," Borradores de Economia 13829, Banco de la Republica.
    2. Gonzalo Rondinone & Esteban Otto Thomasz & Ana Silvia Vilker, 2019. "The economic cost of extreme and severe droughts in soybean production in Argentina," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 64(1), pages 31-32, Enero-Mar.
    3. Juan Manuel Candelo-Viafara & Andrés Felipe Oviedo-Gómez, 2020. "Efecto derrame del mercado internacional en las economías latinoamericanas: los casos de Chile, Brasil, Colombia y México," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, vol. 39(70), pages 107-138, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    precios de bienes básicos; VAR estructural; Precio del Petróleo; Cointegracion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

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