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Identification of fluctuations origins in the Business Cycle in Morocco: Reduced DSGE modelling

Author

Listed:
  • Hajar Fanchy

    (Economic Performance and Logistics - UH2C - Université Hassan II de Casablanca = University of Hassan II Casablanca = جامعة الحسن الثاني (ar))

  • Amal El Mzabi

    (Economic Performance and Logistics - UH2C - Université Hassan II de Casablanca = University of Hassan II Casablanca = جامعة الحسن الثاني (ar))

  • Ahmed Hefnaoui

    (Economic Performance and Logistics - UH2C - Université Hassan II de Casablanca = University of Hassan II Casablanca = جامعة الحسن الثاني (ar))

Abstract

This article explores the origins of cyclical macroeconomic fluctuations in Morocco. A reduced Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model is used to identify these fluctuations, with a specific focus on demand, supply and monetary policy shocks. The study leverages data spanning from the first quarter of 2007 to the fourth quarter of 2022.The results indicates that supply pertubations predominantly drive production and inflation fluctuations within Morocco. Our economy tends to react more sensitively to supply-side factors, such as productivity fluctuations, supply chain interruptions and agricultural supply dynamics. The implications of these findings are significant for policy-makers, revealing the necessity to adjust and adapt their policies in order to stabilise the economy and promote economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Hajar Fanchy & Amal El Mzabi & Ahmed Hefnaoui, 2023. "Identification of fluctuations origins in the Business Cycle in Morocco: Reduced DSGE modelling," Post-Print hal-04304857, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04304857
    DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.10149741
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04304857v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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