IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/1997-009.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Are Business Cycles Different in Asia and Latin America?

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Willy A Hoffmaister
  • Mr. Jorge Roldos

Abstract

This paper compares business cycles in Asia and in Latin America using structural vector autoregression analysis with panel data. The evidence for countries in these regions suggests that (i) the main source of output fluctuations is supply shocks, even in the short run; (ii) the real exchange rate is driven mostly by fiscal shocks; and (iii) terms of trade shocks are important for trade balance fluctuations but not for output or real exchange rate fluctuations. However, in Latin America, as opposed to Asia, output is affected more by external and domestic demand shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Willy A Hoffmaister & Mr. Jorge Roldos, 1997. "Are Business Cycles Different in Asia and Latin America?," IMF Working Papers 1997/009, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1997/009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=1930
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Capital Inflows Problem: Concepts And Issues," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(3), pages 54-66, July.
    3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Capital Inflows Problem: Concepts And Issues," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(3), pages 54-66, July.
    4. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476.
    5. Richard H. Clarida & Jordi Gali, 1994. "Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations: how important are nominal shocks?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
    6. Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Razin, Assaf, 1996. "Current Account Sustainability: Selected East Asian and Latin American Experiences," CEPR Discussion Papers 1509, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Lastrapes, William D, 1992. "Sources of Fluctuations in Real and Nominal Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(3), pages 530-539, August.
    8. Eduardo Borensztein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 236-261, June.
    9. Devereux, John & Connolly, Michael, 1996. "Commercial policy, the terms of trade and the real exchange rate revisited," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 81-99, June.
    10. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1989. "Fiscal deficits and relative prices in a growing world economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 461-484, May.
    11. Jong-Wha Lee, 1993. "International Trade, Distortions, and Long-Run Economic Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(2), pages 299-328, June.
    12. Ahmed, Shaghil & Ickes, Barry W. & Ping Wang & Byung Sam Yoo, 1993. "International Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 335-359, June.
    13. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-137, February.
    14. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January.
    15. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    16. Michael Bruno & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1985. "Economics of Worldwide Stagflation," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number brun85-1, January-J.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hoffmaister, Alexander W. & Roldos, Jorge E., 2001. "The Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Brazil and Korea," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 213-239, April.
    2. Brigitte Desroches, 2004. "The Transmission of World Shocks to Emerging-Market Countries: An Empirical Analysis," Staff Working Papers 04-44, Bank of Canada.
    3. John H. Rogers, 1995. "Real shocks and real exchange rates in really long-term data," International Finance Discussion Papers 493, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Kempa, Bernd, 2005. "An oversimplified inquiry into the sources of exchange rate variability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 439-458, May.
    5. Roland Craigwell & Winston Moore & Kim Coppin, 2005. "Financial Innovation and Efficiency in the Barbadian Banking Industry," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 83-100, July-Dece.
    6. Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(1), pages 1-5.
    7. Trevor Campbell & Keisha Gill, 2005. "A look at Inward Foreign Direct Investment Transactions for Barbados," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 131-143, July-Dece.
    8. Valcarcel, Victor J., 2013. "Exchange rate volatility and the time-varying effects of aggregate shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 822-843.
    9. Courtney Allen & Wayne Robinson, 2005. "Monetary Policy Rules and the Transmission Mechanism in Jamaica," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 101-129, July-Dece.
    10. Brigitte Desroches, 2005. "The Transmission of World Shocks to Emergingmarket Countries: an Empirical Analysis," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 145-165, July-Dece.
    11. Kempa Bernd, 2005. "How Important are Nominal Shocks in Driving Real Exchange Rates? / Wie bedeutend sind nominale Schocks zur Erklärung realer Wechselkursbewegungen?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 225(2), pages 192-204, April.
    12. Rogers, John H., 1999. "Monetary shocks and real exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 269-288, December.
    13. Lanteri , Luis N., 2012. "Choques macroeconómicos al sector externo. Evidencia para la Argentina (1980-2011)/Macroeconomic Shocks to the External Sector. Evidence for Argentina (1980-2011)," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 30, pages 1061(24.)-1, Diciembre.
    14. Kiptui, Moses, 2015. "Sources of Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Kenya: The Relative Importance of Real and Nominal Shocks," MPRA Paper 61515, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. van Amano, Robert A & Norden, Simon, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Oil Prices," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 683-694, November.
    16. Michael Funke, 2000. "Macroeconomic Shocks in Euroland vs. the UK: Supply, Demand, or Nominal?," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 37, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
    17. Shambaugh, Jay, 2008. "A new look at pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 560-591, June.
    18. Candian, Giacomo, 2019. "Information frictions and real exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 189-205.
    19. Anders Bergvall, 2004. "What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Nordic Countries," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 106(2), pages 315-337, June.
    20. Nicolas E. Magud & Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2018. "Capital Controls: Myth and Reality--A Portfolio Balance Approach," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 19(1), pages 1-47, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1997/009. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.