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Determinants of Crude Oil Prices: Supply, Demand, Cartel or Speculation?

Author

Listed:
  • Andreas Breitenfellner

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)

  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma

    (Vienna University of Economics and Business, Institute for Fiscal and Monetary Policy)

  • Catherine Keppel

Abstract

Understanding the factors driving crude oil price developments is essential for assessing their effects. This paper examines four groups classifying a total of some thirty potential determinants of crude oil prices: fundamental factors, i.e. supply and demand, factors relating to the structure of the crude oil market (OPEC), and factors associated with the behavior of financial market participants (speculation). Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) allows us to analyze a multitude of potential explanatory variables under model uncertainty and to quantify their robustness in explaining oil price inflation (price changes in percent). The results of our analysis suggest that the significance of individual factors varies over time. While no single factor dominates throughout the entire period under review (1983 to 2008), models explaining short-term movements in oil prices should always include headline inflation indicators and take into account the persistence of oil prices. In the 1990s, also the production quota of Saudi Arabia – a factor relating to the market structure – played a significant role; in the 2000s, both supply and demand (European demand for oil and refining capacities) have been highly important factors. The results of our analysis do not preclude the possibility that determinants other than those discussed here may become significant in the long run. While fundamental shortage conditions play a key role in driving up the price.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Breitenfellner & Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Catherine Keppel, 2009. "Determinants of Crude Oil Prices: Supply, Demand, Cartel or Speculation?," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 111-136.
    • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbmp:y:2009:i:4:b:6
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    Cited by:

    1. Miao, Hong & Ramchander, Sanjay & Wang, Tianyang & Yang, Dongxiao, 2017. "Influential factors in crude oil price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 77-88.
    2. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2018. "The gruesome murder of Jamal Khashoggi : Saudi Arabia's new economy dream at risk ?," Papers 1812.11336, arXiv.org.
    3. Drachal, Krzysztof, 2021. "Forecasting selected energy commodities prices with Bayesian dynamic finite mixtures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    4. Eric Fosu Oteng-Abayie & Prosper Awuni Ayinbilla & Maame Esi Eshun, 2018. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Crude Oil Demand in Ghana," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(4), pages 873-888, August.
    5. Kurt Kratena & Ina Meyer & Mark Sommer, 2014. "Alternative Szenarien zur Entwicklung des Energieverbrauchs in Österreich. Der Einfluss der CO2- und Energiepreise bis 2030," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 87(6), pages 427-441, June.
    6. de Albuquerquemello, Vinícius Phillipe & de Medeiros, Rennan Kertlly & da Nóbrega Besarria, Cássio & Maia, Sinézio Fernandes, 2018. "Forecasting crude oil price: Does exist an optimal econometric model?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 578-591.
    7. Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios & Thomas, Alice Carole & Wang, Jianxin, 2023. "The economic impact of daily volatility persistence on energy markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    8. Nizar, Muhammad Afdi, 2012. "Dampak Fluktuasi Harga Minyak Dunia Terhadap Perekonomian Indonesia [The Impact of World Oil Prices Fluctuation on Indonesia’s Economy]," MPRA Paper 65601, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Krzysztof Drachal, 2018. "Determining Time-Varying Drivers of Spot Oil Price in a Dynamic Model Averaging Framework," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-24, May.
    10. N. N., 2014. "WIFO-Monatsberichte, Heft 6/2014," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 87(6), June.
    11. Robert Socha & Piotr Wdowiński, 2018. "Crude oil price and speculative activity: a cointegration analysis," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 10(3), pages 263-304, September.
    12. Saleh Mothana Obadi & Matej Korecek, 2018. "The Crude Oil Price and Speculations: Investigation Using Granger Causality Test," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(3), pages 275-282.
    13. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Manickavasagam, Jeevananthan & Visalakshmi, S., 2022. "Effects of fundamentals, geopolitical risk and expectations factors on crude oil prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    14. Apergis, Nicholas & Hayat, Tasawar & Saeed, Tareq, 2021. "US partisan conflict uncertainty and oil prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    15. Drachal, Krzysztof, 2018. "Comparison between Bayesian and information-theoretic model averaging: Fossil fuels prices example," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 208-251.
    16. Jorge Toro & Aarón Garavito & David Camilo López & Enrique Montes, 2015. "El choque petrolero y sus implicaciones en la economía colombiana," Borradores de Economia 13829, Banco de la Republica.
    17. Robert Socha & Piotr Wdowiński, 2018. "Tendencje zmian cen na światowym rynku ropy naftowej po 2000 roku," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 1, pages 103-135.
    18. Refk Selmi & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Mark Wohar, 2022. "What drives most jumps in global crude oil prices? Fundamental shortage conditions, Cartel, geopolitics or the behavior of market financial participants," Post-Print hal-03793866, HAL.
    19. Kurt Kratena & Ina Meyer & Mark Sommer, 2013. "Energy Scenarios 2030. Model Projections of Energy Demand as a Basis to Quantify Austria's Greenhouse Gas Emissions," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 46702, April.
    20. Refk Selmi & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Mark E. Wohar, 2023. "What drives most jumps in global crude oil prices? Fundamental shortage conditions, cartel, geopolitics or the behaviour of financial market participants," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 598-618, March.
    21. Luqman Olawale & Okewale Joel, 2017. "Factors Influencing Pricing Decision: Evidence from Non-Financial Firms in Nigeria," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 13(1), pages 157-172, February.
    22. Obayelu, Abiodun & Ogunmola, Omotoso & Obayelu, Oluwakemi & Adeyemi, Oluwatosin, 2021. "Crude Oil Price Shocks and Food Production Output in Oil Producing and Exporting Countries: The Case Study of Nigeria," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315394, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    23. Rodrigo A. Morales Fernández Rafaelly & Roberto J. Santillán-Salgado, 2021. "Oil price effect on sectoral stock returns: A conditional covariance and correlation approach for Mexico," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, Enero - M.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil price; Bayesian model averaging;

    JEL classification:

    • Q30 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - General
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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